One of the biggest pain points in daily life of contemporary office workers - transportation. I squeezed into the bus, competed in the subway, and competed for Didi. I was so crowded when driving on the road, and I was so tired when queuing for a taxi.
Is this a normal life that we must accept for a long time? No.
examines the current situation and future possibilities of mobile travel services. Mobile travel services are constantly expanding the market in the form of replacing existing services.
Today, the workplace guy talks about the new phenomenon of mobile travel under sharing economy -
The difference between shared car and shared carpooling
New mobile travel services can be roughly divided into two categories: "shared car" and "shared carpooling".
Mobile travel service type
The biggest difference between the two is whether the user borrows a car and drives (shared car) by himself, or as a passenger, rides a car with a driver. In other words, the biggest competitors of shared car are rental cars and private cars, while the biggest competitors of shared carpooling are taxis and buses. In shared cars, there are "offline"-type services and "received and returned at will"-type services. The "outline" type has become mainstream in Japan and the car needs to be returned to the ride location. The "return at will" type has become mainstream in Europe, just drive the car to the agreed location in advance. In addition, on the basis of maintaining these two services of car, a "PtoP" type shared carpooling service has gradually emerged. In this service, users can rent cars between individuals when they do not use their own private cars.
There are also various service methods in shared carpooling. These service methods can be roughly divided into taxi ride-hailing platforms popular in China (Didi type), narrowly shared carpooling (Uber type) that connects individuals and professional taxi drivers popular in the United States and emerging countries, and personal matching services based on carpooling (BlaBlaCar type) popular in Europe.
New and old comparison
The Didi type and Uber type are essentially the same service from the user's perspective. Which one will become mainstream will be determined by the maturity (organization) degree of taxi industry in various countries and the acceptance of individual taxis. In fact, Japan is one of the countries with an organized taxi industry. In Japan, Uber Technology in the United States is trying to enter the Japanese market through the Didi taxi hailing platform for the society. In addition, most of China's largest taxi companies are state-owned enterprises, and in China, Uber has lost in the competition with Didi.
Uber is more popular in the United States and emerging countries
However, in the United States and emerging countries, taxi companies are not organized and have low trust in drivers. Since Uber-style car-sharing service can organize individual taxi operators and ensure driver qualifications through online evaluation systems, their demand for Uber-style car-sharing service is rapidly expanding. The biggest difference between the Uber model and the BlaBlaCar model is that the Uber model is more profitable. In the Uber model, drivers basically drive to make money. Generally speaking, the fare will be increased and other changes according to demand during peak car use periods. Relatively speaking, in the BlaBlaCar type matching service, the driver basically summons passengers based on his or her mobile destination, and the fare is in principle to share the cost (by the way, Uber also has a service called "Uber Pool" to provide carpool services to passengers in the same direction, but this service is mainly profitable).
In various countries, there are an increase in innovative companies related to mobile mobility services, with innovative companies providing shared cars or shared carpooling accounting for the majority. If you compare the number of innovative companies that share car and share carpooling in various countries, you can know that in countries with higher labor costs, the proportion of shared cars is higher, while in countries with lower labor costs, the proportion of shared carpooling is higher.
Service types of mobile travel services (innovative enterprises) in various countries
According to regions, developed countries mainly use shared cars, while emerging countries mainly use shared carpooling. However, even in developed countries, the United States and the United Kingdom, which are more active in immigration employment, are evenly matched by shared cars and shared carpooling. In addition, in the United States and the United Kingdom, where the financial industry is relatively active, many innovative companies have emerged not only in the fields of direct transportation services such as car sharing and shared carpooling, but also in the field of intermediary services for car (used cars) purchase and sale, as well as in the fields of financial derivative services such as personalized car insurance.
Japan's car-sharing market is the world's largest in terms of vehicle count
Japan's car-sharing market exceeded 20 billion yen in 2015, and is expected to reach 30 billion yen in 2020. However, compared with the existing mobile travel service market, the market size of taxis is 1.6 trillion yen and the market size of rental cars is 600 billion yen, and the market size of Japanese shared cars is one to two orders of magnitude smaller.
Compared with other countries, Japan's car-sharing market expanded rapidly after 2010. In March 2016, the number of cars reached nearly 20,000, and the number of members also increased to 850,000. In terms of the number of cars, as a single country, Japan is the country with the largest market size in the world.
Japan's car-sharing market size
compared with other countries -
compared with other countries
compared with other countries
Among European countries, Germany has the largest market size, followed by the United Kingdom and France. In addition, if you look at the per capita population, Switzerland surpasses Germany. If you also look at Japan from the national scale, then Japan's per capita population penetration rate is only less than half of that of Germany or Switzerland.
In Germany, especially after 2012, through the revision of the law, free-mobile services have been rapidly launched, and the number of members of shared cars has increased rapidly. Generally speaking, compared with the outlet type (number of members of unit vehicles: 40 to 50 per vehicle), the free-mobile type (number of members of unit vehicles: 120 to 130 per vehicle) will have three times more members. In other words, if the number of members of the unit vehicle does not increase, the free-flow service model will not be established.
In Japan, the biggest reason why free-mobile services are not popular is that operators are obliged to ensure parking spaces twice the number of cars. If you look at prefecture , Tokyo ranks first in terms of number of cars, Osaka prefecture is closely behind. In terms of popularity, Tokyo and Osaka Prefecture are also higher. Tokyo's penetration rate even surpasses that of Switzerland (a developed car-sharing country in Europe).
United States Prefectures Unit Population Car Popularity rate
Reasons for the popularity of shared cars in Japan
The industry structure of shared cars in Japan can be roughly divided into PK24 (Times Car Rental), operators who operate parking lots (coin parking lots) businesses such as Mitsui Repark, and operators who regard shared cars as extension lines of car rental business like Olix Automobile Company. Recently, the situation has formed that the car rental company is the only one.
Even from a global perspective, the times are the world's largest car-sharing operator in terms of the number of cars (17,000). As a company that operates only in Japan, Times Car Rental has grown into an enterprise of this scale. Its background is the geographical feature of Japan, that is, the population is relatively concentrated in cities with higher population density and Japan's unique road traffic administrative policy.
According to the revision of the Road Traffic Law in 2006, due to the strengthening of the management of road parking and the rapid expansion of coin-operated parking business, Times Rental, which grew up with the networking of coin-operated parking as its main business, has been ahead of other companies in the guarantee of "offlines (parking lots), parking lot management, and the construction and application of "unique information technology" called TONIC (Times Online Network Information Center).By using these business bases, Times Car Rental has achieved success in the all-round development of its car-sharing business (according to the published results, Times Car Rental's car-sharing business achieved a black-toned transformation in 2014. Compared with other companies that had to sign contracts with parking lots, Times Car Rental has huge advantages in cost structure).
German auto manufacturers' services are rapidly expanding
However, in the car-sharing market, in Europe, Germany, the largest in Germany, Flinkster, a subsidiary of Deutsche Bahn, has been ranked first in the number of cars until around 2015. However, in the past two years, service operators of complete vehicle manufacturers such as Daimler's Car2Go and DriveNow, a subsidiary of BMW , have also been rapidly increasing the number of cars.
European vehicle manufacturers such as Daimler have several purposes to enter the shared car industry. In Europe (especially in Germany), the sales price of cars is rising faster than in Japan, and the phenomenon of being young people as the center and staying away from cars is becoming increasingly serious. Therefore, letting young people keep in touch with cars in the short term and let them buy private cars in the future is highly purposeful as part of the marketing strategy.
Of course, in the medium and long term, there is still the purpose of attracting people who do not retain cars. Originally, the investment scale in the shared car industry was not as large as the existing investment in technology development or factory investment. Therefore, in terms of risk transfer in existing industries and cultivating new industries, the purpose of trying is also strong.
The shared car market and directionality of development
So far, we have analyzed the current situation and latest developments of the shared car industry. On this basis, we will finally consider the directionality of developing shared car. Specifically, we can give the following five directions: (1) popularization of free-flow types, (2) electric vehicles (EV)ization, (3) miniaturization of automobiles (using low-speed cars LSV: Low Speed Vehicle), (4) on-demand (using autonomous driving technology), and (5) PtoP (point-to-point).
(1) Popularization of free flow
, especially in Japan, due to further relaxation of policies, free flow services will be popularized. If the penetration rate per unit population rises to the same level as in Germany, the service area will be expanded to areas with a population density of about 1,000 people/km², which is equivalent to a local city where shared cars are beginning to popularize.
(2) Electric Vehicle (EV)
As a development direction different from the current service heightening, various cities in Europe have taken restrictive measures on internal combustion engine vehicles entering the city center. Taking this opportunity, the number of shared cars using electric vehicles is increasing. Even from the perspective of operation, considering subsidies for electric vehicles, sharing cars using electric vehicles is more beneficial in terms of operating costs.
(3) Miniaturization of cars (using low-speed cars)
When major automobile manufacturers such as Toyota and Nissan Motors try to import car-sharing services, they also regard using low-speed cars as a development direction. From the perspective of profit structure, by using small electric low-speed cars, electricity bills, vehicle depreciation fees and parking fees can be reduced, and even if the operating rate does not increase significantly, operators may ensure profitability.
Even if the parking fee in the city center is 40,000 to 50,000 yen per month, as long as the operating rate exceeds 10%, it is possible to make a profit and can also reduce the risk of setting up outlets. However, the operating rate at the profit and loss difference point without parking fees is 5%~6%, which is the same as the profit and loss difference point of using ordinary vehicles. The threshold for operators to increase service outlets in the city center will be lowered, but if the service area is to be expanded to areas outside the city center, then using low-speed autonomous driving will be almost ineffective.
(4) On-demand (using autonomous driving technology)
In current shared cars, whether it is a outlet type or a free flow type, users move to the parking place as a prerequisite. On-demand type allows the car to drive to the place where the user wants to ride, and to drive the car back to the designated location from where the user gets off.In some areas, on-demand services for manned driving have begun to be introduced. From a cost-based perspective, if autonomous driving technology is used, on-demand services will have a greater impact on shared cars.
For users, the business circle refers to the range of the distance to the station within 5 minutes of hiking. If it is achieved on demand, the business circle may be expanded to a range of about 30 minutes of hiking from the station.
If a car that is unmanned back is driving at a low speed (about 30km/h), then even if the price of self-driving cars rises to about twice the price of basic cars (1.5 million yen), in sparsely populated areas with a population density of 15~20 people/km², as a service, shared cars may still be established. Technically, after the user rides, the car needs to have a higher technical completion degree equivalent to fully driving the "LEVEL5". However, if the user only needs to use autonomous driving technology when picking up and dropping off the vehicle before and after the vehicle and driving back to the vehicle, the technical threshold will be lowered. At the same time, it can be considered that this is an extended online service for unmanned valet parking services.
(5) PtoP-based
As the last development direction, let us consider the evolution to the PtoP-type business model. In the PtoP-type, the operators of shared car do not retain cars, but match individual cars and users. PtoP-type shared cars can be divided into two forms: one is that the owner of the car lends the private car when it is not used, and the other is that the owner purchases the car as an integral part of his own assets and registers it on the PtoP service platform.
Among them, the form of taking into account private use is difficult to accept in Japan, but there is a possibility of popularity overseas (especially in Europe and the United States). In fact, Tesla companies in the United States are starting to carry out car sharing services by using individually owned cars.
If you want to know more about intelligent mobile travel, see here -
The future unmanned driving and transportation services
Now, the automotive industry is in a period of huge change that is once in a century. How will the world's automobile industry develop in the future? Traction is a driverless and next-generation mobile service. The face of the automobile industry will undergo a huge change if driverless driving is integrated with next-generation mobile services such as shared cars and shared carpooling. However, this change is not just about the change in the way the car's value is converted from "all" to "use". The current business model may also be adjusted by developing and producing cars.
Based on some prerequisites, it is not easy to predict the development of the automobile industry in 2030 and describe the future development of the automobile industry. This book will focus on driverless technology and next-generation mobile services, depicting the popularization of driverless cars and its impact on existing businesses.
In this book, we will give full play to the organizational capabilities of Ritte Management Consulting Co., Ltd., examine the prerequisites of various countries in various aspects, and, on the basis of taking into account the differences between countries, strive to make the content rich and depict the popularization process of unmanned driving and mobile travel services in as detailed as possible. Then, based on the evaluation of the impact of the popularization process on the existing automobile industry, we will propose suggestions on how to deal with this change.
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