Entered the fourth quarter as soon as September passes. There will be many major events in the fourth quarter that will affect the market: for example, the epidemic will be about to end the year, for example, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates twice, for example, the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the change of major powers and the midterm elections, the global grain harvest prejudice, etc., will affect the trend of commodity . As a trader, you can always find your own opportunities under these uncertainties.
Ten years of hard work, the Frost Blade has never tried. Today I will show you, who will have any unfair things? Everyone is welcome to join us and find our own opportunities from the fourth quarter that is destined to be extraordinary.
Commodity index: In the last week of September, some varieties in the commodity market collapsed, and most varieties fell, mainly due to the strong US dollar. There is no breakthrough in the daily line for the time being, and I don’t say it will still fall, but today’s trend is very bad for the bulls, it depends on whether it can be recovered in the next four days.
Industrial products: Crude oil/non-colored systems/chemical products are all plummeting trends, only black can barely support it. The daily line structure is temporarily fluctuating, but crude oil and nonferrous metals are both a new round of downward trends, and crude oil does not seem to have stopped falling, which also leads to pressure on some chemical varieties; overall, crude oil and chemicals are still slightly short, but there are uncertainties in crude oil, so try to choose to wait and see or operate lightly. The idea of keeping a low-dollar black is to keep it low. It can include soda ash and glass. Currently, it is still the building materials.
Agricultural Products: now seems to be a bearish trend, especially the entire agricultural product has not seen a large decline, so the possibility of a big rise is not high, and the subsequent trend may be a volatile decline.
thread: The daily line has been adjusted for two days after the sun rises. For the time being, continue to look at the expectations of double bottom , and wait for a breakthrough to get the opportunity point. The double bottom neckline position is 3800, and whether it can break through is directly related to whether it can reach the impact of 3900/4000.
Coke: The daily line reaches the neckline at the bottom of W. If you can effectively break through, continue to go long. If you cannot break through, consider shorting . Now wait and see for a while to wait for a signal of long or short.
Coking coal: The daily line continues to maintain a volatile trend, but there is no suppression of falling below 2050 for the time being, so it is still a tendency to be too long. It is recommended to follow up and go long after the pullback.
Iron ore: The daily line is still running below the suppression of 755, and the daily line structure is not clear, so it is recommended to choose to wait and see.
Black strength: hot roll > thread > coking coal > coke > iron ore; subjective judgment is that black will usher in a big market next week.
methanol: The daily line today's small rebound went to repair, but the rebound strength was very small, completely within an acceptable range. It is still near the previous double bottom neckline, but the daily line will turn short. If the market recovers in the future, methanol bulls may have another counterattack. However, it is recommended to use this wave of counterattack to enter the short position, and pay attention to the position of the figure below [Daily chart]. It is not recommended to go too long for the time being.
ethylene glycol : daily line closes such a large negative line that rises and falls back to , which can only be defined as turning empty, unless the main force is shameless tomorrow big positive line reverses back. The daily line of ethylene glycol fell below the recent fluctuation platform and turned into a downward trend. It is recommended to rely on the short selling area near 4300 and the short defensive position above 4360.
PTA: daily line fluctuates, and once again falls back near the lower edge of the range. If crude oil stops falling, you can try to keep the long or choose to wait and see. The main thing is to see how crude oil goes. If it is strong, it will be strong, and if it is weak, it will be weak.
soda ash: daily line continues to rise positively, and now it should be confirmed that it is firmly above 2400. I said before that if you stand firmly above 2400, you should keep the long idea, and below 2400 is the short idea.It is the idea of maintaining a low-income ratio.
PP: The daily line fell below the neckline of the W bottom in the previous period, the trend reversed, and the PP daily line also formed a short structure. I have talked about the idea of short selling below 7970, so I can continue to continue.
Soybean oil: daily line fell below the support of 9000, and it is temporarily treated with a short attitude. For the time being, the rebound is only 9000, but it is always based on the short idea.
