A brief list of major financial events in the week from October 3 to October 7, the following are all Beijing time:
The Seventh Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing on October 9, 2022; British Prime Minister Tras and British Chancellor Kuateng will speak at the annual meeting of the Conservative Party, RBA will announce interest rate resolution; the United States will announce non-agricultural employment data and ADP employment data in September, and the European Statistics Office will release the August Eurozone PPI, the September service industry PMI and comprehensive PMI data; OPEC+, the alliance of oil-producing countries, held the 33rd ministerial meeting to discuss oil production cut plans; 2022 Nobel Prize will be announced one after another.
Central Bank Dynamics
Next week, British Prime Minister Tras and British Chancellor Kwatten will speak at the annual meeting of the Conservative Party.
htmlOn Friday, September 23, the British government announced the "strongest" tax cut plan, and the scale of new bond issuances announced far exceeds the previous plan. It is said that the scale of this tax cut exceeded the tax cuts introduced during the administration of Mrs. Thatcher in 1988, and was the largest in half a century.As the tax cut program exacerbated market concerns about UK fiscal risks, the pound sterling exchange rate and UK Treasury bonds subsequently plummeted. As of September 28, the value of the UK's stock and bond market has shrunk by at least $500 billion since Tras was officially appointed as prime minister on September 5.
Not only International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged the UK to "re-evaluate" the plan, but the Bank of England's chief economist also called for an emergency monetary policy response. But the Bank of England's latest statement disappointed the market, and its latest statement extinguished the market's speculation that the country had taken relevant emergency measures.
Global rating agency Moody's said that it has raised the growth forecast of the UK GDP in 2022 from 3.0% to 3.3%, but has lowered the forecast for 2023 from 0.9% to 0.3%, and is expected that UK economic growth will not return to the potential level before 2026; S&P also took the lead. Although the UK's AA/A-1+ sovereign rating was maintained on Friday, it has downgraded the rating outlook from "stable" to "negative".
On Tuesday, the RBA will announce its interest rate decision.
At its last meeting on Tuesday, September 6, the RBA announced a hike of 650 basis points to 2.35%, reaching its highest level in more than seven years. Employment and consumption remain strong, supporting the RBA's four consecutive rate hikes by 50 basis points, the fastest since 1994.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that the current market consensus is that the RBA will continue to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next week, and the bank also agreed with this forecast, and expected the RBA to continue raising interest rates to curb inflation. Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac , said they would raise their expectations for the RBA's rate hike from a 25 basis point rate hike to a 50 basis point rate hike. In addition, the RBA is expected to continue hikes until February 2023.
But in early September, RBA Chairman Lowe had hinted that a slowdown in rate hikes could become larger. He said the Australian Federal Reserve policy tightening is very fast and the impact of this policy on the economy is lagging: "With the rest of other conditions, the reason for slowing down the pace of interest rate growth has become stronger and stronger as cash rate levels rise."
Below are the main agendas of the global central banks next week:
Monday (October 3): The Bank of Japan released a summary of the opinions of the members of the October Monetary Policy Conference. Foreign ministers from the euro zone held a meeting on how to deal with the economic situation in the euro zone when energy prices and inflation remained high , 2024 FOMC votes, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic Opening speech at the tech conference, British Chancellor Kwatten delivered a speech at the annual Conservative Party meeting, after his mini budget caused the pound to plummet ;
Tuesday (October 4): 2022 FOMC vote committee, Kansas Fed Chairman George delivered a speech, FOMC permanent vote committee, New York Fed Chairman Williams delivered a speech , RBA announced interest rate resolution , 2022 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester delivered a speech, Fed director Jefferson delivered a speech;
Wednesday (October 5): 2024 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley delivered a speech, New Zealand Fed released interest rate resolution and monetary policy assessment report, British Prime Minister Tras delivered a speech at the annual closed-door conference of the Conservative Party ;
Thursday (October 6 ): In 2024, FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic delivered a speech on the theme of resolute fight against inflation, European Central Bank released minutes of September monetary policy meeting , Bank of Canada Governor McClum delivered a speech at the Halifax Chamber of Commerce, EU leaders held an informal summit until October 7, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda delivered a speech at the branch presidents' meeting;
Friday (October 7): In 2023, FOMC voter and Chicago Fed Chairman Evans delivered a speech, Fed Director Lisa Cook delivered a speech at the Peterson Institute, Fed Director Waller made a speech on the U.S. economic prospects , 2022 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester made a speech on the U.S. economic prospects , the RBA released its financial stability report, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed Chairman Williams participated in a Q&A session of an event.
Economic Data
China: Next Saturday, China will release the September Caixin Service Industry PMI data.
html released on September 5th of August Caixin Service Industry PMI was 55.0, 0.5 percentage points lower than July, the highest since June 2021. Although the growth rate of the total number of new business in August slowed slightly, it remained strong, setting a record for the second highest since October 2021, roughly the same as the long-term average growth rate.US: Next week, the United States will announce the final value of Markit manufacturing and service industry PMI in September, as well as the non-farm employment data and ADP employment data in September.
preliminary data shows that the US Markit manufacturing PMI hit a two-month high in September. Although the service industry and comprehensive PMI are still in contraction, both hit three-month highs, and the data is better than expected. But that's not what the market likes, because it means the Fed may raise interest rates more aggressively.
. August data showed that the US Markit manufacturing, service industry and comprehensive PMI continued to hit new lows in more than two years in August. Among them, the service industry and comprehensive PMI have fallen into a contraction range for the second consecutive month, and the economy has deteriorated significantly.
data shows that the number of non-farm employment in the United States increased by 315,000 in August, far lower than the 528,000 in July, the smallest increase since December last year, and the number of employed people increased for 20 consecutive months.
The U.S. job market showed signs of slowing again, with new non-farm jobs and wage gains falling, but the unemployment rate rose beyond expectations and increased concerns about recession. Nevertheless, the U.S. job market is still in a relatively strong state and is unlikely to stop the Fed's determination to continue its rapid policy tightening.
European aspect: Next week, the EU Statistics Office will release the Eurozone PPI in August, the service industry PMI and comprehensive PMI data in September.
data shows that the euro zone PPI rose by 37.9% year-on-year in July, 37.3% higher than the market expectations, and the year-on-year reading that has declined for two consecutive months has risen again; the month-on-month growth rate rebounded sharply to 4%, exceeding market expectations, and the inflation pressure in Europe has not been significantly alleviated.
In addition, Germany and the United Kingdom will also release manufacturing PMI data for September, and France will release service industry PMI and comprehensive PMI data for September.
Below are important economic data next week:
Monday (October 3): Germany's September manufacturing PMI final value, Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI final value , UK's September manufacturing PMI final value, US September Markit manufacturing PMI final value , US September ISM manufacturing PMI, US August construction expenditure;
Tuesday (October 2) 4th): Eurozone August PPI , US factory orders in August;
Wednesday (October 5): The US-September 30th week API crude oil inventories (10,000 barrels), Germany's September service industry PMI final value, Eurozone September service industry PMI final value, , UK's September service industry PMI, US September ADP number of employment (10,000 people) , US August trade account (10,000 US dollars), US Markit service industry PMI final value , US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in September, US crude oil inventories (10,000 barrels) in the week from September 30, US strategic oil reserve inventories (10,000 barrels) in the week from September 30;
Thursday (October 6): Eurozone retail sales in August, US challenger companies layoffs in September (10,000), US first-time unemployment benefits (10,000) in the week from October 1, US New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), EIA natural gas inventory in the United States to September 30 (billion cubic feet);
Friday (October 7): UK Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index in September, China's foreign exchange reserves in September (billion US dollars), US non-farm employment in September (10,000) , US unemployment rate in September, US wholesale sales in August;
Saturday (October 8): China's Caixin Service Industry PMI in September.
market
China Central Bank open market: Saturday, People's Bank of China had 521 billion 7-day reverse repurchase maturity and 90 billion 14-day reverse repurchase maturity, with a total maturity of 611 billion yuan.
closed: A shares , the market will be closed from October 1 (Saturday) to October 7 (Friday) due to the National Day holiday, October 8 (Saturday) and October 9 (Sunday) will be closed on weekends, and the market will be opened as usual from October 10 (Monday).
Hong Kong stocks , October 1 and 2 are normal weekends, the market will be closed on October 3 (Monday), and the market will be closed on October 4 (Tuesday, Double Ninth Festival).
Company financial report: A-shares will not be disclosed next week, and the Hong Kong stock Anke system will disclose its first quarter report on October 5; US stock , Tesco disclosed its financial report before the US stock market on October 5, and Levitra disclosed its financial report after the US stock market on October 6.
Important Meetings
- The Seventh Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held
According to Xinhua News Agency , the Seventh Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing on October 9, 2022. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will recommend to the Seventh Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China that the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing on October 16, 2022.
- OPEC+ held the 33rd ministerial meeting to discuss the oil production cut plan
According to media reports, OPEC+, composed of oil-producing countries, will consider reducing production by more than 1 million barrels per day when the meeting was held on Vienna on Wednesday, October 5. Delegates said that a final decision on the scale of production cuts will not be made before the meeting of ministers of various countries.
Important Events
- 2022 Nobel Prizes will be announced
According to CCTV News, the official website of the Nobel Prize, the 2022 Nobel Prizes will be issued one after another from October 3 to 10. Nobel Foundation also decided to invite 2022 Nobel Prize winners to participate in the Nobel Prize Awards Week event held in Stockholm, Sweden in December. It is reported that the award ceremony is planned to be held in Stockholm Concert Hall , and a banquet will be held in Stockholm City Hall . The time for the promulgation of each award in
is as follows: on October 3, the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was announced; on October 4, the Nobel Prize in Physics was announced; on October 5, the Nobel Prize in Chemistry was announced; on October 6, the Nobel Prize in Literature was announced; on October 10, the Nobel Prize in Economics was announced.
022 Nobel Prize prize is 10 million Swedish kroner (approximately RMB 6.42 million).- Japan plans to issue 4 trillion yen 6-month Treasury bonds
- Moscow Exchange will suspend trading of pounds
Moscow Exchange issued an announcement stating that starting from October 3, 2022, the foreign exchange market of the Moscow Exchange will suspend trading of pounds. The suspended trades include spot and forward on-market and off-market trading for pound- rubles and pound-dollars.
- B site will be converted into a dual main listing
The official website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange shows that B station will be converted from a second listing to a main listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and will officially take effect on October 3. By then, Bilibili will become the first company among China's TMT (technology, media, and communications) companies to complete the voluntary conversion from a secondary listing in Hong Kong to a dual major listing.
- Xiaomi holds a new product launch conference
New stocks will be listed on the Hong Kong stock market next week. On October 5, Baide Medical is one of the developers and providers of microwave ablation medical devices for minimally invasive tumor treatment. html will be launched on October 6 by China Innovation Airlines and Emmy vaccines. China Innovation Airlines is mainly engaged in the design, research, development, production and sales of power battery and energy storage system products. Amy Vaccine was established on November 9, 2011. It mainly operates eight commercial vaccine products. The product portfolio covers 6 diseases that can be prevented by vaccines, including rabies , hepatitis B, hepatitis A and other fields.
No new fund issuance next week.
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