Source of this article: Times Weekly Author: Alimire
After experiencing the first wave of rise in September, the oil price hovering at a high level is likely to be lowered again this time.
:00 on September 21, 24:00, the National Development and Reform Commission will open a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window. According to Zhuochuang Information , as of September 16, on the seventh working day of this round of refined oil price adjustment cycle, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was -6.41%, and the cumulative oil price fell by about 270 yuan/ton, which was converted to a decline of about 0.21-0.23 yuan/liter. This means that domestic refined oil prices may usher in the "seventh decline" this year.
According to this adjustment range, car owners can save about 10 yuan by filling a box of 50 liters of fuel tanks; in terms of fuel consumption, taking private cars with a monthly running of 2,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers as an example, the fuel consumption cost will be reduced by about 34 yuan.
is getting closer and closer to the new round of oil price adjustment. The current expected decline in oil prices has exceeded the standard red line of 50 yuan/ton of 220 yuan. The current expected decline in oil prices has entered the statistical range of sharp drops. If the oil price does not fall, it will take the average daily increase of more than 75 yuan/ton during the remaining 3 working days.
Times Weekly reporter learned that since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 17 rounds of adjustments, with a total of "11 ups and 6 downs". Although it had just achieved "five consecutive declines" some time ago, due to the sharp rise in oil prices in the first half of this year, after the rise and fall of oil prices, the cumulative increase of gasoline by 1,595 yuan/ton and diesel by 1,535 yuan/ton this year.
According to the calculation of liters, No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel rose by 1.23 yuan, 1.33 yuan and 1.30 yuan respectively. Compared with the beginning of the year, based on the capacity of the 50L of the gas tank of a general household car, adding a box of No. 95 gasoline would cost about 61.5 yuan more than the beginning of the year.
Source: TuChong Creative
In fact, the main basis for the adjustment of domestic refined oil is the rate of change obtained by comparing the weighted average price of international crude oil prices over 10 working days with the weighted average price of international crude oil prices in the previous cycle. The main reason for the decline in domestic refined oil prices in this round is that international oil prices have continued to fluctuate at low levels recently.
As of the close of September 16, the futures price of light crude oil (hereinafter referred to as "US oil") delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in October rose 0.01% to US$85.11 per barrel, down 1.9% this week. The futures price of London Brent crude oil (hereinafter referred to as "Brent Oil") for delivery in November rose 0.56% to $91.35 per barrel, down 1.6% this week. It is understood that the settlement prices of US oil and Brent oil have both fallen for two consecutive weeks.
Longzhong Information Crude oil industry analyst Li Yan told Times Weekly reporters that the core factor of the decline in oil prices in recent times is that under the background of Federal Reserve hike rate , the market's concerns about the global economic outlook continue, dragging down crude oil demand expectations.
Li Yan said that in recent times, the US dollar index has risen to its highs in recent years and remained high. Fed has significantly raised interest rates and the possibility of demand imbalance has continued to heat up, and people's concerns about economic recession have also "risen", and these factors have put pressure on crude oil prices. This also led to oil prices fluctuating at low levels, and Brent oil prices have fallen from the high of US$125 per barrel in June to the current low of US$91.35.
However, Times Weekly reporters noticed that despite rising concerns about recession, oil demand will continue to grow. On September 13, local time, OPEC stated in its monthly report that global oil demand is expected to increase by 3.1 million barrels per day in 2022 and 2.7 million barrels per day in 2023, maintaining the forecast of strong growth in global oil demand unchanged.
In addition, on September 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report, slightly lowering its expectations for global oil demand growth this year by about 110,000 barrels per day. However, the IEA expects global oil consumption to increase by 2 million barrels per day to 99.7 million barrels per day this year, and demand will continue to increase by 2.1 million barrels per day to 101.8 million barrels per day in 2023. This shows that despite rising recession concerns, oil demand will continue to grow this year and next two years.
From the supply side, the supply tightness has temporarily eased. According to OPEC's monthly report, Saudi Arabia's increased production by 236,000 barrels per day to 11.05 million barrels per day in August, exceeding 11 million barrels per day for the first time in two years, the highest level since April 2020.Judging from the data over the past few decades, Saudi Arabia's production rarely reaches 11 million barrels per day.
Echoes this, the IEA monthly report also shows that global oil production has risen for the third consecutive month, increasing by 790,000 barrels per day to 101.3 million barrels per day in August. Data shows that Russia's oil exports increased by 220,000 barrels per day in August to 7.6 million barrels per day, but it still fell by 390,000 barrels per day from the level before the Russian-Ukraine conflict.
IEA expects the crude oil market to oversupply in the second half of this year and will be basically balanced in 2023.
Against this background, looking forward to the fourth quarter of this year, what is the trend of crude oil prices? Li Yan analyzed that in the short term, crude oil may maintain a high volatility, medium- and long-term negative risks cannot be ignored, and oil prices still have room for upward.
"A very critical point in the fourth quarter is whether the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be alleviated. Seeing that winter is approaching, Europe has shortage of energy, coupled with the surge in natural gas prices, the energy supply problem is relatively anxious, and there are many uncertain factors in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, so the crude oil market price will be at a high level of US$90-110 per barrel," said Li Yan.
. Regarding domestic refined oil prices, Li Yan believes that because there is no absolute correspondence between domestic oil prices and international oil prices, many factors will have an impact on oil prices. Therefore, the uncertainty of domestic oil prices in the fourth quarter is high. However, in the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, at present, the potential risk of domestic oil prices may be greater.
