Although the market frequently reported delays in TSMC's 3-nanometer process production expansion, TSMC has repeatedly reiterated that everything is going according to the plan. According to supply chain news, Apple still won the first prize this time and included the first wave of production capacity. Intel and other six other heavyweight customers will be relayed in 2023 and 2024. Taiwanese consumables companies are generally optimistic. Judging from the current order situation, the products corresponding to the 3nm process will contribute more significantly in the fourth quarter, and they are cautiously optimistic about operations in the second half of the year.
As terminal demand cools down and semiconductor inventory levels continue to soar, the industrial prosperity is getting thick and fog. The outside world is concerned about whether TSMC's advanced process layout has been affected, and there are even news of delays in production expansion in the market. According to the equipment supply chain, the face-up version of N3 will be mass-produced as scheduled in the third quarter, with a monthly production capacity of about 50,000 to 60,000 pieces in the early stage. Apple is still the first customer and has two chips scheduled to be produced, which may be an M2 series processor (including iPad). The progress of the
N3E part is also quite smooth. There is a chance to be mass-produced in the second quarter of next year. New Apple phones, M2 and M3 series processors will all adopt the N3 family process tomorrow and the next year. Other major customers are also expected to introduce more cost-effective, performance and power consumption N3E processes, including Intel, will be mass-produced in the second half of next year, and major customers such as Nvidia, Supermicro, Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Broadcom are also expected to complete new chip launches in the next year and the following year.
TSMC has actively promoted the localization of the supply chain in recent years, and many Taiwanese consumables manufacturers have emerged, including Zhongsha, Jiadeng, Guangyangke, Yidai, and Filtration Energy, all successfully entered the advanced process supply chain and were continuously adopted, and the scope of cooperation has been further advanced to the 2nm era.
Take Zhongsha as an example. The company also supplies recycled chips and diamond disc products. Among them, new high-spec diamond discs are made of special treatment methods to prevent metal pollution, and have good grinding efficiency and high stability. It is combined with the same advanced chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) equipment that has invested in the same advanced chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) equipment as customers in the past few years, so it has achieved continuity and expanded adoption of large customers.
In addition, EUV (extreme ultraviolet light) micro-film technology has become the standard configuration of advanced processes, and Jiadeng's market share in EUV mask boxes reaches 70%, and will continue to benefit. Industry analysis shows that TSMC has introduced EUV technology from the 7+ process and entered the new process era. Each chip uses more and more EUV mask layers, about 12 to 14 layers, and 3 nanometers need to reach 20-24 layers. In addition, Intel and memory manufacturers have also introduced EUV processes one after another, which is expected to drive home orders to continue to have a prosperous momentum.
As for Guangyangke, the company's cooperation with TSMC's advanced process started from 7 nanometers, and replaced major U.S. and Japanese factories to become TSMC's 3-nanometer target suppliers. According to the legal person, the company's semiconductor customer revenue accounted for about 6% in the first half of the year. As the advanced process of major customers gradually increased, it is expected to increase to 8 to 10% in the fourth quarter, and further increase to 12 to 15% in the second half of next year.
Although semiconductor noises have erupted recently and the industrial prosperity has sounded the alarm, Taiwan-based semiconductor consumables are not pessimistic about the future market. They are mainly optimistic that major chip foundry customers' advantages in advanced processes are still that they have no competitors in the world, and there is no adjustment of orders yet. Especially as 3nm enters mass production in the second half of the year, many consumables companies believe that the company's 3nm products corresponding to TSMC will significantly contribute to revenue in the fourth quarter of this year, and orders for advanced process such as 5nm and 7nm remain strong.
(First image source: shutterstock)
