Direct news: What do you think about the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, commonly known as OPEC+, which will reduce crude oil production by 2 million barrels per day from next month?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I noticed that some comments believe that since the actual output of some OPEC+ oil-producing countries is already lower than the quota, OPEC+'s decision will not have much impact on the global crude oil supply. However, I think that when international oil prices are still at a high level of around US$80 per barrel and global inflation is still high, OPEC+ still makes such a decision, which will undoubtedly arouse public anger.
First of all, we know that since taking office, the biggest and most difficult crisis that Biden has faced in the domestic and diplomatic aspects is actually the high international oil prices that have caused the US inflation rate to be at its highest level in more than 40 years. In order to solve this problem, Biden not long ago even put down his old face and went to the door to beg for , Saudi Arabia's to increase production. However, OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, not only did not increase production, but announced a significant reduction in production. This is not only a matter of not giving face, but it is simply spitting on Biden's face. Therefore, the relationship between OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, and Biden himself has been considered a foregone conclusion.
Secondly, we know that the United States will hold a midterm election next month, and high oil prices and high inflation are the biggest problems facing the ruling Democratic Party. If the Democratic Party fails in the midterm election, then the OPEC+ and the Democratic Party will be considered a feud.
Third, current inflation is not only a problem for the United States, but also a problem faced by the entire Western world. In particular, Europe is still fighting against Russia's for the supply of oil and gas resources. For this reason, some European countries have waves of marches, demonstrations and strikes protests almost every day. Therefore, OPEC+'s action will undoubtedly make the economic and livelihood situation of Western countries even worse, and they have also ended up with the grudges of Western countries. In addition, OPEC+'s move will also arouse public anger among all oil importers and oil consumers around the world.
Therefore, I personally believe that with the high global inflation level and the global economy being in a panic, OPEC+ did not overcome difficulties with the world, but instead took a worse production reduction action. This is actually not very wise. It not only nakedly manipulates the market to control oil prices, but also kills the chicken to get eggs. Because once the global economy falls into a great recession, the world's demand for oil will be sluggish for a long time, and more countries will turn to the production of clean energy, which are not conducive to the long-term development of OPEC+.
Direct News: US White House officials claimed that OPEC+'s daily cut of crude oil by 2 million barrels means that the world's largest oil-producing countries are joining forces to help Russia in an unprecedented way. What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I remember in my earlier comments, I once said that the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict is actually an alternative world war. On the surface, it seems that only Russia and Ukraine are fighting on the battlefield, but in fact, its essence is actually a world-wide war of over-limits.
While Russia and Ukraine were killing the sky and the earth with real swords on the battlefield, the Western countries supporting Ukraine were not idle. They were involved in information warfare, intelligence warfare, economic warfare, , financial warfare, and high-tech warfare respectively.
The core of the economic and financial war between Western countries and Russia is actually to cut off Russia's economic lifeline and destroy Russia's economic and military hematopoietic capabilities. The core of the core is actually to prevent Russia's oil and gas resource exports, or at least to limit the price of Russia's oil and gas resource exports to a very low price.To this end, EU has passed a new round of sanctions against Russia to set a price limit on oil sold to third-party countries.
Then, while Russia and the West are having fierce wrestling for oil and gas resources exports, OPEC+ has reached out to help Russia, which will undoubtedly waste all efforts of Western countries, especially the EU. What Western countries are particularly unbearable is that when Western countries are making every effort to isolate Russia at the diplomatic level, OPEC+ even invited Russian Vice Premier and Energy Minister Novak, who was sanctioned by the United States, to attend yesterday's production cuts.
It is worth noting that due to the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the entire Western countries have regarded Russia as their de facto enemy. Therefore, the White House officials accused OPEC+ of helping Russia, which actually implied the intention of integrating OPEC+ member states into the hostile camp.
Direct News: Then, when OPEC+ does not give the United States face at all, it is even considered to be helping Russia. What measures will the Biden administration take to deal with it next?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think that at least from the current stage, due to the fact that this matter is very important, especially when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is still in full swing, the Biden administration will not take fierce measures to deal with OPEC+.
For the Biden administration, their top priority is still to eliminate the huge impact that OPEC+ has brought to the US domestic economy and people's livelihood, politics, especially the midterm election after the announcement of production cuts. To this end, the Biden administration has withdrawn the earlier decision to "not consider releasing strategic oil reserves again", but instead "releasing another 10 million barrels of strategic oil reserves from next month." Of course, this does not mean that the Biden administration will let OPEC+ go. I think that since the two sides have formed a bond, after the US midterm elections and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is coming to an end, the Biden administration will definitely free up its hands to deal with OPEC+.
The possible retaliation measures of the United States include, first, significantly increasing the amount of domestic shale oil and gas resources exploitation in the United States to completely get rid of its dependence on OPEC+, and at the same time, shattering the illusion of OPEC+'s attempt to keep international oil prices at a high level from the market level; second, let the US judicial authorities initiate antitrust investigations and litigation against OPEC+, and implement long-arm jurisdiction on .
It is worth noting that since the United States and OPEC+ had already formed a chaotic relationship, their struggle will profoundly affect the global economic order and security pattern. Since the Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia are the main body of OPEC+, these countries rely on the protection of the United States in terms of security, that is, OPEC+ maintains the hegemony of the US dollar by settlement in US dollars, helping the United States consolidate its wallet, while the United States uses guns to help OPEC+ ensure the safety of oil production and output. And when the United States fights OPEC+, it is possible that it may even break up, this situation will inevitably be impacted.
Author丨Liu Heping, Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcast Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator
