html In the foreign exchange market on the 328th, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to fall, and the lowest points of the onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar spot exchange rate fell below 7.25, and the former even set a new low since 2008.
But because of a message posted by the official website of the People's Bank of China , the RMB exchange rate turned to rising. As of 19:00 on the 28th, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar have returned to the 7.23 line.
According to the news released by the central bank , on September 27, the National Foreign Exchange Market Self-Discipline Mechanism Video Conference was held. The meeting analyzed the recent operation of the foreign exchange market and deployed relevant work to strengthen self-discipline management.
According to China News Service national direct train, the foreign exchange market self-discipline mechanism was established under the guidance of the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and this video conference was also seen by the market as the central bank's call out to the outside world on the recent depreciation of the RMB.
The foreign exchange market is of great importance, and maintaining stability is the first priority
htmlThe National Foreign Exchange Market Self-Discipline Mechanism Video Conference held on 327th made it extremely rare: "The foreign exchange market is of great importance, maintaining stability is the first priority." Such a statement has not appeared in previous working meetings and video conferences of the mechanism.
meeting emphasized that the RMB exchange rate has a solid foundation for maintaining basic stability. Compared with many economies facing the risk of stagflation, China's economy continues to recover and develop in general, the price level is basically stable, and the trade surplus is expected to remain high. As the macro-policy effect appears, the basic economic situation will be more solid.
At the same time, the current RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is suitable for China's national conditions and can give full play to the role of the "two hands" of the market and the government. It has withstood the test of multiple rounds of external shocks in history. The People's Bank of China has accumulated rich response experience and can effectively manage market expectations.
Why is the stability of the foreign exchange market so important? From the perspective of the main indicators reflecting the operation of the foreign exchange market, it includes supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, cross-border capital flows, exchange rate fluctuations, etc. Once these indicators undergo irrational and significant changes, they will have a negative impact on the operation of the entire country's financial system.
Recalling the Asian financial crisis in 1997, one of the reasons for its outbreak was the violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. When talking about the enlightenment left by the Asian financial crisis, Wang Yiming, deputy chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center and former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that it is necessary to improve the macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows and improve the ability of counter-cyclical regulation of cross-border capital flows.
In addition, we must persist in deepening financial system reform, improve the macro-prudential management framework, strengthen supervision of financial institutions, improve the financial security network, and enhance the financial system's ability to resist external shocks.
Don’t bet on the rise and fall of the RMB. If you bet on a long time, you will lose
The meeting said that the current foreign exchange market is generally standardized and orderly, but there are also a few companies following the trend of "exchange speculation" and financial institutions doing illegal operations. We should strengthen guidance and correction. It must be recognized that the exchange rate point is inaccurate, and two-way fluctuation is the norm. Don’t bet on the unilateral appreciation or depreciation of the RMB exchange rate. If you bet for a long time, you will lose.
Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, , previously stated that the long-term trend of the RMB exchange rate is clear, and the world's recognition of the RMB will continue to increase in the future. In the short term, two-way fluctuations in the RMB are a normal state, and there will be no " unilateral market ", but the points are not accurate, "Don't bet on points."
"Reasonable and balanced, basic stability are what we like, and we also have the strength to support it. I don't think anything will happen, and I will not allow it to happen." Liu Guoqiang said.
Still remember that in October 2018, Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Director of the State Council's Foreign Exchange, had already spoken: "For those forces trying to short the RMB, we have fought against each other a few years ago, and we are very familiar with each other. I think we should still remember them all."
" We have the foundation, ability and confidence to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level. "Pan Gongsheng said.
At that time, Pan Gongsheng mentioned that in the process of responding to exchange rate and foreign exchange market fluctuations in recent years, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have accumulated rich experience and policy tools, and taken necessary and targeted measures according to changes in the situation. "We have the foundation, ability and confidence to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level. "
Chief economist and head of research department of JLL Greater China, Pang Ming said that in the next step, if the RMB exchange rate continues to deviate from the US dollar index, and experiences too fast and excessive depreciation, the central bank and other relevant departments can further take effective measures to make countercyclical adjustments when necessary. In addition to considering continuing to lower the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio and raising the forward foreign exchange risk reserve ratio, countercyclical adjustment factors can also be introduced to guide Intermediate quotations, strengthening the management of cross-border capital liquidity and financial account management, increasing issuance of offshore market central bills, and regulating offshore RMB liquidity.
resolutely curbs the ups and downs of exchange rates
meeting put forward clear requirements, and member units of the self-discipline mechanism should consciously maintain the basic stability of the foreign exchange market and resolutely curb the ups and downs of exchange rates.
Specifically, quotation banks should effectively maintain the authority of RMB exchange rate intermediate price ; banks should We should conduct self-operated transactions reasonably based on the principle of risk neutral to provide real liquidity to the market; member units should further strengthen publicity and guidance on risk neutrality of enterprises and financial institutions, and further improve the service level of helping enterprises avoid risks; relevant departments should strengthen supervision, management and monitoring and analysis, strengthen the expectation management of , and curb speculation.
Pang Ming said, "The quotation bank must effectively maintain the authority of the RMB exchange rate mid-price", which means that the quotation bank must start from the discipline of obeying policy-oriented and maintain market stability. From a high degree of starting from a comprehensive understanding and accurate grasp of the intermediate price formation mechanism and future trend.
In addition, according to the above requirements, banks must also adhere to the exchange rate risk management principle with "preservation of value" rather than "adding value", and effectively transform from traditional directional self-operated transactions to risk-neutral capital intermediary transactions, strengthen management measures in foreign exchange business investment strategies, investment directions, risk control, etc., which can neither help enterprises "contest foreign exchange", nor do they "contest foreign exchange" themselves, and jointly build a professional and standardized foreign exchange market. (Author: Xia Bin)
