Recently, former Middle East figure and former Egyptian President Housny Mubarak (in office from 1981 to 2011) has completed his life journey of glory and shame, and has quietly faded out of people's sight.
Two sets of shots with extremely contrasting contrast are lingering in my mind. Nine years ago, the fire of the Tunisian self-immolation vendor immediately spread to Egypt. Thousands of ordinary people shouted "Big cake, freedom and justice" and rushed to the streets and alleys of Cairo and Alexandria. Just 18 days later, on February 11, 2011, Mubarak appeared on the TV screen with a haggard face and announced his resignation as president. Soon, the scenes of the former president, who was in his 80s, being locked in an iron cage for trial were repeatedly broadcast around the world. This is Mubarak's unlucky day!
Another set of completely different pictures, I can't get rid of them in my mind.
Egypt held its presidential election in 1999, Mubarak's most glorious day. On the eve of the voting, the front page of the Pyramid newspaper, with a red title for two consecutive days: "Grandpa Mubarak, we love you!" "Dad Mubarak, we love you!" Egyptian military helicopter appeared in the parks and downtown areas of Cairo, dropping small gifts such as toys, stationery, and children's books to the children. We drove from Cairo to Port Said and saw slogans on both sides of the road calling for Mubarak to be re-election of President Mubarak. It stretched for more than ten kilometers, like flags fluttering, and was spectacular. On the day of the presidential election, Cairo's literary and art celebrities and sports stars came to the polling station, lined up dozens of meters to wait for the vote!
is like two Mubaraks, which one is more real?
On February 26, 2020, Egypt held a funeral for former President Mubarak, and supporters held his photo in his hand. Xinhua News Agency Photo
Blue Sky Pride War Hero
Mubarak was not destined to be nailed to the pillar of historical shame that the iron cage was tried from the beginning. He is a grassroots air force pilot and civilian politician, like a rising political star, entering the vision of the Egyptian people.
drive north from Cairo, drive for more than an hour, and then arrives at Shabin, the capital of Miluf Province. On May 4, 1928, Mubarak was born in a small town about 1 km from Shabin. The son of this judicial official has been obsessed with military affairs since childhood, has lofty ambitions, and works hard. He graduated from the Military Academy and Flight Academy in Egypt, went to the Soviet Union to study flight technology twice, and the third time he studied at the Soviet Union's Fulongzhi Military Academy for one year. As a bomber pilot, he is skilled, persistent and strong in military affairs. On the morning of June 5, 1967, the Israeli Air Force dispatched all its troops to attack Egypt, and the Egyptian Air Force was almost wiped out. Mubarak was in danger shortly after taking off, and immediately made a judgment and landed safely in Luxor . In April 1972, he was promoted to commander of the Air Force, providing air cover for the Egyptian army to cross the Suez Canal on October 6, 1973, and saturated bombing the Balev defense line built by the Israeli army on the east bank of the canal.
On the eve of the October War Before the war, Sadat President asked the Air Force Commander Mubarak, who had just taken office: "Is the Air Force ready for the next battle? Our Air Force has suffered two fatal blows. If we suffer a third blow, it is equivalent to our surrender. Then from that day on the Air Force's list, we will never find our name again. We will become a laughing stock in front of the world." Mubarak replied without hesitation: "Our Air Force can complete any mission assigned to him. We are fully prepared for combat." On the afternoon of October 6, Mubarak commanded the Egyptian Air Force to launch a surprise attack, destroying the Israeli airport, missile control center, radar jamming center, combat command and headquarters on the east bank of the Suez Canal, becoming a war hero, and was deeply appreciated by Sadat. He took off his military uniform and served as Egypt's vice president in 1975. In 1981, he began his presidency in Egypt for nearly 30 years.
On October 31, 1981, Presidential candidate Mubarak voted at the polling station. Xinhua News Agency Picture
Development is set, the dream of a strong country is shattered
stabilizes the political situation and promotes economic reform.Mubarak took the helm of Egypt in the pool of blood when Sadat was assassinated. The political situation was unstable and the situation was serious. After he came to power, he immediately released the opposition leaders in the prison and received a political dialogue from the Presidential Office, unleashing goodwill in person, and eased political tensions. Take measures to purify Islamic extremists in the military and national security organs. A national economic work conference was held in 1982 to correct the disadvantages of "consumer opening up" during the Sadat period (1970-1981) and to cope with the downward pressure on the economy. Mobilize various media to fight Islamic extremism from the religious and ideological levels. However, Mubarak was in bad luck, and oil prices fell in the international market, and Egypt fell into a long-term economic crisis since the mid-1980s. During economic reform, Mubarak withstood the pressure from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and insisted that the reform must be within the endorsement of the Egyptian people. Taking advantage of the rare opportunity brought to Egypt by the Gulf crisis, we successfully reduced and exempted half of Egypt's foreign debt in installments, and began to carry out stable economic reforms in 1991, which ultimately ended Egypt's economic crisis for nearly 10 years. Since the mid-1990s, Egypt has maintained a medium-speed economic growth rate of more than 5% per year, laying the foundation for political stability.
Although Mubarak's economic reform in the 1990s achieved results, the two pillars of developing Egypt's economy and then restoring Egypt's status as a strong country - the horizontal expansion strategy and the dream of a strong country - ended in vain. This is the fundamental reason for the turmoil in Egypt in 2011.
Mubarak believes that the biggest challenge facing Egypt's economy is the rapid population growth, which is based on accurate judgments from history and reality. At the beginning of the 20th century, Egypt's total population was less than 10 million, exceeding 20 million in 1952, doubling within half a century. After the success of the "July Revolution" in Egypt in 1952, the population growth rate was faster, rising to 40.9 million in 1980, 61.4 million in 1998, and 82 million in 2008. It is reported that Egypt's population exceeded 90 million in 2015! One of the ignition points of the outbreak of the "Arab Spring" was that the Western financial crisis in 2008 caused the rise in grain prices in the international market, and the people's livelihood of the middle and lower classes of Arab countries such as Egypt was difficult. Among these, rapid population growth is an extremely important factor.
Egypt's land area is 1 million square kilometers, but 95% of the land is an arid desert that is not suitable for human habitation and life. The winding Nile Valley and the beautiful and fertile Nile Delta account for only 5% of Egypt's land area. In order to alleviate the unbearable pressure on Egypt's environment and resources by rapid population growth, in the late 1990s, the Mubarak government proposed an ambitious horizontal expansion strategy: to demand land from deserts, and strive to increase Egypt's habitable area from 5% to 15%. In addition to building new towns in the deserts around Cairo, the most ambitious project is to use the water of the Nasser lake to develop Upper Egypt land on a large scale, "reproducing the glory of the pharaoh period of Upper Egypt." In 1997, the project of the New Nile Valley (Tuska) began. However, due to its remote location, the weather is unbearable, the project is too grand, the preliminary demonstration is insufficient, the funds cannot be guaranteed, the engineering technology is difficult, and the beginning is too bad, and it ends in fruitlessness!
Mubarak's other broken dream is to build Egypt into an industrial power, a high-tech and financial center in the Middle East. As early as the late Sadat era, Egypt began planning and implementing plans for new communities and new industrial cities. In order to build new industrial cities in the deserts around the capital Cairo and other important cities, Law No. 230 of 1989 further expanded policy preferential efforts. Establishing industrial enterprises in prescribed new industrial cities will extend the duty-free period from 10 years to 15 years. To avoid bureaucratic obstacles faced by private investment, this law gives new industrial cities independent judicial status. By the late 1990s, Egypt had established 15 new industrial cities, including the city of May 15, the city of Ramadan 10 and the city of October 6. By the end of June 1997, these new industrial cities had established 1,965 factories and created 226,000 jobs.
However, although the Mubarak government has made great efforts, the new industrial cities have limited pull on Egypt's industry and have not become a new growth point for Egypt's strong industrial development. Egypt's economy has always been at a medium-speed development level, although it has reached 7% or above in some years.What’s even more unfortunate is that the second round of economic reforms during the Mubarak period, which was launched in 2004, was a start and abrupt end. The privatization has evolved into a series of dramas in which officials and businessmen colluded with swallowing state-owned assets, and the corruption problem is becoming increasingly serious. "The rich have a smell of wine and meat, and they have frozen bones on their way." The people hate it deeply. With the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the lives of the people became increasingly difficult. The cry of Mubarak's industrial power and the call to cultivate an advantageous national industry with international competitiveness have eventually become a hypocritical slogan in the hearts of the Egyptian people.
Middle East Peace Balance Diplomacy
Diplomacy, Mubarak led Egypt to "return to Arab world ". The October War in 1973 ended the war between Egypt and Israel, started a new situation of Egypt's opening up and development, and began the Middle East peace process. However, at that time, most Arab countries were extremely dissatisfied with Sadat's war to promote peace, and Egypt was the first to achieve peace with Israel and establish diplomatic relations. They broke off diplomatic relations with Egypt one after another, and Egypt was expelled from the Arab League. The Arab League headquarters moved from Cairo to Tunisia, and Egypt fell into unprecedented isolation in the Arab world. After Mubarak took office, he adjusted Sadat's actually "one-sided" diplomatic strategy toward the United States, eased relations with Eastern countries such as the Soviet Union, pursued balanced diplomacy between the United States and the Soviet Union, and promoted all-round friendly diplomacy. In 1984, the delegation of ambassadors with the Soviet Union ended the ups and downs between Egypt and the Soviet Union during the Sadat period.
After nearly 10 years of hard work, Mubarak restored his close relationship with the Arab countries and moved his headquarters back to Cairo. Moreover, we will make full use of the opportunities brought to Egypt's Middle East diplomacy by the Madrid peace process, give full play to Egypt's unique geopolitical advantages, religious and personal advantages, mediate between Israel and the PLO, work with the United States to advance the Middle East peace process, and invite Israeli leaders to visit Egypt. Later, he invited the Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat to visit Cairo, Sharm El Sheikh and Alexander to discuss the brotherhood of Arab brothers. During the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, Egypt sent experienced diplomats and knowledgeable experts to serve as advisers to the Palestinian negotiator, imparting experience in negotiations with the Israelis that year, and was deeply trusted by the Palestinian side.
Of course, Egypt also criticized Egypt for mediating between Pakistan and Israel. They believe that Egypt is a member of the Arab family and should stand on the side of the Palestinian brothers. Mediating between Palestinian and Israel and appearing in a neutral capacity is not in line with the Arab identity of Egypt nor the interests of the Palestinian brothers. However, in the complex and changeable Middle Eastern politics, Israel and Palestine attach great importance to the mediation of Egypt, especially President Mubarak. The United States also attaches importance to Egypt's irreplaceable role in the Middle East peace process. In short, Mubarak, as the "peaceful president", restored Egypt's position as the leader in the Arab world.
If Mubarak's reform and development in Egypt's internal affairs have not achieved good results and mixed reputations, then he is undoubtedly a star in diplomacy, with ease between the United States, Europe and the Soviet Union (Russia). Mubarak engages in diplomacy, is unconventional, conducts head diplomacy and "private" diplomacy, makes friends in Europe, and makes good marriages in the United States. He visited Washington " Capitol Hill " many times, directly communicating with U.S. Congressmen in English, chatting and laughing, so that these members who are always picking about the human rights situation in developing countries and understand "his difficulties." He even made a bronze medal that was "not easy to serve" in the United States Congressman who praised him and presented it to him personally on Capitol Hill.
On September 1, 2010, Egyptian President Mubarak held Middle East talks at White House . Oriental IC Picture
Constitutional amendment and casting mistakes, and regrets have passed through the ages
Entering the 21st century, the economic situation and political ecology faced by Mubarak in the later period of his rule have undergone profound changes, but Mubarak is becoming more and more rigid, and eventually becomes an abandoned child of the Egyptian people and history.
Recently, former Middle East figure and former Egyptian President Housny Mubarak (in office from 1981 to 2011) has completed his life journey of glory and shame, and has quietly faded out of people's sight.
Two sets of shots with extremely contrasting contrast are lingering in my mind. Nine years ago, the fire of the Tunisian self-immolation vendor immediately spread to Egypt. Thousands of ordinary people shouted "Big cake, freedom and justice" and rushed to the streets and alleys of Cairo and Alexandria. Just 18 days later, on February 11, 2011, Mubarak appeared on the TV screen with a haggard face and announced his resignation as president. Soon, the scenes of the former president, who was in his 80s, being locked in an iron cage for trial were repeatedly broadcast around the world. This is Mubarak's unlucky day!
Another set of completely different pictures, I can't get rid of them in my mind.
Egypt held its presidential election in 1999, Mubarak's most glorious day. On the eve of the voting, the front page of the Pyramid newspaper, with a red title for two consecutive days: "Grandpa Mubarak, we love you!" "Dad Mubarak, we love you!" Egyptian military helicopter appeared in the parks and downtown areas of Cairo, dropping small gifts such as toys, stationery, and children's books to the children. We drove from Cairo to Port Said and saw slogans on both sides of the road calling for Mubarak to be re-election of President Mubarak. It stretched for more than ten kilometers, like flags fluttering, and was spectacular. On the day of the presidential election, Cairo's literary and art celebrities and sports stars came to the polling station, lined up dozens of meters to wait for the vote!
is like two Mubaraks, which one is more real?
On February 26, 2020, Egypt held a funeral for former President Mubarak, and supporters held his photo in his hand. Xinhua News Agency Photo
Blue Sky Pride War Hero
Mubarak was not destined to be nailed to the pillar of historical shame that the iron cage was tried from the beginning. He is a grassroots air force pilot and civilian politician, like a rising political star, entering the vision of the Egyptian people.
drive north from Cairo, drive for more than an hour, and then arrives at Shabin, the capital of Miluf Province. On May 4, 1928, Mubarak was born in a small town about 1 km from Shabin. The son of this judicial official has been obsessed with military affairs since childhood, has lofty ambitions, and works hard. He graduated from the Military Academy and Flight Academy in Egypt, went to the Soviet Union to study flight technology twice, and the third time he studied at the Soviet Union's Fulongzhi Military Academy for one year. As a bomber pilot, he is skilled, persistent and strong in military affairs. On the morning of June 5, 1967, the Israeli Air Force dispatched all its troops to attack Egypt, and the Egyptian Air Force was almost wiped out. Mubarak was in danger shortly after taking off, and immediately made a judgment and landed safely in Luxor . In April 1972, he was promoted to commander of the Air Force, providing air cover for the Egyptian army to cross the Suez Canal on October 6, 1973, and saturated bombing the Balev defense line built by the Israeli army on the east bank of the canal.
On the eve of the October War Before the war, Sadat President asked the Air Force Commander Mubarak, who had just taken office: "Is the Air Force ready for the next battle? Our Air Force has suffered two fatal blows. If we suffer a third blow, it is equivalent to our surrender. Then from that day on the Air Force's list, we will never find our name again. We will become a laughing stock in front of the world." Mubarak replied without hesitation: "Our Air Force can complete any mission assigned to him. We are fully prepared for combat." On the afternoon of October 6, Mubarak commanded the Egyptian Air Force to launch a surprise attack, destroying the Israeli airport, missile control center, radar jamming center, combat command and headquarters on the east bank of the Suez Canal, becoming a war hero, and was deeply appreciated by Sadat. He took off his military uniform and served as Egypt's vice president in 1975. In 1981, he began his presidency in Egypt for nearly 30 years.
On October 31, 1981, Presidential candidate Mubarak voted at the polling station. Xinhua News Agency Picture
Development is set, the dream of a strong country is shattered
stabilizes the political situation and promotes economic reform.Mubarak took the helm of Egypt in the pool of blood when Sadat was assassinated. The political situation was unstable and the situation was serious. After he came to power, he immediately released the opposition leaders in the prison and received a political dialogue from the Presidential Office, unleashing goodwill in person, and eased political tensions. Take measures to purify Islamic extremists in the military and national security organs. A national economic work conference was held in 1982 to correct the disadvantages of "consumer opening up" during the Sadat period (1970-1981) and to cope with the downward pressure on the economy. Mobilize various media to fight Islamic extremism from the religious and ideological levels. However, Mubarak was in bad luck, and oil prices fell in the international market, and Egypt fell into a long-term economic crisis since the mid-1980s. During economic reform, Mubarak withstood the pressure from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and insisted that the reform must be within the endorsement of the Egyptian people. Taking advantage of the rare opportunity brought to Egypt by the Gulf crisis, we successfully reduced and exempted half of Egypt's foreign debt in installments, and began to carry out stable economic reforms in 1991, which ultimately ended Egypt's economic crisis for nearly 10 years. Since the mid-1990s, Egypt has maintained a medium-speed economic growth rate of more than 5% per year, laying the foundation for political stability.
Although Mubarak's economic reform in the 1990s achieved results, the two pillars of developing Egypt's economy and then restoring Egypt's status as a strong country - the horizontal expansion strategy and the dream of a strong country - ended in vain. This is the fundamental reason for the turmoil in Egypt in 2011.
Mubarak believes that the biggest challenge facing Egypt's economy is the rapid population growth, which is based on accurate judgments from history and reality. At the beginning of the 20th century, Egypt's total population was less than 10 million, exceeding 20 million in 1952, doubling within half a century. After the success of the "July Revolution" in Egypt in 1952, the population growth rate was faster, rising to 40.9 million in 1980, 61.4 million in 1998, and 82 million in 2008. It is reported that Egypt's population exceeded 90 million in 2015! One of the ignition points of the outbreak of the "Arab Spring" was that the Western financial crisis in 2008 caused the rise in grain prices in the international market, and the people's livelihood of the middle and lower classes of Arab countries such as Egypt was difficult. Among these, rapid population growth is an extremely important factor.
Egypt's land area is 1 million square kilometers, but 95% of the land is an arid desert that is not suitable for human habitation and life. The winding Nile Valley and the beautiful and fertile Nile Delta account for only 5% of Egypt's land area. In order to alleviate the unbearable pressure on Egypt's environment and resources by rapid population growth, in the late 1990s, the Mubarak government proposed an ambitious horizontal expansion strategy: to demand land from deserts, and strive to increase Egypt's habitable area from 5% to 15%. In addition to building new towns in the deserts around Cairo, the most ambitious project is to use the water of the Nasser lake to develop Upper Egypt land on a large scale, "reproducing the glory of the pharaoh period of Upper Egypt." In 1997, the project of the New Nile Valley (Tuska) began. However, due to its remote location, the weather is unbearable, the project is too grand, the preliminary demonstration is insufficient, the funds cannot be guaranteed, the engineering technology is difficult, and the beginning is too bad, and it ends in fruitlessness!
Mubarak's other broken dream is to build Egypt into an industrial power, a high-tech and financial center in the Middle East. As early as the late Sadat era, Egypt began planning and implementing plans for new communities and new industrial cities. In order to build new industrial cities in the deserts around the capital Cairo and other important cities, Law No. 230 of 1989 further expanded policy preferential efforts. Establishing industrial enterprises in prescribed new industrial cities will extend the duty-free period from 10 years to 15 years. To avoid bureaucratic obstacles faced by private investment, this law gives new industrial cities independent judicial status. By the late 1990s, Egypt had established 15 new industrial cities, including the city of May 15, the city of Ramadan 10 and the city of October 6. By the end of June 1997, these new industrial cities had established 1,965 factories and created 226,000 jobs.
However, although the Mubarak government has made great efforts, the new industrial cities have limited pull on Egypt's industry and have not become a new growth point for Egypt's strong industrial development. Egypt's economy has always been at a medium-speed development level, although it has reached 7% or above in some years.What’s even more unfortunate is that the second round of economic reforms during the Mubarak period, which was launched in 2004, was a start and abrupt end. The privatization has evolved into a series of dramas in which officials and businessmen colluded with swallowing state-owned assets, and the corruption problem is becoming increasingly serious. "The rich have a smell of wine and meat, and they have frozen bones on their way." The people hate it deeply. With the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the lives of the people became increasingly difficult. The cry of Mubarak's industrial power and the call to cultivate an advantageous national industry with international competitiveness have eventually become a hypocritical slogan in the hearts of the Egyptian people.
Middle East Peace Balance Diplomacy
Diplomacy, Mubarak led Egypt to "return to Arab world ". The October War in 1973 ended the war between Egypt and Israel, started a new situation of Egypt's opening up and development, and began the Middle East peace process. However, at that time, most Arab countries were extremely dissatisfied with Sadat's war to promote peace, and Egypt was the first to achieve peace with Israel and establish diplomatic relations. They broke off diplomatic relations with Egypt one after another, and Egypt was expelled from the Arab League. The Arab League headquarters moved from Cairo to Tunisia, and Egypt fell into unprecedented isolation in the Arab world. After Mubarak took office, he adjusted Sadat's actually "one-sided" diplomatic strategy toward the United States, eased relations with Eastern countries such as the Soviet Union, pursued balanced diplomacy between the United States and the Soviet Union, and promoted all-round friendly diplomacy. In 1984, the delegation of ambassadors with the Soviet Union ended the ups and downs between Egypt and the Soviet Union during the Sadat period.
After nearly 10 years of hard work, Mubarak restored his close relationship with the Arab countries and moved his headquarters back to Cairo. Moreover, we will make full use of the opportunities brought to Egypt's Middle East diplomacy by the Madrid peace process, give full play to Egypt's unique geopolitical advantages, religious and personal advantages, mediate between Israel and the PLO, work with the United States to advance the Middle East peace process, and invite Israeli leaders to visit Egypt. Later, he invited the Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat to visit Cairo, Sharm El Sheikh and Alexander to discuss the brotherhood of Arab brothers. During the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, Egypt sent experienced diplomats and knowledgeable experts to serve as advisers to the Palestinian negotiator, imparting experience in negotiations with the Israelis that year, and was deeply trusted by the Palestinian side.
Of course, Egypt also criticized Egypt for mediating between Pakistan and Israel. They believe that Egypt is a member of the Arab family and should stand on the side of the Palestinian brothers. Mediating between Palestinian and Israel and appearing in a neutral capacity is not in line with the Arab identity of Egypt nor the interests of the Palestinian brothers. However, in the complex and changeable Middle Eastern politics, Israel and Palestine attach great importance to the mediation of Egypt, especially President Mubarak. The United States also attaches importance to Egypt's irreplaceable role in the Middle East peace process. In short, Mubarak, as the "peaceful president", restored Egypt's position as the leader in the Arab world.
If Mubarak's reform and development in Egypt's internal affairs have not achieved good results and mixed reputations, then he is undoubtedly a star in diplomacy, with ease between the United States, Europe and the Soviet Union (Russia). Mubarak engages in diplomacy, is unconventional, conducts head diplomacy and "private" diplomacy, makes friends in Europe, and makes good marriages in the United States. He visited Washington " Capitol Hill " many times, directly communicating with U.S. Congressmen in English, chatting and laughing, so that these members who are always picking about the human rights situation in developing countries and understand "his difficulties." He even made a bronze medal that was "not easy to serve" in the United States Congressman who praised him and presented it to him personally on Capitol Hill.
On September 1, 2010, Egyptian President Mubarak held Middle East talks at White House . Oriental IC Picture
Constitutional amendment and casting mistakes, and regrets have passed through the ages
Entering the 21st century, the economic situation and political ecology faced by Mubarak in the later period of his rule have undergone profound changes, but Mubarak is becoming more and more rigid, and eventually becomes an abandoned child of the Egyptian people and history.On the one hand, before the Western financial crisis broke out in 2008, Egypt still did not realize its dream of rapid economic growth of more than 7% per year under the favorable international economic situation. On the other hand, the political ecology of Egypt has undergone major changes. With the emergence of the US "Greater Middle East Plan", the growth of Egypt's middle class has emerged, and a group of so-called new opposition parties have emerged in addition to the legal opposition parties. For example, an opposition group "Kafaye" appeared (the Arabic "Kafaye" means "enough", which literally means that Mubarak has been the president of Egypt for so many years, "enough". Interestingly, Mubarak's supporters formed an organization "Mushkafaye", which literally means "not enough" to cheer for Mubarak's continued as Egyptian president). These new opposition parties are dissatisfied with the weak economic growth of Egypt under Mubarak, and hate the inefficiency of national governance and government corruption. Mubarak "sitted alone on the feast of democratization", and the constitutional amendment in 2005 put him on the road of no return.
Faced with the dual pressure from the domestic opposition and the United States, Mubarak took offense as the defense and initiated the constitutional amendment process, revising Article 76 of the 1971 Permanent Constitution to pave the way for the so-called competitive presidential direct election. Article 76 of the constitution revised in 2005 sets a very high entry threshold for opposition presidential candidates. The constitutional amendment makes three distinctions to presidential candidates. First, the distinction between the ruling National Democratic Party and other legal party candidates. Presidential candidates must receive support from a total of at least 250 members of the People's Congress, Consultative Conference and Provincial Assembly, and must receive support from at least 65 members of the People's Congress, 25 members of the Consultative Conference and 10 members of the Provincial Assembly in at least 14 provinces (Egypt has 26 provinces and municipalities directly under Luxor). Under this condition, only the ruling party can launch a presidential candidate. Secondly, in order to ease the criticism of the legitimate opposition party, the parties participated in the presidential elections in 2005 and 2011 were distinguished, allowing the then legal parties to unconditionally recommend their leaders to participate in the presidential elections held on September 7, 2005. However, in the presidential elections in 2011 and later, only political parties that receive 5% of the seats of the People's Congress and the Consultative Conference, and who have carried out "party work" for more than five years in a row before announcing the recommendation of presidential candidates. This rule actually almost completely ruled out the possibility of the legitimate opposition party launching a presidential candidate for the 2011 presidential election, as the opposition has only a few symbolic seats in the People's Assembly and Consultative Conference. The Muslim Brotherhood has also ruled out the eligibility of launching a presidential candidate, as the Mubarak regime prohibits the fraternity from forming its own party. Third, the distinction between party candidates and independent candidates. This condition of obtaining support from at least 250 members elected by the People's Congress, Consultative Conference and Provincial Parliament can almost completely deprive any independent candidate, including the "independent candidate" introduced by the Brotherhood, to participate in the 2011 presidential election.
This constitutional amendment proves Egyptian society and the West’s suspicion of Mubarak over the years - "father passes on to sons, family is the whole country", that is, he attempts to hand over the regime "legally" and "democratic" to his son Gamar Mubarak. This really wiped out the last slightest fantasy of the opposition. Mubarak seemed to be able to rule as usual, but the political atmosphere became increasingly tense. In the 2010 People's Congress election, the ruling National Democratic Party won a great victory in a political high-pressure atmosphere. Egyptian society is filled with an atmosphere of helpless waiting, anxiety and waiting: I always feel that what is going to happen, and I don’t know whether it is a good or a bad thing; I wake up the next day and the days are the same, nothing happens; I continue to wait...
Mubarak’s legacy and revelation
Once, a Chinese scholar frankly told Korean scholars: Is South Korea’s political system a little problem, or why is the South Korean president always so sad after he stepped down? Some seek short-sightedness or are imprisoned! Looking back at the distant North African country Egypt, the three presidents of the Republic also had a miserable evening: Abdu Nasser, the founder of the Egyptian Republic and the leader of the Krisma type, died of exhaustion in the presidency on September 28, 1970, at the age of 52. Premier Zhou Enlai said with pain: "He died of heartbreak, he died of heartbreak. This is the fault of the superpower. They deceived him.They pushed him into trouble and then abandoned him, and they let him break his heart. "The second president of Egypt, Anwar Sadat, the hero of "crossing the (Suez) Canal", was frantically shot by Islamic extremists on the parade platform in full view of the public. President Mubarak, eventually was tolerated by the kind Egyptian people and passed away silently. However, if Abdullah Fatah Sisi had not launched the "Second Revolution" in 2013, Mubarak's ending would be completely different!
Looking back at the legacy left by Mubarak, we must turn our attention to Egypt nearly 70 years ago. In 1952, the "Free Officers Organization" led by Nasser overthrew the corrupt Farouk dynasty, expelled the British colonial forces, and completed the historical mission of independent and founding a country. As a representative of the petty bourgeoisie, Nasser strives to eliminate class differences, develop the economy, and improve people's livelihood while fighting against imperialism and anti-feudalism and pursuing independence and freedom. Nasser left two major heritages for Egypt. First, through land reform, nationalization movement, wide coverage and low-level social welfare, it effectively promotes social equality, improves the political status of the middle and lower-class population, and gains economic benefits. For example, freezing land rent and rent, free education and the policy of providing university and middle school graduates to effectively narrow the two-level differentiation, which is the so-called Nasser socialism. Secondly, the Nasser regime established a sound national economic system in the 1960s and took important steps in economic independence. It has made important achievements in industrialization, and Egypt has developed from an agricultural country to an agricultural and industrial country. 195 From 2 to 1966, the GDP grew by an average of 6.12% per year. Despite this, Egypt's economy plummeted after the Six-Day War in 1967. In short, Nasser did not solve the development problem.
Sadat disagreed with Nasser's "arbitrary action" and the policy measures to suppress the big landlords and big capitalists, and completely denied Nasser's socialism. In 1974, it launched the "open policy" to introduce Arab capital and foreign capital, encourage Egypt's private sector investment, and vigorously develop the Egyptian economy. Sadat activated the economic vitality of Egypt's society and achieved rapid economic growth, but "consumer opening up" caused serious consequences: most foreign capital and private sectors invested in short, flat and fast economic sectors, such as tourism and housing. Real estate, etc., the economy is falsely prosperous and inflation is high; the real economy, especially the manufacturing industry, has not risen but retreats, and gradually relies on the four major economic pillars of remittances, tourism, oil and Suez Canal tolls. Egyptian society is ahead of schedule and lacks savings and accumulation; under Sadat's open policy, landlords and capitalists who have been hit in the past have made a comeback, colluding with the bureaucratic bourgeoisie, and the corruption problem is serious; polarization intensifies, and the middle and lower-class population is deprived. In short, Egypt has fallen into the deadlock that economists call "growth but no development".
When Mubarak took office, a reporter asked him: He is going to take the path of Nasser or Sadat. Mubarak gave a loud answer: "My name is Husney Mubarak! "History has proved that after 30 years of Mubarak's rule, the Egyptian people were dissatisfied with the Q&A of this major political issue. To be fair, in the early days of Mubarak's rule, roughly before 2000, he had a solid understanding of Egypt's reform, development and stability, and he was attentive to govern. The economic reform and structural adjustment carried out in the early 1990s were successful. Mubarak was always unswerving about Egypt's development, especially the dream of a strong country. However, in the later years of Mubarak's rule, the collusion between officials and businessmen became increasingly serious, and the second round of economic reform was absurd. The board not only aggravates polarization and the difficulties of people's livelihood, but also causes development to lose momentum. As the saying goes, "A waste of money is gone"!
If Nasser only solved the issue of fairness and did not solve the development problem; Sadat solved the issue of growth, did not solve the development problem, and did not solve the issue of equality, but instead allowed society to slide to polarization; then, Mubarak was cautious in speaking and doing things on the issue of fairness, emphasizing the protection of the interests of the limited income class, but it was only a low-level passive protection, and ultimately did not make a breakthrough in the issue of development.
Mubarak's thirty years of rule may tell us: Only by promoting development through reform, let development and fairness be like the two wings of a bird and two wheels of a car, flying together and running side by side, can we solve the development problems of Egypt. Only by strengthening top-level design, making up our minds, and solving social justice problems can we make development sustainable. At the same time, we will increase the intensity and intensity of reforms, promote profits and eliminate disadvantages, rectify administration, fight corruption and promote integrity, eradicate the old problems that have never been eliminated in Egypt's economic and social governance for decades, eradicate bureaucracy, and provide good institutional guarantees for the operation of the market economy. If so, society will be vibrant and development will be motivated.
This may be the legacy left by Mubarak for Egypt?
They pushed him into trouble and then abandoned him, and they let him break his heart. "The second president of Egypt, Anwar Sadat, the hero of "crossing the (Suez) Canal", was frantically shot by Islamic extremists on the parade platform in full view of the public. President Mubarak, eventually was tolerated by the kind Egyptian people and passed away silently. However, if Abdullah Fatah Sisi had not launched the "Second Revolution" in 2013, Mubarak's ending would be completely different!Looking back at the legacy left by Mubarak, we must turn our attention to Egypt nearly 70 years ago. In 1952, the "Free Officers Organization" led by Nasser overthrew the corrupt Farouk dynasty, expelled the British colonial forces, and completed the historical mission of independent and founding a country. As a representative of the petty bourgeoisie, Nasser strives to eliminate class differences, develop the economy, and improve people's livelihood while fighting against imperialism and anti-feudalism and pursuing independence and freedom. Nasser left two major heritages for Egypt. First, through land reform, nationalization movement, wide coverage and low-level social welfare, it effectively promotes social equality, improves the political status of the middle and lower-class population, and gains economic benefits. For example, freezing land rent and rent, free education and the policy of providing university and middle school graduates to effectively narrow the two-level differentiation, which is the so-called Nasser socialism. Secondly, the Nasser regime established a sound national economic system in the 1960s and took important steps in economic independence. It has made important achievements in industrialization, and Egypt has developed from an agricultural country to an agricultural and industrial country. 195 From 2 to 1966, the GDP grew by an average of 6.12% per year. Despite this, Egypt's economy plummeted after the Six-Day War in 1967. In short, Nasser did not solve the development problem.
Sadat disagreed with Nasser's "arbitrary action" and the policy measures to suppress the big landlords and big capitalists, and completely denied Nasser's socialism. In 1974, it launched the "open policy" to introduce Arab capital and foreign capital, encourage Egypt's private sector investment, and vigorously develop the Egyptian economy. Sadat activated the economic vitality of Egypt's society and achieved rapid economic growth, but "consumer opening up" caused serious consequences: most foreign capital and private sectors invested in short, flat and fast economic sectors, such as tourism and housing. Real estate, etc., the economy is falsely prosperous and inflation is high; the real economy, especially the manufacturing industry, has not risen but retreats, and gradually relies on the four major economic pillars of remittances, tourism, oil and Suez Canal tolls. Egyptian society is ahead of schedule and lacks savings and accumulation; under Sadat's open policy, landlords and capitalists who have been hit in the past have made a comeback, colluding with the bureaucratic bourgeoisie, and the corruption problem is serious; polarization intensifies, and the middle and lower-class population is deprived. In short, Egypt has fallen into the deadlock that economists call "growth but no development".
When Mubarak took office, a reporter asked him: He is going to take the path of Nasser or Sadat. Mubarak gave a loud answer: "My name is Husney Mubarak! "History has proved that after 30 years of Mubarak's rule, the Egyptian people were dissatisfied with the Q&A of this major political issue. To be fair, in the early days of Mubarak's rule, roughly before 2000, he had a solid understanding of Egypt's reform, development and stability, and he was attentive to govern. The economic reform and structural adjustment carried out in the early 1990s were successful. Mubarak was always unswerving about Egypt's development, especially the dream of a strong country. However, in the later years of Mubarak's rule, the collusion between officials and businessmen became increasingly serious, and the second round of economic reform was absurd. The board not only aggravates polarization and the difficulties of people's livelihood, but also causes development to lose momentum. As the saying goes, "A waste of money is gone"!
If Nasser only solved the issue of fairness and did not solve the development problem; Sadat solved the issue of growth, did not solve the development problem, and did not solve the issue of equality, but instead allowed society to slide to polarization; then, Mubarak was cautious in speaking and doing things on the issue of fairness, emphasizing the protection of the interests of the limited income class, but it was only a low-level passive protection, and ultimately did not make a breakthrough in the issue of development.
Mubarak's thirty years of rule may tell us: Only by promoting development through reform, let development and fairness be like the two wings of a bird and two wheels of a car, flying together and running side by side, can we solve the development problems of Egypt. Only by strengthening top-level design, making up our minds, and solving social justice problems can we make development sustainable. At the same time, we will increase the intensity and intensity of reforms, promote profits and eliminate disadvantages, rectify administration, fight corruption and promote integrity, eradicate the old problems that have never been eliminated in Egypt's economic and social governance for decades, eradicate bureaucracy, and provide good institutional guarantees for the operation of the market economy. If so, society will be vibrant and development will be motivated.
This may be the legacy left by Mubarak for Egypt?
