text | Zhangzhou
Although it is no longer a "national liquor", Moutai is still Moutai.
After briefly hitting the 1,000 point mark last week, Moutai, which has lost its halo of "national liquor", finally rushed to 1,035 points on Friday, which can be said to be a "signature" and its stock price has skyrocketed. Although the face is less, the inside is profitable.
Although Moutai's stock price fell slightly due to the market on Tuesday, it still returned to more than 1,000 yuan on Friday: Recently, Moutai's total market value exceeded that of Agricultural Bank of China and PetroChina, and rose to the fourth place in the total market value of A shares . As Kweichow Moutai continues to meet market expectations, institutions also keep up with Moutai's value-added pace and continuously raise their target price: generally raise the Moutai stock price to 1240~1250 yuan.
Although Moutai has become the king of stock prices in A-shares, compared with high-priced stocks in history, Moutai is not the highest; Moutai can only be regarded as the highest-priced stock since 2000, not the highest-priced stock price in the history of A-shares.
Looking at various periods in the history of A-shares, Moutai's stock price has been surpassed more than once. However, as Su Dongpo said a thousand years ago, the Cao Cao , which was once "a hero of a lifetime", has now become a thing of the past. Who once surpassed Moutai’s stock price, but now?
Crazy past:
A shares are the highest price?
First of all, it is important to clarify that the price of stocks needs to consider the ex-rights factor. Public information shows that Kweichow Moutai was listed on August 27, 2001. The issue price at that time was 31.39 yuan per share, with a total market value of 9.253 billion yuan. To this day, the market value of 1.3 trillion yuan has increased by 140 times. If dividends and ex-rights are not considered, then the current stock price of Moutai should theoretically be (31.39*140) = 4410 yuan.
Looking at other "high-priced stocks", there is no similar ex-rights process, so its high stock price seems to be a bit "deficient in background" compared with Moutai. But even so, most of the stocks that were once "crazy" now ended in miserable miserable times.
The high-priced stocks in the past: may be delisted, or silent
If you have a little understanding of China's securities market, you will never forget the word "old eight-seller". Compared with the stock price of the old eight-seller stock, Moutai’s madness can only be said to be a little bit of slight storm.
Among them, the first stock listed in another place - Phoenix Chemical (600656), has been rising since its issuance. On May 25, 1992, the stock price reached 3,700 yuan per share, which lasted 18 months, with a cumulative increase of 1323%! A capital myth that cannot be repeated now is interpreted.
But the myth will always be shattered: today, it has been reorganized in multiple rounds, and after more than ten names such as Phoenix Chemical, Zhejiang Phoenix, Huayuan Pharmaceutical, ST Huayao, ST Yuan Pharmaceutical, ST Fangyuan, Boyuan Investment, etc., it has long been delisted in May 2016, and its stock price before the delisting is only 4.49 yuan.
In addition to Phoenix Chemical, another high-priced stock among the "old eight-piece stock" - Feile Co., Ltd. , also rose to 3,550 yuan during the 525 market, but then it "flying down three thousand feet" and also experienced multiple rounds of restructuring, name change, and even fell into a financial scandal. Although it has not fallen to the point of delisting, it is also labeled as ST, and the stock price is only a pitiful 1.89 yuan.
The madness of the "old eight-legged essay" has its historical origins: In the early stages of the development of China's capital market, when the fanatical pursuit of wealth came like a tide, laws and regulations did not keep up at the same time, leading to the "myth" being staged. And as the market gradually improves, such madness is gone forever.
Moutai’s former challenger: Where is now?
"Rome was not built in one day." Since its listing, Moutai has encountered obstacles from different opponents in different periods: According to incomplete statistics, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai has challenged , including China Shipbuilding, Netsu Technology, Haipurui, Oriental Garden, Tencent Co., Ltd., Quantong Education, Chinese Online, Anshuo Information, Storm Group, Gibit , etc.
In fact, after the stock prices of the above listed companies surpassed Moutai, most of them encountered deep pullbacks in the short term, and their performance was also very big gap with the current Moutai. Anyone whose stock price exceeds Moutai will encounter a Waterloo: This seems to have become a curse.
The one who recently challenged Moutai’s “stock king” was gigabit (603444) on March 17, 2017. At that time, the stock price of gigabit , which had not been listed for a long time, once reached 376 yuan per share during the trading session, and briefly surpassed the stock price of Kweichow Moutai in the early trading session.
Two and a half years later, the trend of Gibit is as follows:
As of June 28, the stock price after ex-rights was 219 yuan per share, which has accumulated a 40% decline compared with the highest price. Whether in terms of market value or profit, it is no longer the same as Moutai.
Although the stock price of Gibit is still far from the performance of Moutai, compared with the following two GEM challengers, it undoubtedly retains the last look:
In March 2015, Quantong Education (300359), which had only been listed for one year, topped the A-share market after soaring all the way, reaching the highest price of 467.57 yuan per share; and in May 2016, Zhongke Chuangda (300496) briefly surpassed 244.99 yuan per share of Kweichow Moutai at 254.49 yuan per share, becoming the new "stock king" of A-shares. However, a few years have passed, these stock kings have already fallen into the sun.
Value investment, why is it so difficult?
There is a joke circulating on the Internet: When the Shanghai Composite Index was 6,000 points in 2007, a stock investor sold Moutai for 46 yuan and bought the same , PetroChina , and everyone knows the next story.
is also a well-known large enterprise, and they also have the goal of "value investment". The outcome of investing in Moutai and PetroChina is very different. If there is a time shuttle, I believe the parties will make completely different choices. Unfortunately, no one has the ability to predict the future, and the time machine is just a science fantasy.
jokes are just jokes after all, but one truth it explains is: value investment is easier said than done.
The essence of value investment is to find high-quality assets that can be highly certain in the future and continue to grow.
"Value Investment" as a slogan has been shouted in the domestic market for many years, but how many companies can really cross the bull and bear market and apply value investment to their limits, besides Moutai? Moreover, where is the logic behind Moutai becoming the goal of "value investment"? Can this logic be applied to other targets?
Just imagine, who would have thought that those arrogant behemoths in the past, which were touted as models of "value investment", are now in a dying state as the industry declining? Who would have thought that under the surface of those glamorous numbers in the past, there were countless shady connections hidden? Maybe when you are completely rational, you can think of it, but you are confused by your own judgment.
Psychology tells us: people always tend to believe what they are willing to believe. is therefore not difficult to understand. If you are flocking to the baton of "value investment" without a deep understanding of the macro and industry, you will easily fall into self-intoxication and turn a blind eye to different views. Once this indulgence is utilized and amplified, it is easy to fall into a cliff.
Therefore, whether you can find a truly good company in is the first step in distinguishing between real and fake value investment.
The second level of value investment, is to judge the price of the company. If you find a good company in , it does not mean that you can buy it as much as it is expensive. No matter how expensive a company is, it is easy to lose money if you buy it.
Stock value and price fluctuation table (Picture source: Lynch)
The most extreme situation, you may be buying at point D of the stock price, and you will be photographed on the beach before you can wait for the dawn of victory. PetroChina is the lesson of the past: it is on the long journey from D to E, it depends on whether you have enough physical and mental health and endure the day of counterattack. Unfortunately, the result is often ended up being "Nanwang Wang Wang Zheng another year, and the King Zheng has no money."
Value investment is not "looking at the mountains as mountains, seeing water as water", not thinking about changing things, but "looking at the mountains as mountains, seeing water as water", and being open-minded that "was once hard to make water". This kind of open-mindedness needs to be based on the accumulation of a large amount of knowledge and is also a real stabilizing needle.
soared and plummeted. For such confident people, this is actually not a problem, but an opportunity, which gives real value investors opportunities. Every plunge gives investors the opportunity to buy good companies at low prices, and every soaring increase gives investors the opportunity to sell at high prices, which only depends on how investors can grasp it and whether they can.
This article is from poker investor
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