Recently, China Evergrande (03333) is full of momentum, leading the internal housing sector to soar one after another, causing such a spectacular scene to come: At the order of China Evergrande, all real estate companies charged forward and broke through the "air force" nest of the stock market.
The internal housing sector has fully launched its firepower, although it benefits from the right time, place, people and various factors, the most important thing cannot be ignored is that one of the most powerful ammunitions in this "Air Force Annihilation War" is the hot sales of various real estate companies since 2017.
Now, May has passed and half a year is coming. According to statistics, many real estate companies' sales in the first five months of 2017 increased by 1, 2 or 3 times. The other side of the
coin is that according to the monitoring of Zhitong Finance, from the perspective of the industry average increase, the sales increase in the first five months has been significantly lower than the increase in the first four months.
From this point of view, the effects of the property market regulation policies that have been continuously strengthened since March this year have begun to gradually emerge. The real estate winter is approaching. Can those real estate companies that underperform their peers survive? Most of the time, they can only seek more blessings.
The coldness behind the prosperity
Previously, Zhitong Finance had sorted out the sales data of 24 domestic real estate companies in the first four months of 2017, and now we sorted out the sales data of these real estate companies in the first five months. In comparison, the coldness of the internal housing sector under the regulation of the real estate market.
is no suspense. The top three real estate companies in the first five months of 2017 were Country Garden (02007), Vanke (02202), and China Evergrande, with an amount of up to 244.22 billion yuan (the same unit below), 228.05 billion yuan, and 182.97 billion yuan.
Single According to the sales data in May, Country Garden has benefited from the hot sales in third- and fourth-tier cities, and its performance has maintained rapid growth, firmly ranking in the sales ranking with a monthly sales of 40.06 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that the position of "second" in monthly sales in 2017 changed significantly for the first time, from Vanke to China Evergrande.
In the previous sales championship competition, China Evergrande's sales in 2016 once exceeded Vanke and became the annual champion. However, after entering 2017, China Evergrande's monthly sales have been lagging behind Vanke. Until May, the company once again surpassed Vanke's 35.89 billion with 38.19 billion, becoming the second-tier player.
is more than that. If currency exchange is carried out, then China Evergrande's sales and market value both exceeded HK$200 billion in May. In addition, Country Garden's market value also exceeded HK$200 billion in May. The two not only outperformed Vanke in sales, but also closely matched Vanke in terms of market value.
In addition, another team that performed well in the first four months: Sunac China (01918) and Longfor Real Estate (00960) still performed strongly in May. Sunac China's contract sales in the first five months were 83.33 billion yuan, an increase of 81% year-on-year, of which the contract sales amount was 80.31 billion yuan, an increase of 92% year-on-year. Longfor Real Estate's sales in the first five months were 75.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 151%.
From the perspective of year-on-year growth, 22 of the 24 real estate companies have positive growth, with the highest increase being Jinde Commercial Real Estate (00535), reaching 290%. In addition, Guorui Real Estate (02329) and Ruian Real Estate (00272) are still dragging their feet, showing negative growth, at -18.4% and -78% respectively.
Single judging from the superficial data of these 24 real estate companies, there is no doubt that sales in the first five months were still booming, but under the prosperity, there are also undercurrents, and the chill is quietly coming. The following points can be used as reference.
1. A total of 13 real estate companies' sales in May fell month-on-month compared with April.
2. The increase declined. The year-on-year average increase in sales in the first five months was 55.57%, nearly 11 percentage points lower than the average increase in sales in the first four months of sales.
3. The median year-on-year sales increase in the first five months was 47.07%, 9 percentage points lower than 56% in the first four months.
The drama of big fish swallowing small fish is being staged
The real estate winter is coming, and it is a good time for big fish to eat small fish.
According to the data, the sales of the top three real estate companies in the first five months of 2017 was 655.24 billion yuan, while the sales of 24 real estate companies were 113.9857 billion yuan. The former accounted for 57.48% of the latter, and it still maintained nearly 60% of the level, which means that the industry concentration is still very high.
In the context of the strong always being strong, real estate companies also have to face the harsh external environment.
First of all, the demand side was suppressed, and the effects of escalating property market regulation policies in various places have emerged. The real estate market in many cities has been cold. For example, the volume and price of second-hand houses in Beijing and Shanghai have fallen recently, and the transaction prices of newly built commercial housing in Shenzhen have fallen for 8 consecutive months. At the same time, local banks have raised loan interest rates to varying degrees and further stimulated home buyers to enter a wait-and-see period.
In addition, on the supply side, the data shows that more than 20 regions indicate that they want to increase land supply. In particular, Beijing, Nanjing and other places have been the first to "open warehouses and release grain" recently to increase land supply.
In addition to regulating the supply and demand of real estate, real estate finance has also shrunk in recent times, and off-balance sheet business of banks has been reduced. Real estate companies' financing paths through major channels such as bank credit, trusts, private placement, bond issuance, and funds have also been limited. In addition, real estate companies' overseas bond issuance routes have also been intercepted.
According to data released by CRIC on June 5, 108 real estate companies had newly raised 57.969 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.3%. CRIC pointed out that from the perspective of financing structure, bank loans fell by 29.67% month-on-month. At the same time, affected by the fluctuations in the bond market, the issuance of bills and bonds of real estate companies has significantly reduced, a month-on-month decrease of 49.9%. In May, real estate companies issued overseas bonds to zero.
It can be said that real estate is now cold and real estate companies are hit by many aspects. China's real estate market is ushering in the fate of 2008 and 2009, that is, big real estate developers are reshuffled, and small real estate developers are facing the fate of being eliminated. Industry mergers such as
have begun. From the end of May, Longshi Green Real Estate (00106) swallowed Shaanxi Changtai Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. in one bite, to the recent plan to acquire all equity and sales loans of Shanghai property development project company Winnamax Investment Pte. Ltd. During this period, the drama of small real estate companies being merged has been staged.
As Snowball's senior investor "Zhenghe Qisheng Tianshu" said: Real estate is a sustainable industry with cyclical fluctuations, alternating spring, summer, autumn and winter. However, the industry concentration continues to increase unstoppable, so now is the strong leader in Platinum for ten years, and the living space of small and medium-sized real estate developers is squeezed smaller and smaller. He pointed out that small and medium-sized real estate developers should sell their projects to become shareholders of strong leading real estate developers, saving worries, effort and making a lot of money.
At present, Shenzhen Holdings (00604) is practicing this. On May 25, Shenzhen Holdings announced that it plans to sell real estate business to Evergrande Real Estate Group for a total cash consideration of 5.425 billion yuan. A few days later, Shenzhen Holdings announced that it plans to invest 5.5 billion yuan in Evergrande Real Estate in exchange for approximately 2.05% of its expanded equity.
Mainland real estate companies are making big moves into Hong Kong
Although the real estate market regulation has become stricter, under the support of hot sales in the past few months, real estate companies are hoarding land everywhere, and at the same time, they have also begun to focus on Hong Kong and enter the land market in Hong Kong.
latest statistics show that in the first five months of 2017, the total land transfer income of the 50 cities with the largest number of land transfers in the country reached 1010.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 759.46 billion yuan in the first five months of 2016, an increase of 33%.
In the Hong Kong land market, according to statistics from JLL, based on the total transaction amount, the proportion of Hong Kong residential land acquired by Chinese real estate developers through government sales of land continues to rise, only 1% in 2011, and all residential land tendered by government in Hong Kong has been acquired by mainland real estate developers this year.
In addition, according to data from Colliers International, from the beginning of 2016 to the first quarter of this year, mainland real estate developers bid for 10 pieces of land in the Hong Kong market, with a total cost of HK$58.89 billion, accounting for 57.7% of the total land bidding transaction amount in Hong Kong during the same period.
Some analysts pointed out that many cities in the mainland adopted policies such as limiting the highest price and circuit breaking lottery when auctioning land, which made it difficult for some real estate companies to acquire land and turned their attention to Hong Kong. At the same time, the competition for residential development in the mainland is fierce, and the profit margin of real estate companies is constantly being compressed. In contrast, Hong Kong's residential development profits are more attractive. In addition, mainland real estate developers choose to invest in Hong Kong is also a way to achieve asset allocation, preservation of value and diversify investment.
Based on this, the analysis believes that domestic capital will still actively buy land in Hong Kong in the future.
As early as February this year, Longfor Real Estate joined hands with Country Garden Pacific to win a residential land in Hong Kong Ap Lei Chau , which attracted strong attention from the industry.On May 16, Country Garden Holdings and Longfor Real Estate jointly acquired a residential land plot in Kai Tak New District, Kowloon, Hong Kong, with a total price of HK$7.23 billion (approximately RMB 6.396 billion), equivalent to a floor price of approximately RMB 120,600 per square meter.
In addition, recently, Xuhui Holdings Group has made frequent acquisitions. On June 8, the company announced that it plans to acquire 50% of the equity and sales loans of Hong Kong property development company Wonder Sign Limited for HK$664 million.
Domestic real estate companies are still keen on land acquisition in Hong Kong, and they are determined to break through the siege of mainland regulation and expand their business to Hong Kong. The good show has just begun. Can these domestic real estate companies' business in the Hong Kong market become a strong profit growth point when the company's sales in the mainland are weak?
