Economic Observer Reporter Hong Xiaotang "The Shanghai Composite Index has been from 3000 points to 3000 points, but investors have lost money, so where has the money gone?"
Since this year, this "soul questioning" has been popular among major fund investment exchange platforms and WeChat groups.
In the first three quarters of 2022, the term "fund" frequently appeared on Weibo hot searches, and its popularity was no less than a certain star's divorce; star fund managers also had roadshows every few days, involving investment frameworks, future market outlook, which sector is better; Xiaohongshu, , Douyin , and B station's number of fund bloggers has increased significantly...
These signs all illustrate one thing: funds are deeply in the public's financial management sight, and hope to make money through fund investment. "A small goal in life depends on it." A reporter from an interviewed public commented.
The fundamental reason is that the post-90s and post-00s have begun to enter the workplace and start a family and a career. "By relying on monthly salary, I don't know that it will take until the year of the Monkey and Horse Month to achieve financial freedom." Fund investor Ma Chao admitted.
However, the sharp market fluctuations since this year have hurt investors: equity funds have suffered large-scale losses, and the "fixed income +" product that is advertised as "can ride the wind and waves" has withdrawn more than expected, and the yield of money funds has hit a new low...
In the anxiety of inflation and the war to defend wealth, how to place investment demand has become a question in the hearts of investors.
Loss damage
Ma Chao was born in 1992 and is currently a store manager in a quality training institution in Beijing. He doesn't know much about finance. "I still have some basic common sense of finance." In Ma Chao's eyes, inflation has caused the money in his hands to passively shrink, and the repeated epidemic and the risk of layoffs affects income and life expectations, which makes him very anxious. The idea of "making money" outside of his career is extremely strong.
Ma Chao just started buying funds in 2021 and only took out a few thousand yuan to test the waters, but he didn't expect to get more than 20% of the returns in just a few months. He felt that buying funds can make money.
Then, Ma Chao invested almost all his savings into the fund, looking forward to "adding money" to the future house purchases in his hometown.
However, ideals are full, but reality is a bit unacceptable. Ma Chao felt that he was "trapped" for the first time in his life.
At the beginning of 2022, black swan events frequently appeared, and the fluctuations and declines of A shares exceeded almost everyone's expectations, especially in the first four months of this year, fell unilaterally, causing the total market value of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing to evaporate by more than 16 trillion yuan. Although there was some improvement in the second quarter, fell again in the third quarter. As of September 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 16.91% this year, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 27.45%, and the ChiNext Index fell 31.11%. Market performance like
hurts investors very much. A large number of celebrity fund managers "fall from the altar", and funds with a 50% net value fall are not uncommon.
-day investment consultant latest data shows that in the first half of this year, mixed funds, stock funds, FOF, overseas investment funds, etc. all had negative returns. The profits of 15,180 funds (A and C shares) in the entire market were combined, with an actual loss of 635.04 billion, the first loss in the data in the same period in the past three years. There are 6,637 mixed funds in the entire market, with a total loss of 526.591 billion yuan, and 2,770 stock funds have a total loss of 256.122 billion yuan, and stock funds have an average loss of nearly 100 million yuan per product. The total loss of 374 FOFs was 6.399 billion yuan, and the total loss of 291 overseas investment funds was 23.389 billion yuan, and the total profit of money market funds alone exceeded 100 billion yuan.
Faced with such investment returns, Ma Chao said bluntly that he would never buy funds after returning to his capital. The poor performance of
equity funds has put a lot of pressure on fund managers. A fund managed by a medium-sized public fund investment director in Beijing has seen a major drawdown this year. He told reporters that every time someone says it is his own holder, his mood is very complicated.
's retracement confusion
The high risk of equity market discourages Fangfang, who works in a beauty salon, but the trend of buying funds makes her not want to miss it. So, under the video recommendation of an Internet blogger, she bought a relatively stable "fixed income +" product.
The blogger said that the "fixed income +" product can not only control risks, but also exceed the yield of bank wealth management. Fangfang felt that it was more suitable for her. "After all, every money I earned was hard-working. I didn't want to lose, so I bought some." After buying
, the fund rose gratifyingly and its net value hit new highs. However, after a while, when Fangfang opened Alipay, she found that the fund's curve turned around and stumbled on a downhill that she didn't look back. Seeing more than 10 points of retracement, she felt that the blogger had "scamd" her, so she reluctantly redeemed the fund.
Indeed, the "fixed income +" fund, which has always used "stable" and "low volatility" as its slogan, has seen explosive growth in recent years, and this year, this type of product has also generally experienced major drawdowns in the extreme market environment. According to Wind data statistics, as of September 27, 2022, the average return of the "fixed income +" funds in the entire market (including primary bond funds, , secondary bond funds and bond-biased mixed funds) has been -1.21% this year. Among them, the best-performing funds achieved a return of 9.34% this year, while the worst-performing funds achieved an annual return of -20.09%, with the first difference reaching 29.43%. Among the 2,860 "fixed income +" products in the entire market, 69 products fell by more than 10% this year, of which 20 products fell by more than 15% this year.
From the perspective of the drawdown control focused on by the "fixed income +" products, the average maximum drawdown of the "fixed income +" funds in the entire market since this year was -4.42%, of which 23 products had the maximum drawdown of more than 20% this year, and 4 products had the maximum drawdown of more than 30% this year.
Not long ago, many fund companies received window guidance , requiring the upper limit of the investment proportion of equity assets of related products to , and those exceeding this ratio cannot be promoted with "fixed income +".
A "fixed income +" fund manager in South China said, "The new specifications make the risk-return characteristics and positioning of 'fixed income +' products clearer, making it easier for customers to choose suitable products, making 'fixed income +' products return to their original intentions and suitable as an important configuration in the family asset basket."
"1 Era" pain
In the financial management discussion on Douban, "Living with interest", many "leek friends" of investment fund sighed in the comment section, whether they are not suitable for financial management or are so lucky that they ignore themselves, they can accurately build positions at a high point.
Therefore, many investors chose a more risk-averse financial management product - money funds.
However, against the backdrop of liquidity easing, the yields of money funds have been declining since the beginning of this year. As of September 27, the average yield of a total of 748 money funds in the market was 1.29%, breaking the historical low of about 1.44% in June 2020. And all 748 money market funds included in the statistics have entered the "1 era".
Among them, Tianhong Yu'ebao, the "national wealth management artifact" with the largest number of holders, is no exception. On September 28, Tianhong Yu'ebao's 7-day annualized yield has dropped to 1.37%, which is only 6 bp away from the low of 1.31% of the 7-day annualized yield set in June 2020; compared with the 7-day annualized yield of 6.763% and a 1.7 yuan per cent profit of more than 1.7 yuan, it is now less than a fraction.
Under the Federal Reserve "violent" interest rate hike , most assets around the world are fluctuating downward. Although the returns of money funds are low, as a safe-haven asset, it still received a large inflow of funds in the first half of the year. According to the latest data disclosed by China Fund Industry Association , as of the end of July, the scale of money funds had reached 11.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.62 trillion yuan from 9.47 trillion yuan at the end of last year.
A money fund manager in Beijing believes that under the influence of factors such as the epidemic and peripheral liquidity, interest rates may remain low before the end of this year, and there is no possibility of further downward trend; when the fundamentals recover next year and overseas interest rate hikes are gradually slowing down, interest rates may gradually return to neutrality and slightly upward.
Short-term bond funds are popular
As equity funds suffer substantial losses, the net value of "fixed income +" products fluctuates sharply, and the yields of money funds decline, investors' demand for safe-haven is significantly increased.A fund investor asked in the discussion area of the third-party platform, "The income of cash management products cannot meet my needs, but they do not want to bear too high risks. What should I do?"
In the cold winter of the fund issuance market, there is a type of fund that has been crowded with purchase restrictions.
For example, on September 23 and September 22 alone, more than 10 short-term bond products such as Dongwu Anxin medium and short-term bonds, Debang Asset Management Yueyuexin 30-day rolling bonds, Donghai Xiangsu short-term bonds, Hui'an medium and short-term bonds, Nanfang Wangyuan 60-day rolling holdings medium and short-term bonds, Nanfang Jiyuan short-term bonds, Haitong Anyu medium and short-term bonds, Kaishiqi short-term bonds, etc., have issued announcements of suspension of subscription or suspension of large-scale subscriptions.
short-term bond fund is a pure bond fund and does not participate in "rights-inclusive" investments such as stock market and convertible bonds. Since the beginning of this year, as of August 31, the average yield of short-term bond funds has reached more than 2%. In the long run, according to Galaxy Securities statistics, the yields of this type of product in the past year, two years and three years have been positive, 2.92%, 6.20% and 9.20% respectively.
Wind data shows that as of the second quarter of 2022, the scale of short-term bond funds reached 824.4 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 38.7%. Wang Xianbiao, fund manager of Nord Fund, pointed out that due to the impact of the new asset management regulations, the scope of investment in cash management of money funds and banks in is limited, but in fact, whether it is institutional investors or individual investors, the demand for high-liquid and low-risk products has not decreased, and medium and short-term bond funds have undertaken the spillover of this type of demand.
"As a new tool for spare money management, medium and short-term bond funds are more flexible in bond asset allocation compared with money funds and bank cash management, and have relatively controllable risks. They also have certain advantages over the former in terms of yields and large-scale subscriptions. Therefore, the enthusiasm of fund companies to deploy medium and short-term bond funds remains undiminished, and this type of fund also has good investment value." He added.
Chuangjinhexin Hengxing medium and short-term bond fund manager Xie Chuang analyzed that in the early stage of net value transformation, the short-term bond products with the lowest volatility will match the investor demand. As the net value transformation deepens, investors' awareness of the volatility of bond products has improved, and their demand for returns will gradually be greater than the demand for low volatility. In this process, medium and short-term bond funds have the characteristics of better long-term yields and controllable overall volatility, and will gradually divert some short-term bond investors, and the overall market demand will increase. "In addition, related products including ultra-short bond funds, short-term bond funds and medium-short bond funds usually have clear and clear product positioning. Among them, medium-short bond funds pursue better medium- and long-term returns under the premise of enduring certain fluctuations, and are more attractive to investors with low risk-return preferences." Xie Chuang said.
misalignment to be solved
has to be admitted that as the fund investors become increasingly younger, novices and investors lack sufficient financial knowledge and financial management capabilities, resulting in misalignment of investment expectations and investment returns.
According to the "Generation Z Fund Investment Insight Report" jointly released by Huaan Fund , Guotai Junan Securities and Ant Financial Think Tank, among the surveyed investors who have started working or are studying in college, the shortest holding time is 2.4 months on average, and the proportion of the shortest holding time is shorter than 1 month reaches 44%.
The survey found that within 2019 to 2021, the income loss of people who have pursued the rise and fall behavior was higher than that of people who did not pursue the rise and fall price; the annual average return level of people who have frequent trading behavior on various funds was lower than that of people who had no frequent trading.
In response to this, Zhan Yuyin, chairman of E Fund Fund , recently publicly stated that after statistics on the past fund annual report, it was found that the fund's yield was positive, and the profit was negative. About 10% of foundations had this situation; there were even more extreme situations, such as the fund's yield exceeded 50%, and the profit loss was more than 500 million, which would give holders a very bad feeling.
"More importantly, each fund's annual report will estimate its capital-weighted rate of return, and all capital-weighted rate of return is lower than the actual weighted rate of return." Zhan Yuyin said that a big reason why the fund makes money and holders do not make money is that the average redemption rate of China's active equity funds is very high.In 2015, the average redemption rate of China's active equity funds was 250%, and now it is 115%, with a turnover every 10 months.
Jiashi Fund fund manager Yao Zhipeng gave an example: They calculated that if you drink two cups of 35 yuan coffee a day, it would cost 2,100 yuan a month. If you use 2,100 yuan to start regular investment from the end of December 2003, according to the previous stock fund total index, the annualization is close to 15%. As of now, you can obtain about 1.91 million yuan of funds.
Zhan Yuyin believes that cultivating long-term investment concepts is very important. Fund managers and fund companies need to have long-term investment concepts, including making the product itself more distinctive, allowing investors to hold on, and allowing the fluctuations and drawdowns of fund products to be within the scope of management and control; in addition, investors themselves need to be able to insist on long-term investments.
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