The latest gold market analysis:
Gold news analysis: On Tuesday (September 27), the US dollar index maintained a sharp decline, currently located around 113.35, falling 75 points during the day. Spot gold expanded its rebound trend, the price of gold just exceeded $1,640 per ounce, and rose by $18 during the day. The dollar's decline from its more than 20-year high gives gold bulls a respite, and concerns about the global recession and geopolitical situation also provide safe-haven support for gold prices. The market's expectations for the U.S. durable goods order data that will be released later in the United States is pessimistic and attracts support for buying on dips. However, many Fed officials delivered hawkish speeches. Other Fed officials this week are likely to reiterate their views on further rate hikes. Most of the world's central banks tend to further hikes, which may limit the rebound space of gold prices.
The Fed's rumor that it will not cut interest rates next year and will focus on inflation indicators in the future. In addition, the pound has fallen to a historical low, which is beneficial to the US dollar, resulting in gold denominated in US dollars being indirectly implicated. Gold closed down on Monday to hit a new low since April 2020. However, gold will not be without support in the future. First of all, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is not over. If there is update news in the future, it will stimulate gold to return to safe-haven. Secondly, too low prices may push up the physical buying of gold. On Tuesday, the market needs to pay attention to Fed Chairman Powell, Chicago Fed Chairman Evans, and St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad delivered speeches one after another. The Fed agreed to unanimously reach hawkish rhetoric to boost the dollar's strong rise and pay attention to whether their attitudes have changed. In addition, pay attention to the speech of the European Central Bank President Lagarde , and also pay attention to the issue of interest rate hikes, which will have a direct impact on European currencies.
Gold technical analysis: The US dollar index rose strongly, and the gold price was under pressure. Yesterday, gold fell to the 1626 line and then rebounded volatility. European and American market rebounded twice without breaking the pressure of 1650. In the second half of the night, gold also fell again as the US index rebounded again, falling to the 1620 line, and the daily line finally closed with another negative line. On the daily structure, the medium-term trend support of gold 1630 has fallen. According to previous expectations, 1630 has fallen, and it is very likely that it will further test towards the long-term trend support of 1610-00, but it is still unexpected that such an extreme decline will occur in a short period of time. Although gold is extremely weak at present, it is currently technically serious in oversold , and the bottom divergence pattern is serious. It may rebound due to a certain news or the US dollar's decline at any time. However, this rebound is only a technical rebound, and it is not too much to look forward to it. After all, the US dollar is currently under strong pressure, and the pressure on gold is still very heavy in terms of market sentiment.
Combined with the daily and hourly chart structure, gold still continues to look at the expectations of adjustment intraday, but as the market gradually approaches long-term trend support and as time goes by, the room for further decline in the short-term market is relatively limited, but if there is no clear turning point signal on the fundamentals, gold rebound is also very limited. The above during the day will continue to focus on the 1650 competition. This position will determine whether gold can get rid of its weak state. At the same time, the current competition in the 1630-35 area will also become the key to the short-term competition in the day. The competition below the day will continue to be focused on the competition near the 1620 low yesterday, but the main support will still look to the 1610-00 area. If the US dollar index strengthens extremely, gold will not rule out the possibility of below 1600. In terms of operation, the main idea of intraday is still to focus on low-to-high-altitude in the short-term range, which can be slightly biased towards short-to-shortness, but if the fundamentals have a turnaround and long-stop attempt, it can also be moderately strengthened. Overall, today's short-term gold operation ideas are recommended to focus on short-selling in rebounds and long-selling in pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper short-term focus on the 1640-1645 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the 1615-1610 line of support.
Latest Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude Oil News Analysis: On Tuesday (September 27), international oil prices rose by more than 2%, leaving the nearly nine-month low set overnight, as there are signs that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) may implement production cuts to avoid further plummeting oil prices.In the previous two trading days, international oil prices plummeted more than 7% as the surge in the US dollar made US dollar denominated crude oil more expensive for non-US dollar holders and investors are increasingly worried that rising interest rates will trigger a recession and lead to a decrease in fuel demand. Officials from major oil-producing countries responded to the sharp drop in oil prices, saying they may take action to keep prices stable. Analysts say further sell-offs in the oil market may prompt OPEC+ to support prices through collective production cuts. Analysts said OPEC will need to cut production by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day to keep the price of Brent crude oil above $90. He also expects oil inventories to continue to increase before the first quarter of next year despite a decline in Russian oil exports. He said: "If OPEC does not cut production, the market may be in a forward premium in the first quarter of next year. Therefore, if they want to see the price stay around $90, they will have to cut production." Market analysts said: "We expect NYMEX crude oil futures prices to rebound to $80 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices are expected to rebound to $87 per barrel."
Crude oil from a technical perspective, 2-hour level Don't rebound after fluctuating and falling; MACD golden cross , KDJ golden cross, slightly biased towards bulls in the short term, pay attention to the resistance near 78.45 of the middle rail of Bollinger Band . If it can exceed this resistance, it is expected to further test the resistance near the 80 integer mark. The strong resistance is around 81.56 of the 38.2% retracement level of 90.16-76.23. If it can rebound strongly above this position, it will increase the short-term peak signal. At present, before the peak of 81.56, the market is still weak in the future, with initial support around 10 moving average of 77.15, and the recent low support is around 76.23. Strong support refers to the support of the year's low of 74.27 set on January 3, and further support is around 73.34 on December 9. From the hourly chart, NYMEX crude oil is trying to stand firm above $78, and is expected to further rise to $79 and $80 later. But on the daily basis, NYMEX crude oil continues to bearish, still in the downward iii wave starting from $90.19, with support below looking towards the 85.4% target at $76.13 and the 100% target at $73.73. The iii wave is a sub-wave that started the downward (iii) wave since $97.66. (iii) Wave is a sub-wave of the downward ((c)) wave that started from $123.68. ((c)) Wave belongs to the 4 waves that have been adjusted since the start of $130.50. Overall, today's short-term operation ideas for crude oil today's Wenbo recommends that the rebound is mainly rebounding at high altitudes, and the pullback is supplemented by low longs. The short-term focus on the upper short-term focus on the 80.2-80.7 line resistance, and the short-term focus on the 76.8-76.3 line support.
