On August 1, 2022, with the convening of the second half of the work conference of Hong Kong 222, the main theme of the 2022 real estate market has also been settled.
The main theme of the real estate market in the second half of 2022 is "relief for real estate companies" and "continue to increase personal mortgage loans"
Alleviate the difficulties of real estate companies?
What kind of dilemma are real estate companies facing?
1. The property market is sluggish, and there is no significant increase in house transaction volume.
2. Real estate companies have low sales amount and profits, lack of funds for housing subsidies, and many difficulties in engineering construction and housing subsidies.
3. Home buyers lack purchasing power and lack confidence in buying a property.
From a micro perspective, the fundamental reason for poor performance in the real estate market is not that the policies are not strong, but that real estate companies are not strong.
home purchase subsidies, provident fund loan amount is increased, the favorable benefits of talent housing purchases are superimposed, and the relaxation of housing purchase policies...
The positive warm wind that lasted for half a year cannot actually bring about the sales growth of real estate companies.
The real estate company's house cannot be sold, which only means that the real estate company is really not good. How can
make real estate companies more powerful?
can only alleviate the difficulties of real estate companies first.
html The People's Bank of China's second half of 2022 held on August 1 clearly mentioned four policy directions, and it is these four policy directions that gave the main theme of the second half of the real estate market in 2022 - alleviating the difficulties of real estate companies and continuing to increase personal mortgage loans.
First, let’s summarize and recall the core content of the meeting.
core content 1: Safely resolve risks in key areas
Interpretation: As a pillar industry, its upstream and downstream industrial chains involve dozens of industries such as finance, construction, decoration, furniture and home appliances.
Among them, the key areas are the fields of finance and construction.
resolves risks in key areas, mainly referring to the financial and real estate supply chains.
first talk about the risks in the financial field.
The real estate industry is a heavy asset , a capital-intensive industry. Once a developer’s capital chain has problems, the property will be shut down at a low level and will be unfinished.
and unfinished will cause home buyers to cut off their supply . After the supply is cut off, the home buyers' houses will be auctioned by the forensic auction. In the end, the home buyers will lose money and the non-performing assets of the bank continue to increase. If the "severe tail-severe supply-severe auction-unfinished again-severe supply-severe auction-repeated again" goes on, a vicious cycle will arise.
Let’s talk about the risks in the supply chain field.
cannot be sold, the developer will not be able to recover the money or make no profits, and the relevant funds of the property suppliers cannot be paid. Suppliers with strong strength will bear it. Suppliers with poor strength will often force developers to pay by shutting down work and lawsuits to preserve property. The developer, who was already short of money, suddenly entered a vicious cycle of "unable to pay suppliers' funds - property suspension - home buyers urged to resume work - suppliers' arrears increased - property continued to suspend work".
developers can only deal with the lawsuit while worrying about the home buyer's urging project progress.
safely resolves risks in key areas to crack and prevent two vicious cycles.
is also the basis for "steadly resolving risks in key areas, which determines that "preventing risks in small and medium-sized banks first".
core content 2: Preventing and resolving risks in small and medium-sized banks
Interpretation: The high non-performing loan rate of small and medium-sized banks is a flaw. The word "prevention" has given a very clear direction - strictly control the scale of personal mortgage business, developer development loans and loan issuance qualification review.
It is expected that many small and medium-sized banks will gradually reduce the proportion of personal housing loans business.
.
Core content 3: implement differentiated housing credit policies according to cities
Interpretation: Currently, the total amount of provident fund loans in more than 100 cities is constantly increasing, and even the total amount of provident fund loans in more than 10 cities can cover the total house payment.
This is the concrete manifestation of the housing credit policy for high-quality home buyers.
is expected to be further looser differentiated housing credit policies in the short term.
core content 4: Keep the financing channels such as real estate credit and bonds stable, and accelerate the exploration of new real estate development models
Interpretation: The real estate industry is an asset-intensive and capital-intensive industry. Once there is a problem with the "financing path", the work will be suspended at the worst and the worst will be unfinished. In addition to allowing real estate companies to successfully achieve the goal of guaranteeing and subsidizing housing, there is another goal to protect the "financing path" - not to give any opportunities to the eye of the real estate market and short-selling institutions of real estate companies.
