When making political predictions, it requires a high risk. If the prediction is correct, it is naturally a "great military advisor" and is expected to be like a god; if the prediction is wrong, then the political reputation accumulated in the past will be destroyed. Recently, President Biden and have always acted as the "prophetic emperor" in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, although he is always "unpredictable".
According to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency on February 17, US President Biden once again made predictions about the development of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis in an interview with the media. He said that Russia "may" attack Ukraine in the next few days, "the risk of war is very high." Just before Biden predicted that Russia would attack Ukraine "within a few days", a "prophecy" of the US government about the war between Russia and Ukraine had just aborted. According to a report by Russian TASS on February 12, the Biden administration "godly predicted" that the Russian army would launch an attack on Ukraine at 3 a.m. on February 16 and urged Americans in Ukraine to "leave immediately."
However, a funny scene appeared. Russia withdrew some Russian troops deployed on the Russian-Ukrainian border to its base on February 15. The Russian Foreign Ministry even mocked that it believed that the United States predicted that those who "Russia and Ukraine would go to war" in the early morning of the 16th "can watch". Now the 16th has passed long ago. Has the war started between Russia and Ukraine? Not. Logically speaking, the US government has made such a big mistake and made such a big fool, so it should learn from the lesson. Why do we still predict that Russia and Ukraine will go to war? Could it be accurate this time? What if the calculation is miscalculated again? Where can the superpowers be put?
First of all, the reason why the United States is hyping up the "Russia-Ukraine war" is mainly to trigger the "war trap". What are the benefits of the war between Russia and Ukraine? The benefits are numerous: 1. Impose "destructive" sanctions on Russia; 2. Deteriorate the European security environment and force Europe to jump on the "anti-China tank" built by the United States; 3. Deteriorate Russia-Europe relations, expel Russian gas and Russian oil from the European market, and replace them with US energy; 4. Once a war breaks out in Europe, the United States will announce a hike in , and global capital will surge into the United States to help the United States "prosper again." From this we can see that when Russia and Ukraine "fire a cannon", the United States "gold ten thousand taels".
Secondly, it’s fine to hype “Russia and Ukraine war”, but why should we be accurate to “a certain month and a certain day”? The reason is also very simple, because the initiator of the Russian-Ukrainian war is indeed in the hands of the United States. It was the United States who encouraged Ukraine to attack eastern Ukraine and supported Ukraine to join , NATO, and this Russian-Ukrainian crisis triggered. If Putin does not fight , , Ukraine joins NATO, the US missile can hit Moscow in 44-5 minutes, abolishing Russia's "nuclear counterattack" capabilities. Putin bluntly stated that this is something Russia "untolerated"; if Putin fights, then the United States can reap the benefits mentioned in the previous paragraph.
So, as long as the United States wants Russia and Ukraine to go to war, it only needs to give Ukraine instructions to launch a fierce attack on eastern Ukraine and start Ukraine's procedures for joining NATO, and Putin will not be unresponsive. From this perspective, it is reasonable for the United States to repeatedly predict the "war start time", because the initiator is held in the hands of the United States, and when to hit it depends entirely on the decision of the United States. So the question is, since that is the case, why do American predictions "frequently fail"? This is because the "chess piece" in Ukraine has been repeated and she doesn't listen to the instructions of the American player.
For example, on February 12, the Biden administration predicted that Russia would "invade" Ukraine on the 16th. Ukrainian President Zelensky not only did not cooperate in hyping the war crisis, but also required the United States to "prove evidence", which clearly means "not obeying command." Not only that, just after President Biden once again predicted that Russia would attack Ukraine in the next few days, Zelensky came forward to sabotage again. He said that "talking about which day Russia will invade Ukraine" and "the panic caused by this are not good for Ukraine." Judging from Zelensky's statement, Biden's prediction may be "failed" again.
Finally, since the "chess piece" does not obey the command and the initiator of the war is "not so effective", why does the United States keep pressing and constantly "predicting the war"? First of all, Ukraine took the opportunity to ask the United States for the status of a member of NATO. If the "chess piece" is temporarily disobedient, it may not be disobedient all the time. As long as you "obey once", the war will break out, so this initiator has not been completely destroyed. Secondly, as the Russian Foreign Ministry said, in order to create the Russian-Ukrainian war and trap Russia, the United States is actually "hysterical" and a bit "crazy" in terms of swelling the tense atmosphere of war.
From the previous article, we can know that whether Putin fights or not, it is actually not good for Russia. Therefore, Putin does not want to do this multiple-choice question, which is reflected in strategy: 1. Staff stationed on the border of Russia-Ukraine and maintains a strong strategic deterrence; 2. Show goodwill to Ukraine and expresses his willingness to negotiate on security issues; 3. Putin said that Russian gas will pass from Ukraine in the future; 4. Russia-Duma passed the draft, suggesting Putin recognize eastern Ukraine as a "independent country." Putin spread his bags, asking for maces to have maces and carrots to have carrots. No wonder Ukraine doesn't obey the command of the United States, Zelensky has to think about it carefully.
