U.S. non-farm employment data, English: Non-Farm Payroll, referred to as NFP
U.S. non-farm employment data can reflect the current employment situation in the US manufacturing and service industries. It is also an important indicator for the US Federal Reserve to evaluate the overall economic status of the United States and then adjust monetary policy. The U.S. non-farm employment data is based on "month" statistics, and the statistics of last month are released at the beginning of each month. The release time of the U.S. non-farm employment data is released on the first Friday of each month by the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics Bureau of Labor Statistics. Non-agricultural employment data reflects the development and growth of manufacturing and services. If the non-agricultural employment figures decrease, the economy will slow down or be in a depression.
Non-agricultural data is an important reference data for monetary policy
1. Non-agricultural data reflects the development and growth of manufacturing and service industries
The decrease in non-agricultural numbers means that enterprises have reduced production and the economy has fallen into a depression. When the number of non-agricultural employment increases significantly, it indicates that the employment situation is good, which can improve consumption capacity and consumption level to a certain extent, promote the good development of the overall economy, and promote new employment due to the healthy development of the economic situation. Therefore, positive non-farm data can increase the exchange rate and vice versa.
2. Non-agricultural data is one of the reference data for the Federal Reserve to formulate monetary policies
The Federal Reserve has two core goals: controlling inflation and stimulating employment. Therefore, non-farm data must be one of the key data to be considered when formulating monetary policies. Generally speaking, after the non-farm data is released, many Fed officials will make some speeches on this data.
Given the important position of the US dollar in the world, every data release will trigger market turmoil. In foreign exchange analysis, there is a negative correlation between the US dollar and non-US dollar currencies and gold. Therefore, a good dollar means bad non-dollar currency, gold.
Non-agricultural data generally publishes three values: the number of employed people (net value), the unemployment rate and the employment rate. The most important thing is the number of employed people (net worth) and the unemployment rate.
analyzes the differences between the three data. Each time the market changes are considered, three items of each data should be considered together: the previous value, the expected value and the actual published value. We must further judge the price trends of foreign exchange and gold based on the gap between the actual published value and the expected value.
Before the non-agricultural data is released, investors should carefully analyze the recently released employment data and exclude those expected data games. As long as the non-agricultural data maintains growth momentum in the end, it can indicate that the US employment market is still in a state of recovery (since the US employment market is in a state of recovery, it should also be combined with the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and quantitative easing policies.)
Overall, non-agricultural data can have the following four impacts on the gold price trend.
The first impact: non-agricultural employment data is greater than the previous value and greater than expected. Positive to US dollar and negative to gold.
The second impact: non-agricultural employment data is smaller than the previous value and smaller than expected. Bad dollar and bullish gold.
The third impact: non-agricultural employment data is smaller than expected, but greater than the previous value. Gold rises first and then falls.
The fourth impact: non-agricultural employment data is greater than expected, but smaller than the previous value. Gold falls first and then rises.
Of course, traders need to analyze the market more comprehensively and comprehensively, pay special attention to technical research and judgment, and pay attention to changes in market sentiment.
