Many people find it strange that it is not an agreement; why does crude oil continue to rise from 10% to fall from 10%? [Follow at 20:00 pm, G20 National Energy Ministers' Meeting] In summary: methanol has a large fundamentals, capital is long, and technical side is large; subseq

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OPEC+ After the meeting was implemented,

Keywords: range adjustment, continue to move upward.

The hottest OPEC+ conference on the market has been implemented in the past two days, but it has left a mess. The final result of the

meeting was: OPEC+ confirmed a 10 million barrels per day oil production cut, effective on May 1, and will be initially implemented for 2 months. From July to December, OPEC+ will cut oil production by 8 million barrels per day, and from January 2021 to April 2022, it will cut oil production by 6 million barrels per day. OPEC+ is scheduled to hold its next meeting on June 10.

Many people find it strange that it is not an agreement; why does crude oil continue to rise from 10% to fall from 10%? First of all, the decline in crude oil is affected by the dual impact of the epidemic and the "price war".

I think many people can guess about the production cut of 10 million barrels per day. But we also said yesterday that due to the impact of the epidemic, the market's demand for crude oil has fallen sharply, with 20 million barrels per day of crude oil added to the market! Therefore, even if the production cut of 10 million barrels can only solve half of the problem for the market, the market is still in a state of strong supply and weak demand. Due to the pressure of supply and demand, in the first quarter of this year, WTI crude oil futures have fallen by more than 66.35%, with the largest drop of 86.79%; both WIT and Brent crude oil fell below $20/barrel and $22/barrel during the session, both hitting new lows in 18 years! The Energy Secretary of the G20 countries, including the United States, will hold a meeting at 20:00 tonight, which will cause significant fluctuations in the domestic energy and chemical sector varieties next week.

talk about why the agreement to cut production by 2,000 barrels per day cannot be reached. production reduction of 20 million barrels per day means that the global crude oil supply will be reduced by about 20% ; in history, there has not been such a large-scale production reduction agreement, so it is reasonable to not reach it. Finally, I hope that the evening G20 National Energy Ministers' Meeting can bring us unexpected surprises, but judging from the results of the OPEC+ meeting, the possibility of surprise is very small.

The decline in crude oil still has opportunities for us investors. First of all, the current crude oil price is at a relatively historical low, and low-priced crude oil will not exist for a long time (the reason is in the previous article); second, the decline in crude oil prices is a large part of the reason is that the epidemic affects demand, and the epidemic will usher in a historic turning point in the near future; third, OPEC and the evening G20 Energy Ministers' Meeting may bring surprises.

To sum up, most domestic energy chemical varieties have just returned to the top of the cost, but are still at a low level. From today's trend, domestic energy and chemical varieties have been strongly upward after opening low, especially methanol, PP, PTA and ethylene glycol in the second echelon. At present, these varieties have V reversed and the bullish trend remains intact, so there is a big low opening, and a big decline is still entering the market with long orders. However, the first-tier asphalt, fuel, and crude oil still need to continue to bottom.

02

methanol analysis

methanol opened low today and tried to break up to 1780 and suppress it, but all ended in failure. Yesterday, we talked about the new phase of methanol inventory data, which showed that port inventory has declined, mainland inventory has declined, and total inventory has declined; upstream starts decline, and downstream MTO starts rose by 4% compared with last week. That is, the fundamentals of methanol are relatively optimistic now, and some changes can be seen from the recent main holdings of methanol.

methanol 2009 contract long-short ratio curve long-short ratio long-short curve long-short counterattack, which also means that methanol or bulls have the advantage in the short term.

methanol from the technical perspective, the short-term market is still mostly large. Today's market tried to break through the 1870 suppression level upward, but it was unsuccessful. In the future, without the influence of external factors, the methanol market will continue to run upward. There is still hope for MA2009 contract to test the 2000 integer mark, but the expected height is around 2000.

methanol 2009 contract is still in a bullish trend overall. The current market is just around the pressure level 1870. The trend maintains the bullish idea. The probability of the market continuing to break up is high. In the short term, it is recommended to wait for the breakthrough and go back to go long, or buy at the lower edge of the range, and be cautious in shorting.

4 April 13 operation ideas

1. Pay attention to the upward breakthrough of 1870 and the lower long is mainly to fall back, or the lower long is to fall back near 1800 in the lower edge of the range.

2. There are not many suppression points above methanol in the short term. You still need to pay attention to the divergence of the indicators in operation!

[Follow at 20:00 pm, G20 National Energy Ministers Meeting]

Summary: methanol has a large fundamentals, capital is long, and technical side is large; subsequent operations have a low-level pullback.