Author of this article: 小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小小�
According to surveys by professional institutions, more than 60% of families in my country are conservative investments. If we look at gender, women prefer conservative investments, which is expected to account for more than 90%.
1. Should we be conservative?
A netizen once had this doubt: 20 years ago, the money I saved every year was enough to eat boxed lunches for 4 months. Although my salary has increased several times, the money I saved every year was only enough to eat boxed lunches for more than 2 months. Where did my money go?
In fact, this is the thug of inflation. In the 20 years from 1999 to 2018, although the announced average price CPI rose by 48%, the M2 representing the total amount of money increased by 16 times, the GDP representing the total amount of goods increased by nearly 5 times, and the prices measured by the total amount of money increased by more than 11 times.
If CPI is used as the target of preserving value, the annual income needs to reach more than 2% (the compound annual growth rate corresponding to 48%); if overall price is used as the target of preserving value, the annual income needs to reach more than 13% (the compound annual growth rate corresponding to 11 times). In recent years, with the decline in the growth rate of currency, the overall price increase has gradually fallen back to around 4%.
Conservative investors' "no loss" is not only the principal is not a loss, but also the purchasing power should not decline. Then the average annual investment return needs to reach more than 4%, the higher the better. Otherwise, even if you hold money funds and make money every day, the yield is too low and you will still lose money in the long run.
2.What will affect our profit and loss?
There was a text in elementary school called "The Pony Crosses the River". The general meaning was that a pony was about to cross the river. Uncle Niu said that the water was shallow, so don't worry, but the little squirrel said that the water was deep and drowned a good friend of his a few days ago.
The pony is hesitant and doesn't know if he can cross the river. Later, my mother told him that she would know by trying it.
Due to the different heights of Uncle Niu and Little Squirrel, the conclusions of the deep diving of the river are very different. For investors, risks are relative. It can be said that those who are not familiar with are risks, and those who are familiar with are opportunities to make profits.
In investment, investors should consider their professional knowledge and only buy the products they are most familiar with. On the other hand, they need to strengthen their learning, constantly improve their understanding of various investment products, and seize more investment opportunities. I personally recommend that ordinary investors start with low-risk products and study and invest while learning. The specific steps to get in touch with the product are:
Money Fund-Pure Bond Fund- Convertible Bond Fund -Mixed Fund- Stock Fund - Index Fund .
The factors that affect the first two products of
are simple and will basically not lose money; convertible bond funds have a few factors that affect them, and may suffer losses, but the risks are controllable; stock funds and index funds have many factors that affect returns, and may suffer huge losses.
Conservative investors focus on choosing pure bond funds and convertible bond funds with low risks and simple influencing factors. They can make money easily and achieve relatively satisfactory returns.
The main factor affecting pure bond funds is the interest rate, which is suitable for investment during the interest rate cut.
The main factors that affect the returns of convertible bond funds are interest rate trend, fund manager investment level and market valuation level. It is suitable for choosing convertible bond funds managed by high-quality fund managers to invest in during the period of interest rate cuts + low valuation.
3. How to build your own conservative fund portfolio?
Conservative fund combination can be used to allocate 100% of short-term bond funds in daily life, and obtain an average annual guaranteed return of 3.3%. In the case of low risks, consider allocating convertible bond funds. Convertible bond funds mainly invest in convertible bonds and a small number of stocks, and the biggest lethality to the fund's net value is the stock market plummeting.
Considering the extreme, it will be reversed. Investors can design strategies to avoid the risk of plunge in the convertible bond market, that is, they can only invest in convertible bond funds at the end of the year that meets the following conditions at the same time:
(1) The price-to-earnings ratio of CSI 300 Index at the end of the year is less than 15;
(2) The annual CSI 300 Index plummeted by more than 20%.
In the context of meeting the above situation, 25% of short-term bonds and 75% of convertible bonds will be allocated in the next year. At the end of each year, when the convertible bonds make a profit of 50% or more, 100% of short-term bonds will be allocated in the next year.
We use CSI short-term bonds and CSI convertible bonds to replace short-term bond funds and convertible bond funds to test. From 2009 to 2019, the above strategy of
had a cumulative profit of 189%, with an annualized return of 10.13%. In 2011, it only lost 0.23% in 2013, and achieved positive returns in the rest of the years. When choosing funds in detail, if you choose high-quality pure bond funds and convertible bond funds, you are expected to obtain more considerable returns.
If you want to get more profits, you can consider appropriately adding high-quality stock indexes, such as CCTV Financial Index, and purchasing the corresponding index funds.
or above is a suggestion for conservative investors, hoping to help everyone achieve stable investment profits.
Content introduction
Faced with high housing prices, tuition fees and pension fees, constant problems of Internet financial products, financial products with lower returns, and complex stock market, many people are full of confusion about personal financial investment: What should I buy when I get low? How to buy it?
Professional matters should be left to professionals. A fund is a financial management tool that gives money to financial experts for investment management. The threshold is very low and the investment scope is very wide. Make good use of funds and you can hand over the financial troubles to experts and leave the happiness of financial management to yourself.
This book is based on providing financial management novices with knowledge from introductory to proficient fund investment. The author Ji Shaochengduo extracts the wisdom of many investment masters at home and abroad. With the help of the fund tool, it combines "buy less" and "buy well" to help readers achieve considerable investment returns in a simple way.
Author profile
base less, Snowball Big V (ID: Vu, 81), special contributor of Tiantian Fund and Ant Wealth, national financial youth service star, senior economist, certified public accountant (CPA) and registered tax accountant, known as "base little".
focuses on studying how to use funds to allocate household assets, and has published more than 900 original financial articles, proposing a variety of simple and easy investment strategies such as threshold fixed investment, bull and bear fingers, steady and high returns, and one advance and two retreats, helping netizens quickly master the skills of making money and practice the life philosophy of "investment path, wealth together". In the past two bull markets, some investment income has been successfully allocated to real estate and enjoyed the excess returns of major asset allocation.
The net value of his three combinations on Snowball doubled. Among them, the A-share computer ETF rose 157% in one year and eight months, the fund portfolio "trend value 1" doubled in four years, and the US stock tuition ETF rose 108% in one year and 10 months, both of which significantly outperformed the mainstream index of the corresponding market, ranking in the top 4% in the Snowball Millions Group.
