According to foreign media reports, on September 22, 2022, Vice Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Conference Medvedev posted a message through social media that the Russian government has passed relevant resolutions and will use all equipment including strategic/tactical nuclear weapons , etc. to defend against "the territory of the new membership of the Russian Federation". After the news was released, the lingering nuclear war during the Cold War, clouds once again shrouded the European sky, causing high concerns from all parties.
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■ Vice Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Conference, Medvedev announced to the outside world that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons to defend the "new territory".
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia has repeatedly shown its "nuclear muscles" to the outside world. As early as the end of April, the war between Russia and Ukraine was in a stalemate and was approaching victory day. Western media clamored that Russia would use tactical nuclear weapon to accelerate the combat process. Although this terrible prediction did not come true, with the Ukrainian army succeeding in the counterattack after the fall, Russia's situation became increasingly unfavorable. Putin announced some mobilization and military production entered a wartime state. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered a new stage. Medvedev's statement may no longer be understood as a simple verbal threat. As the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to deteriorate, the possibility of the Russian army using the nuclear stick is increasing. So, how much inventory is there in Russia’s nuclear arsenal? How powerful is it?
Satan's Hammer: Strategic Nuclear Weapons
Nuclear Weapons can be divided into two types according to their uses: strategic nuclear weapons and tactical nuclear weapons. Strategic nuclear weapons are mainly used to strike enemy strategic goals, such as political and economic centers (capitals), large and medium-sized cities with a large population, military and industrial bases, nuclear weapons storage facilities, launch positions and transportation hubs. Strategic nuclear weapons usually exist in the form of long-range ballistic missiles, with ranges ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of kilometers, and their explosion power ranges from tens of thousands to millions of tons of TNT equivalent . It has significant characteristics such as long range, large load, strong power and extensive collateral damage. A strategic missile carrying a sub-guided nuclear warhead is enough to destroy a small country. Even a big country like the United States will be difficult to escape the attacks of dozens or even hundreds of nuclear missiles, .
■ The Soviet-made SS-18 "Satan" intercontinental ballistic missile stored in an open-air museum.
During the Cold War, in order to fight against the United States, the former Soviet Union established the world's largest nuclear arsenal. At its peak in 1988, it had as many as 45,000 nuclear warheads, 13,000 more than the second-ranked United States to ensure mutual destruction in the comprehensive nuclear war. After the end of the Cold War, tens of thousands of nuclear warheads seemed to be overwhelming for the strategic deterrence of both Russia and the United States, and began to reduce the destruction of nuclear weapons in large quantities, but until now, Russia's nuclear arsenal is still the world's largest. According to the website of the US "Atomic Energy Scientist Bulletin", as of the beginning of 2021, Russia maintained a total of 6,257 strategic/tactical nuclear warheads, of which 1,600 strategic nuclear warheads were in active service deployment, another 985 strategic nuclear warheads were in storage, and 1,760 retired nuclear warheads were in a state of destruction, but they still have combat capabilities.
■ The "Popular" M-type intercontinental ballistic missile is being advanced by solid fuel rockets and has a range of up to 11,000 kilometers.
In view of the sharp deterioration of relations between Russia and the West in recent years and the harsh geostrategic environment, Russian military and political leaders, led by President Putin, Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of Staff Gerasimov , regard nuclear weapons as the strategic cornerstone of national security. Even in the face of shortage of military expenditure, they still give priority to ensuring the development of strategic nuclear forces and promote the research and development of new ballistic missiles and strategic nuclear submarine . Up to now, Russia's strategic nuclear weapons are mainly composed of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles . The Russian Strategic Rocket Force currently has at least 319 fixed or mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles in service, and the main models include "Satan", " Poplar ", "Yars", " Salmat ", etc. Russian Navy is currently equipped with 8 Delta III/IV nuclear submarines and 5 North Wind God-class nuclear submarines, equipped with 208 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and there are two models RSM-54 and RSM-56 "Brava". In the above-mentioned missile , "Sarmat" is regarded by the Russian army as a new frontier force against the West.
■ The latest North Wind Class ballistic missile nuclear submarine of the Russian Navy, equipped with 16 RSM-56 "Brava" submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
"Sarmat" intercontinental ballistic missile was jointly developed by Markyev National Missile Center, Grushko Power Machinery Power Manufacturing and Science Production Consortium, and Moscow Machinery Manufacturing and Science Production Consortium. It has a length of 35.5 meters and a diameter of 3 meters. It is boosted by a liquid-fuel rocket engine. Its take-off weight is as high as 208.1 tons (178 tons of liquid fuel), a payload of 10 tons, and can carry 10 to 15 sub-guided nuclear warheads (maximum single-engine equivalent of 750,000 tons TNT). In the future, it can also be equipped with a "pioneer" hypersonic gliding cruise warhead under development, with a maximum range of 18,000 kilometers and a circular probability error of 150 to 200 meters (external estimate). As the successor to replace the SS-18 series intercontinental ballistic missile, "Salmat" uses a liquid-fuel rocket engine with high specific impulse and high thrust in order to pursue long-range and high damage capabilities. Russian Ministry of Defense claims that "Sarmat" is the most powerful and farthest-range intercontinental ballistic missile in the world today. Poroskoon, deputy commander of the Russian Strategic Rocket Force, revealed in an interview with the media in May this year that "Sarmat" will enter combat duty state by the end of this year.
■On April 20, 2022, the first flight of the "Sarmat" intercontinental ballistic missile at the Pleshetsk national test launch site in Arkhangels Prefecture, Russia was successful.
Bear's Claw: Tactical Nuclear Weapon
Tactical Nuclear Weapons are mainly used in battlefield operations and implement tactical nuclear strikes against enemy military targets. They are also known as theater nuclear weapons or non-strategic nuclear weapons. Tactical nuclear weapons strikes have a wide range of targets, such as enemy missile launch positions, important command agencies, surface ships clusters, military airports , troop assembly sites, etc. The range of tactical nuclear weapons is generally between dozens and hundreds of kilometers. In order to reduce the collateral damage to their own troops, the explosive power of tactical nuclear weapons is between thousands of tons and tens of thousands of tons of TNT equivalents. They are of small size, light weight, and strong mobility, and are also extremely deterrent.
■ During the Cold War, the photo of the US military's "Atom Anne" nuclear cannon was fired, a typical tactical nuclear weapon.
The former Soviet Union called tactical nuclear weapons a battle tactical nuclear weapon, and developed a limited nuclear war theory in the late Cold War. In offensive operations against Western Europe , the assault of tactical nuclear weapons will be used to open channels for ground troops. Based on this purpose, up to 16,000 tactical nuclear warheads were maintained at its peak. After the Cold War, Russia cut its tactical nuclear warheads in large numbers. According to the website of the US "Atomic Energy Scientist Bulletin" and the Stockholm International Peace Institute in Sweden, the Russian army currently has 1,830 to 1,912 tactical nuclear warheads. According to data, the Russian army's tactical nuclear warheads have not been actually deployed, but can be taken out of the warehouse within a few hours and combined with the weapon platform to enter a combat state. The Russian army's tactical nuclear warheads are mainly carried by various tactical missiles of the Army, Navy and Air Force, such as the Army's "Iskander" and "Dound" tactical ballistics, and the Aerospace Force's Kh-55 air-launched cruise missiles.
■The Russian-equipped "Iskander" tactical ballistic missile can be equipped with nuclear warheads to perform tactical nuclear strike missions.
In recent years, Russia has given up pursuing quantity in the development of tactical nuclear weapons, paid more attention to quality, and tried to improve tactical nuclear deterrence capabilities with limited budget expenditure.First, promote hypersonicity and improve penetration and strike capabilities. Typical equipment in this regard is the "Dagger" air-fired hypersonic missile that has been used in actual combat in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Its maximum flight speed is Mach 10 and its maximum range is 2,000 kilometers. It is combined with the nuclear/normal dual-purpose warhead, and the Russian army's ability to "break through all air defense and anti-missile systems in service" and becomes a trump card in Russia's tactical nuclear weapons field.
■The "dagger" hypersonic missile unveiled on the Ukrainian battlefield has an overall performance in line with the expectations of the Russian army and can carry nuclear warheads.
Secondly, accelerate the promotion of updates and iterations and scale expansion, and improve maneuverable saturation strike capabilities. For example, the "Iskander" K land-based tactical missile system, which has been equipped in 2017, has increased its maximum range from 500 kilometers to 2,500 kilometers, enhancing the strike range of targets within the enemy's depth range.
■Russian "Iskander" K land-based cruise missile, with a range of up to 2500 kilometers.
Finally, an unmanned combat system was introduced to improve survival and penetration capabilities. On July 8, 2022, the Russian Northern Fleet received an improved Oscar-class nuclear submarine , which can carry 6 "Poseidon" nuclear torpedo . This is a nuclear-powered submarine, jointly developed by the Central Design Bureau of the "Ruby" Marine Engineering and the "Malachite" St. Petersburg Marine Machinery Manufacturing Bureau. It has a total length of 24 meters, a diameter of 1.6 meters, and an underwater displacement of 40 tons. It is equipped with a large-diameter impeller, a horizontal and vertical tail rudder. The power system uses a small nuclear reactor with small size, fast starting speed and high thrust-weight ratio. The diving depth exceeds 1,000 meters. Thanks to the supercavitation technology, the maximum underwater speed can reach 100 knots, and it can carry a nuclear warhead of 2 million tons equivalent. The above-mentioned technical elements mean that none of the existing Western anti-submarine systems can effectively counter the situation. In addition to intelligence reconnaissance and underwater scientific research, the "Poseidon" nuclear torpedo can also perform tasks such as attacking enemy large and medium-sized surface ships, naval bases, and important coastal areas, which can pose a fatal threat to Western naval and naval bases.
■ Sectional view of the Russian "Poseidon" nuclear torpedo, which can carry 2 million tons of equivalent nuclear warheads.
Destruction spell: Nuclear combat theory
After the collapse of the Soviet Union , Russia has continuously revised its nuclear combat theory, setting a new nuclear threshold for national security. In 1993, the Russian Federation made it clear at the legal level that it had given up its commitment not to use nuclear weapons first. Four years later, the Russian government stipulated in the newly formulated concept of national security that the Russian Federation will take the lead in using nuclear weapons to strike invading enemies when the country's survival is threatened. In 2000, in the military doctrine approved by the Russian government, the scope of application of nuclear strike was extended to the level of allies, and pointed out that if the enemy uses conventional weapons to conduct a large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, the Russian army can use nuclear weapons to launch a counterattack.
■Every year's Moscow Red Square Victory Day parade is the finale of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
In June 2020, in the "Basic Policy on Nuclear Containment of the Russian Federation" approved by President Putin, four situations of the use of nuclear weapons were further clarified: learned reliable information on launching ballistic missiles to the Russian Federation and (or) allies; the enemy used nuclear weapons or other types of large-scale destruction weapons to the Russian Federation and (or) allies; the enemy destroyed important national facilities or military facilities related to Russia's nuclear counterattack capabilities; the enemy used conventional weapons to attack Russia and posed a threat to the survival of the country. Looking at the development of the Russian nuclear strategy/nuclear deterrence guidance outline in the 30 years since the Cold War, it can be seen that Russia's initiative in using nuclear weapons is increasing. Even if the opponent does not use nuclear weapons, as long as Moscow determines that national security and survival are threatened, it is possible to take precedence with nuclear weapons.
■In December 2020, during the strategic nuclear force exercise, the Russian Navy's strategic nuclear submarines fired four "Brava" missiles in a row.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been generally defined by the outside world as Russia's "war of national destiny". Russia cannot lose, nor can it afford to lose. Especially since this conflict has evolved into a head-on confrontation between Russia and the Western world led by the United States, Russia cannot easily compromise. If the situation develops to an extremely bad situation against Russia, it is not ruled out that the nuclear button in the Kremlin will be pressed.
Conclusion
Although Russia is well aware of the fact that nuclear war cannot be fought and there is no real winner, considering the poor battlefield situation and the increasingly unfavorable international environment, the future development of "special military operations" may trigger the bottom line of Russia's use of nuclear weapons. Although the first players to show their trump card often cannot see the final victory, for Russia, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has not taken any advantage in its long-term game with Western countries. Therefore, when there is no way to retreat, it is better to give it a try. Perhaps by then, there will be a situation where you will die.
■For Putin, whether to use nuclear weapons has become a very realistic decision-making option.
