(This article is compiled by the official account Yuesheng Wealth (YSLC168888), for reference only and does not constitute operational advice. If you operate by yourself, pay attention to position control and risk at your own risk.)
People often list timing as one of the important factors for a person's success. Mencius once said: "Although you have wisdom, it is better to take advantage of the momentum; although you have a foundation, it is better to wait for the time." This sentence comes from "Mencius Gongsun Chou" roughly means: Although you have wisdom, it is better to catch up with a good opportunity; although you have agricultural tools in agricultural production, it is better to wait until the right time to farm. From this we can see that "the ancients did not deceive me". They need to have a good opportunity to do anything, otherwise no matter how much they do, it will be in vain.
In almost no matter what we do in our lives, we have to pay attention to an opportunity. If the time is right, we will achieve twice the result with half the effort; if the time is wrong, we will achieve half the result with twice the result with twice the result. The editor once saw a short story in the "Hundred Metaphor Sutra": There was a monetary man in the past, and everyone around him wanted to please him, which was a great deal of respect. Even when the rich man spitted, the people who served on both sides immediately wiped off the phlegm on the ground with their feet. There is such a fool who is half a beat slower than others every time. He himself summarizes his experience of failure and is ready to start first. So when the rich man coughs and is about to spit, the fool directly raises his feet and kicks the rich man's mouth with a blow to the rich man's mouth. As a result, the rich man's lips were broken, and a few of his teeth fell off, and blood flows out. The rich man was furious and asked, "Why did you kick me?" The fool answered honestly and seriously, "Every time you spit on the ground, someone wiped it off with his feet. I also want to please you, but every time it is slower than others. So, I thought that before you spit it out, I would stretch out my feet in advance.
3 trading volume three best time to intervene:
1, the peak of the sky
very typical strong stocks' upward characteristics. It's the main The signal of force pulling is the signal for the stock price to take off.
Those stocks that hit the daily limit or stocks that rise rapidly in the short term will have abnormal trading volume at the moment when they launch a general attack. Usually, the larger the volume peak, the greater the strength and possibility of the stock price rising.
2. The back volume is lower than the previous volume
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3, Cross
The key price factor formed by the first starting point of the stock price breaks through the new high. In the trading analysis, this price breaks through the high point must increase the volume. The main force is to use this technological breakthrough to make a strong upward intention.
Trading Volume Analysis Iron Law
Volume-price combination analysis method is an analysis method that combines price trends with changes in trading volume. Method, this analysis method fully considers the two most important data in the market - price and pattern. Therefore, compared with the K-line pattern analysis method, the practicality and accuracy of the combination of volume and price analysis method have been improved.
price trend is very important. It is the result of the game between bulls and bears, and it also reflects the transformation of bulls and bears' forces. In addition, trading volume is also very important. Granville, a famous American investment expert, once said, "Trading volume is the vitality of stocks, and stock price is just a reflection of trading volume. Changes in trading volume are a precursor to changes in stock prices. ”
Based on the price trend, using the changes in the volume and energy form, you can more accurately grasp the transformation of long and short forces, and then grasp the highs and lows in the medium and short term to achieve successful trading.
trading volume expression form 1) shrinkage: shrinkage refers to the relatively light market trading performance, and most people have a high recognition of the market's later trend. It is generally a concept of increase or decrease compared with the previous trading volume, and also includes the concept of horizontal shrinkage, vertical shrinkage, single-day shrinkage and phased shrinkage.
In actual operations, we generally define that the daily trading volume is less than 10% of the previous trading volume, which is a shrinkage volume. If the daily trading volume is less than or higher than 10% of the previous trading volume, it is called flat volume.For the turnover rate of the day before yesterday, if the turnover rate is above 10%, and today's transactions have only been reduced by 10%, but the absolute turnover is still large. Then, this horizontal increase in volume cannot be simply called shrinkage, and it will only be meaningful if the vertical reduction to the daily turnover rate below 3%.
shrinkage is mainly caused by the following two situations: First, most people are not optimistic about the future market, resulting in only people selling, and few people buying; second, most people are optimistic about the future market, and only people buying, while few people selling. The shrinkage often occurs at the end of the pullback in the middle of the rise, the end of the rise, and the middle and late stages of the stock price falling. The shrinking phase in a general downward trend often means that the stock price has not yet bottomed out and cannot easily enter the market to grab a rebound.
(2) Moderate shrinkage: Moderate shrinkage refers to the gradual decline in market trading, market participants' differences in the later trend are decreasing, and their recognition is gradually converging. Specifically, after the current volume is increased, the trading volume gradually shrinks in turn, and the trading volume index columnar line of the K-line chart gradually shrinks, similar to the down-step "stair-shaped" shrinkage pattern.
Moderate shrinkage often occurs during the pullback process after the first and second waves of rise, the end of continuous rise, as well as the early and final stages of decline. If the stock price gradually shrinks and pulls back after the first wave of stock price increases, then it is a good time to intervene at the end of the adjustment period. When rises and attacks again, it is a good time to chase the rise; if the stock price rises at the end of the continuous rise, but the transaction gradually shrinks, it means that the upward momentum begins to decline, the market is not following the trend, and the market may be in front of you; at the end of the decline, there is a gradual decline in volume after a large-volume sell-off. At this time, it means that the intra-market selling is gradually decreasing, the short selling force is declining, and the market is gradually coming, which is the time to enter the market in batches.
(3) Land volume: Land volume is an extreme manifestation of shrinking volume, which means that the market trading is extremely light and the trading volume reaches the lowest level within a long period of time, indicating that most people have a very high recognition of the market's later trend. This is often due to the market sentiment is very sluggish, trading is extremely inactive, or a stock is highly controlled by the main institution and others are unable to participate. The land volume can be divided into recent land volume, historical land volume, and phased land volume. It is clearly reflected in the daily K-line, -week K-line , or monthly K-line chart, and generally appears when the stock price is about to reach a medium- and long-term bottom. There is a proverb in the stock market: "The land quantity produces the land price". After the land quantity appears, it often means the medium- and long-term buying opportunity. At the same time, the land volume in actual combat is only meaningful if the daily turnover rate is below 0.5% and the weekly turnover rate is below 2%.
(4) Increase in volume: Increase in volume refers to the market trading performance as it begins to be active, investors gradually increase their differences in the future market, and their recognition of the later trend decreases. Increased volume is often a concept of increase or decrease compared to the previous trading volume, and also includes concepts such as horizontal volume increase, vertical volume increase, single-day volume increase, and pile volume.
In actual operation, we generally define that the trading volume on the day is higher than the trading volume on the previous day as a large volume, and then subdivided it into mild volume , huge volume and huge volume. For the previous turnover rate was originally very small (below 1%), and today's transactions were only 10%, but the absolute turnover is still small. Then this horizontal comparison of increase in volume cannot be simply called increase in volume. Only vertical increase in volume with daily turnover rate above 3% is meaningful. Large volume often occurs at the turning point of the market trend, the trend is clear, and the period when speculators are impetuous in the end of the rise and fall. Some people are indifferent to the future market and sell their stocks, while others are optimistic about the future market and absorb a lot. It should be noted that compared with shrinking volume, there is a large false component in increasing volume. The main institutions controlling the market can use their chips to release a large number of them, luring investors who do not know the truth to be deceived.
(5) Moderate increase in volume: is one of the forms of increase in volume. It generally refers to the continuous and mild increase in trading volume after the market was sluggish in the early stage, which is significantly different from the previous shrinkage and sudden huge volume. The trading volume column lines on the K-line chart gradually increase, similar to the "stair-shaped" mild large-volume pattern. Moderate volume increase often refers to a pattern in which the turnover rate on the day is not very large, generally below 5%, but it is obviously more than the previous volume reduction stage. .
If a "stair-shaped" phenomenon occurs at the bottom of an individual stock, it generally indicates that a main organization is absorbing and intervening. Although this does not mean that the stock price will surge sharply immediately, it is enough to attract close attention from investors. When the stock price rises moderately, once the adjustment range is not lower than the low point of the previous period of the increase in volume, and then the volume is increased again after the volume is reduced, then it is often a better opportunity for short and medium-term intervention.
(6) Huge volume: Huge volume is a common form of the type of volume. It is mainly reflected in the sharp increase in transaction volume compared with the previous stage. It releases huge trading volume in both horizontal and vertical comparisons. Generally, the turnover rate is above 10%, which is a very prominent huge column in the trading volume indicator, which is a concentrated release manifestation of the large differences between long and short.
If a huge amount of long positive appears at the low level of the stock price and breaks through the downward trend, it is often the beginning of a big rise and the time to intervene on lows; if a huge amount is released at the end of the rising stage, it usually indicates that the bulls are consumed too much and exhausted, and it will be difficult for the future market to continue to rise; and if a huge amount is released at the end of the decline stage, generally the short selling force of the mostly short side is released in a concentrated manner, and the possibility of a sharp decline in the future market is small, and a short-term rebound is likely to be coming soon. During the decline, you can often see a stock suddenly rise against the trend and rise sharply. When the market's popularity is very low, it will cause a very eye-catching effect of inducing bullishness. This type of stock often only has a short market trend for one or two days, and then accelerates its decline, causing many investors who follow up on the day of the increase in volume to be trapped.
(7)Tian volume: Tian volume is an extreme manifestation of the volume, which means that the market trading is extremely active and the trading volume has reached the highest level within a long period of time, indicating that most people have a great disagreement and have very low recognition of the market's later trend. The volume of the sky can generally be divided into recent volume, phased volume, and historical volume, which is clearly reflected in the daily K-line, weekly K-line, or monthly K-line chart. Generally, when the stock price rises in the medium term or medium-term top, and when big positives and negatives occur, "the volume reaches a sky-high price", the huge volume is often the time to sell in the short term.
In actual operation, the number of people cannot be simply compared horizontally. Only the number of people with a daily turnover rate of more than 20% and a weekly turnover rate of more than 50% is meaningful.
(8) Stack quantity: Stack quantity does not refer to a transaction volume, but refers to the form composed of consecutive transaction volumes. It is reflected in the transaction volume indicators of a certain stage on the K-line chart forming a shape that looks like a mountain pile, which can also be called stage-based increase in volume. The pile volume is often the turnover rate for several consecutive periods, and the turnover rate of each transaction volume is generally above 5%, which is very dazzling in the display of the transaction volume indicator. Generally speaking, when there are major positives or when new main institutions enter the market to grab stocks, they will easily leave traces of piles of money. In addition, if the main institution intends to raise the stock price, it will often make the trading volume very beautiful. For several days or weeks, the trading volume will significantly increase, pushing up the stock price and attracting follow-up markets. Therefore, once the stock price is at a low level, the more beautiful the trading volume is piled on the K-line chart, the more likely it is to generate a large market situation. You should look for opportunities to intervene. On the contrary, if the pile-up pattern appears at a high level, it indicates that there are signs of major institutions reducing positions and shipments. At this time, be cautious. In this case, gradual withdrawal should be the main focus and control the risk of chasing highs. What drives me is by no means money. It is a game, a game that solves my mystery, a game that messes up the greatest mind in human history and makes complicated. For me, passion, challenge, and excitement are all winning this game. This game is a dynamic riddle, a riddle with a pun answer, and the answer is to me tell all the men and women who speculate on Wall Street. In the game, your nerves are pushed to the limit, but the rewards are also very high. Career is a transaction—that is, follow the facts in front of you, not what I think others should do.
Let me remind you: your success will be proportional to the sincerity and loyalty you show in your own efforts. This effort includes insisting on making a record of the market, thinking about it yourself and drawing your own conclusions. If a person wants to live on this game (speculation), he must believe in himself and his own judgment. No one can make a lot of money by telling others how to do it.The stock market is the biggest and most complex mystery invented by humans, and those who solve this mystery deserve the first prize. It takes a long time for a person to learn all the lessons from all his mistakes. Some people say that everything has two sides, but the stock market has only one side, not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. Let this general rule be deeply imprinted in my mind, and the time it takes far exceeds most of the more technical aspects in stock speculation games. There is only one road to success in speculation, and that is to work hard, work hard, and work harder.
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