. Has the RMB bottomed out? The appreciation of the US dollar wants to hide the truth, and the betrayal of relatives may become "paper tigers"!
The original meaning of concealing the world is to use various clever disguises to confuse the public and deceive others on board the ship, so that they can follow the team of people safely and smoothly across the sea without realizing it; it is a metaphor for deliberately using disguise to confuse and deceive the other party, so that the other party can relax their guard and act secretly, thereby achieving the goal of winning.
Federal has enabled the fastest rate hike in in history. started the first rate hike in March 2022. By September, Federal hikes five times, and the federal benchmark rate hikes reached the range of 3% to 3.25%. The five times were 25 basis points, 50 basis points, 75 basis points, 75 basis points, and 75 basis points, with a total rate hike of 300 basis points; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that a rate hike of 100-125 basis points will be raised in 2022.
The United States' interest rate hike and interest rate cut are not only to curb the severe domestic inflation , to develop the US economy, but also to flee the world's wool and let global capital flow back to the United States. Of course, we also hope that global high-quality industries will return to the United States.
Although interest rate hikes can suppress inflation, the high tariffs of the United States are undoubtedly an important factor pushing up US prices. However, the United States will not cancel it and must make the Federal Reserve raise interest rates wildly. The method of a sharp appreciation of the US dollar suppresses inflation. does not care about the damage to the global economy due to the sharp appreciation of the US dollar. This also proves that the important purpose of the US rate hike is to loot global wealth.
The United States' trick to fetch the world is mainly to take advantage of the world's advantages of the US dollar, first of all, and keep interest rates low. This has caused the US dollar to flood, push up global asset prices, and creates enough bubbles. When the global capital market bubble was big enough, the US dollar quickly raised interest rates, causing the US dollar to flow back, until the asset bubble in the capital market burst, and the United States acquired low-priced assets around the world and fleece.
Since 1994, the Federal Reserve has had a total of 4 interest rate hike cycles. After 4 interest rate hikes, the United States has achieved its goal, which not only passed on domestic inflation and solved the domestic economic crisis , but also greatly increased its national strength and became the world's most powerful country!
However, the United States frequently robbed global wealth through the routine of raising interest rates and lowering interest rates, which made countries around the world miserable. Of course, countries around the world also understand the routine of the United States. All countries have established their own firewalls based on national strength and have some experience in dealing with it. , such as the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the global financial crisis in 2008, are closely related to the Federal Reserve's hike. The United States wants to hide the truth again, and it is more difficult to rob global wealth.
The purpose of the Federal Reserve's crazy interest rate hikes to appreciate the US dollar has been achieved. In 2022, the index appreciates by 18.4%; also causes the currencies of major economies in the world to depreciate significantly against the US dollar; In 2022, the euro depreciates by 14.9% against the US dollar, the yen depreciates by 25.3%, the Korean won depreciates by 20.7%, the pound depreciates by 20.1%, and the Indian rupee depreciates by 9.3%; but Russian ruble is exceptional, and 23.3% against the US dollar in 2022.
From the above data, it can be seen that the currencies of US allies depreciate significantly, while the Russian rupee that has left the US dollar appreciates instead; American politician Kissinger once said that is dangerous to be the enemy of the United States, but being an ally of the United States is fatal. This sentence well describes the dilemma faced by American allies.
USD can be said to be betrayal of all relatives; Russia, India, Japan, Germany, Italy, Indonesia , Pakistan , Cuba , Hungary , Brazil , South Africa, Kazakhstan , Belarus , Turkey , Qatar , UAE, Angola , Venezuela , Iraq , Malaysia , Thailand, Romania , Spain, ml5 Ireland , Netherlands , Armenia , Portugal, Kyrgyzstan , Iran , Israel , Lithuania , Kuwait , Nigeria , Brunei , Myanmar , Switzerland , Sweden , Cambodia , El Salvador , Paraguay and other More than 38 countries including emerging markets and Europe have started the process of de-dollar centralization in their own ways.
De-dollarization has become a trend, which has not been encountered in the United States' previous global model of appreciation and harvesting. When the world does not use or significantly reduces the use of the US dollar, it is naturally difficult for the US dollar to easily loot global wealth, and the betrayal of relatives and relatives may become "paper tigers".
In fact, the United States creates the Ukrainian crisis, the surface reason is to help Ukraine and curb Russia, but the actual essence is to harvest the wealth of EU , because the euro has seriously threatened the world currency status of the US dollar. The top three global settlement currencies in are the US dollar, the euro and the British pound, accounting for 40.5%, 36.5% and 5.8% respectively; if the euro surpasses the US dollar, it is absolutely unbearable for the United States.
In this round of crazy appreciation of the US dollar, the RMB was also dragged down by it. The RMB depreciated against the US dollar by 13.1% in 2022. However, as the engine of global economic growth, the RMB has a solid economic foundation. Since the 2008 financial crisis (1 US dollar against 7.3 RMB, the lowest of RMB 1 US dollar against 7.25 RMB in 2022), the RMB has actually appreciated against the US dollar.
If the US dollar had not appreciated wildly in 2022, the appreciation rate of the RMB against the US dollar was very large. Moreover, the long-term appreciation trend of the RMB against the US dollar is very obvious. This is mainly because China's economy has been steadily growing and the proportion of the global economy has also steadily increased.
China National Bureau of Statistics reported that from 2013 to 2021, China's average contribution rate to world economic growth reached 30%; in 2012, China's total economic output accounted for 11.3% of the global economy, and reached 18.5% in 2021.
In 2021, the total global trade volume was US$28.5 trillion, and China's total international trade volume was US$6.06 trillion (approximately RMB 39.1 trillion), the world's first; the United States printed money on a large scale, buying and buying globally, but the total amount was only US$4.6 trillion, which was only second in the world.
USD 0 USD crazy appreciation is not how strong the US economy is, but Western economies such as the EU and Japan are worse than the United States, coupled with the results of the Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate hikes and the US government's global creation of crisis; But the appreciation of the US dollar is unsustainable, especially in the face of the Chinese RMB with a stable economy.
The conditions for the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in a large trend are very solid. The normal depreciation of the RMB will not exceed 7.5. On the contrary, after the US dollar continues to appreciate in the short term, the US export pressure is high, and the interest expenditure on treasury bonds (30 trillion US bonds years interest exceeds one trillion, and the annual fiscal revenue of the US dollar is only 4.6 trillion), and the pressure of depreciation of the US dollar is high, especially when global de-dollarization becomes a trend.
2. US dollar index, Dow Jones index , Nasdaq index trend analysis
US dollar index continued to rise under the stimulus of the Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate hike, with a maximum of 114.8; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell aims to control the US CPI within 2%, but the data of 8.3% in August is very high, and the market expects that there will be 100-125 basis points to raise interest rates in 2022; but the sharp rise in the US dollar has caused US bond yields to rise, and the opportunity for a debt crisis in the United States has risen.
1 Dow Jones Index rose 1.88%, Nasdaq Index rose 2.05%, and S&P 500 Index rose 1.971%; the index position stopped falling and rising simultaneously in the low range of June 2022, and the market entered a volatile or rebound opportunity.
At the same time, US stock leader Tesla slightly rose 1.72%, Amazon was 3.154%, and Apple fell 1.27%. The leading stocks differentiated, indicating that the bulls and bears are still hesitating at this position.
3. Shanghai Composite Index , ChiNext Index Trend Analysis
A shares A shares As a result of the simultaneous rise in US stocks, the index showed differentiation; the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.13%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.18%; after the index continued to fall, there was a small opportunity to continue to fall sharply, and there was a technical need for rebound and fluctuations.
4. Summary of Wenqutang stock market trading experience
In the bottom area of the stock market, analyze and study sectors that were wrongly killed, seriously undervalued sectors, especially industries that can drive the index rise, after the market bottoms out and rises, this type of sector has certain opportunities.
brokerage sector began to decline in July 2020, with a decline cycle of more than 24 months. Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities have fallen below their net assets, and the leading CITIC Securities is close to net assets; this is relatively rare in the historical market of the securities sector, and this sector is worthy of focus research!
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