▲Putin delivered a TV speech
Since Russian President Putin delivered a TV speech on the Donbass issue, the global attention has once again focused on Russia and Ukraine. Especially from the series of unconventional information released by Putin, it has really made the outside world feel that Russia is very close to the complete outbreak. Just the day after Putin's TV speech, Vice Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Conference Medvedev posted a message through social media that Russia has decided to use any Russian weapon, including strategic nuclear weapons and new weapons, to defend against newly added territory .
The purpose of this statement is very clear, which is to achieve the previous day's Russian president mentioned in his statement "We will support the decision made by citizens of relevant regions in the referendum" . According to relevant media reports, the self-established "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic" officially announced to the outside world that a referendum will be held on September 23 to 27 on the issue of joining the Russian Federation. At the same time, the Chief Executive of Zaporozeh , Balitsky, and Sardo, the head of the administrative agency of Khlsson, also announced the specific time of the referendum.
▲Four states near the Russian border plan a referendum
. According to the latest survey data released by the Russian investigation agency INSOMAR, in the four states that are related to the referendum, more than 60% of the respondents prepared and planned to participate in the referendum, , especially Donetsk and Lugansk , more than 80% of the respondents are preparing to participate in the referendum . As for the referendum results, preliminary survey data showed that the approval rating was significantly superior. It can be seen that as long as these four states conduct a referendum as planned, the basic results of will be less than those of Crimea in 2014, and will be separated from Ukrainian and will be added to in Russia.
However, although the result has not been determined, the statements of Western countries are very clear - they refuse to recognize the referendum results. At this time, if Russia wants to defend the referendum results, it must show a strong attitude, and even have enough means to achieve this goal. But there is a bigger problem before Russia - the Russian army's actions are unfavorable, resulting in the gradual ineffectiveness of traditional military means. nuclear deterrence has become one of the few remaining trump cards in Russia at this stage.
1. Is it just a deterrent or is it ready to take action?
- The cruel reality is defeating the Russian army
▲The war situation of Russia and Ukraine is still very anxious
Since August, the Ukrainian army launched a strong counterattack in Kharkov , the situation in the entire eastern Ukraine has undergone earth-shaking changes. Although it cannot be said that this counterattack can completely determine the final direction of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, at least one thing is certain, that is, the defeat of the Russian army is by no means a "big plan" like the so-called "big plan" that was rumored before. The reality is that it is difficult for the Russian army to support this special military operation that lasted for more than half a year. There are two points that are enough to prove it.
First of all, Putin made a televised speech that part of the mobilization will be carried out in Russia. In response, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu also confirmed that Russia will recruit 300,000 reserve personnel during the implementation of the partial mobilization order. At the same time, he also said that Russia's mobilization potential is about 25 million. This is the first time that Russia has launched a mobilization order after World War II. No matter how large or how many people are involved, it is enough to prove that Russia's current military operations have been very difficult to deal with the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, or it is too much to do with . As a " polar bear " in the eyes of the outside world, even Ukraine cannot handle it. This cruel reality is really hard to accept, but this is an indisputable fact.
▲The Russian main battle tank seized by the Ukrainian army
Secondly, the Russian army's performance in this round of counterattack by the Ukrainian army was indeed shocking. In the video released by Ukraine, the Russian army discarded a large amount of equipment during the retreat, and even some of the equipment was in scale and organized to discard . This was completely the actions of the Ukraine army on the eve of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, but now the same scene happened to the Russian army.Moreover, the most shocking point is that a large number of Russian military's latest equipment was discarded intact, including the T-90M Breakthrough Type 3 tank, which is the latest main battle tank of the Russian army second only to the T-14. In addition, it also includes many advanced heavy equipment such as BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle , 2S19M2 self-propelled artillery.
For the Russian army's performance, it is not an exaggeration to describe it as "dropping the helmet and abandoning the armor". As for the performance of the Russian army in this counterattack, it can only be described as defeat. Although the Russian Ministry of Defense repeatedly stated that the retreating Russian troops will regroup in Ijium , return to the battlefield, and also increase the attack on Ukrainian infrastructure, nothing this has done can conceal the reality of the weak Russian troops. And behind this reality, the most intuitive information reflected is that the Russian side can no longer quickly end this special military operation through conventional military means. But this does not mean that Russia will give up, because this is an action that Russia cannot lose or cannot afford to lose.
2. There is no way to retreat, and deterrence will become a reality
The end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will directly determine Russia's future. Behind this seemingly exaggerated statement, it must be admitted that this has become a fact. The core reason why Russia launched this special military operation is to limit the eastward expansion of NATO to squeeze Russia's strategic space in Europe, because once Ukraine successfully joins NATO , the chain reaction triggered will completely erode all the strategic space and buffer space of Russia in Europe, and will face the US military threat from the doorstep of its home. This threat is almost the same as the "Cuban missile crisis" during the Cold War, except that the identities of the two sides were exchanged.
▲ "Cuban missile crisis" Why can't the United States bear it?
However, the United States could not tolerate it back then, and today's Russia naturally could not accept this direct threat. For this reason, must use this special military operation to warn NATO to stop its strategic deterrence against Russia , and behind this action is also a warning to the surrounding countries. From this point of view, Russia must launch military operations, and can only resolve the crisis it faces through military operations.
In addition, judging from the changes in the surrounding environment around Russia in the past six months, Russia has no way out. After the collapse of , Russia formed the "Jijian Organization", a military alliance surrounding Russia. Russia tried to strengthen control over Central Asia while stabilizing the surrounding environment in this way. But this military alliance is now falling apart. Among the six member states, has border conflicts except Russia, and the scale of the conflict is not small. The remaining two are directly facing the United States, and the remaining one is in a fence state. Both sides do not give an absolute statement. The direct reason for this sudden change in
is that Russia's extremely poor performance in this Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Before the operation was over, the surrounding areas were in chaos. Once Russia loses this special military operation, the future direction of the country can be imagined. Overall, Russia must win this action, but there is a contradiction. It is obvious that traditional military means are very difficult to achieve this goal, and at this time, if you have to win, you can only pin your hopes on non-traditional military means, which naturally includes nuclear deterrence. From this point of view, when faces the current situation of being unable to retreat, nuclear deterrence is by no means as simple as empty talk. It is absolutely possible and there is a probability that will happen.
2. nuclear war How far is it from Russia and Ukraine?
▲Russian army nuclear weapons is not a decoration
Objectively speaking, through Putin's series of statements and related dynamics of the Russian army, Russia and Ukraine are only one step away from the nuclear war. In the future, once the Ukrainian army launches armed operations in the four areas of the referendum, the Russian army will have reason and may launch an nuclear strike , but it is not easy to truly take this step.
From the point of recruiting reserves, Russia still pinned its hopes on conventional military means. tried to strengthen its armed forces while preventing the Ukrainian army from attacking more rampantly. It would be better to take the opportunity to achieve all the special military operations targets announced by Russia at the end of February . Can this be understood as that although the Russian army is ready for nuclear war, conventional military operations in a short period of time will still be the main goal of the Russian army and the main direction of action. Once Russia achieves its established goal through conscripts, the threat of nuclear war will naturally be eliminated.
Secondly, the attitudes of Western countries have also affected Russia's nuclear decision to some extent. The reason for this stalemate in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is closely related to the military aid provided by Western countries led by the United States. Russian officials brought nuclear deterrence to the table and mentioned four referendum areas in an extremely targeted manner, with the purpose of warning the United States to restrain itself in a timely manner.
▲Russian energy countermeasures have caused great losses to European countries
Faced with such a straightforward warning, the United States will not turn a blind eye to it. The European allies who are on the frontline of the nuclear strike will inevitably do their best to prevent the United States from gradually losing control. Once the West restrains its efforts to Ukraine, Russia will lose the need for a nuclear strike and there will be no possibility of a nuclear war.
In the final analysis, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is nothing more than the US manipulation of Ukraine to suppress and weaken Russia, and it is the US's desire to use Ukraine to reduce its "threat" to itself. The existence of this objective condition will lead to the United States not choosing to go all out like Russia, or even die together. After all, the United States will not fight directly because of a Ukraine, nor will it throw nuclear weapons from each other because of a Ukraine, nor will it die from the same Ukraine. Therefore, even if Russia has to use nuclear weapons in the end, it will only provide a new excuse for the United States to fully intervene and sanctions. However, if it is said that it will launch a nuclear strike against Russia, the United States does not have the courage, and there is no courage.
To sum up, Russia has been forced into a dead end, and the current nuclear deterrence is gradually moving from deterrence to reality, but is not the last moment, and it is necessary to do so. This extreme situation will never happen to .
