As the dollar index conflicted over 110, New York gold fell sharply, falling below the 1700 mark in one fell swoop. The weekly K-line continued to fall sharply after the cross star. There were four big negative lines within five weeks. In the short term, gold is not only a problem that cannot turn over, but it is even very likely to hit a new low. It is just around the corner. So, you must not trade gold now. Selling gold is also shorting , but the price of gold fluctuates repeatedly, and simply shorting also has great risks. The best way is to avoid it, wait for the bottom next year, and then buy gold at the bottom.
Shanghai Gold T+D is currently fluctuating around 380. Due to the significant decline in prices, the sales of gold commodities such as physical jewelry have risen, which coincides with the National Day holiday waiting for wedding time. Gold and physical jewelry have obvious support, but looking forward to the future, prices will fall, which has also suppressed a lot of demand. Of course, consumers want to buy at low levels for gold to appreciate, so it is not recommended to buy gold at present. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is basically completed next year, and the gold price will fall to the bottom area. It will be natural to buy gold at the bottom, so you must wait a little longer and look for a good opportunity next year.
New York Gold Month K-line has been 6 consecutive dark lines. As shown in the figure, the downward space has been opened. It is not ruled out that it will fall to around $1,600 by the end of the year. Of course, this is denominated in US dollars. If it is denominated in Euro and pounds, the price of gold will still rise, and it has not fallen much in RMB. It is mainly due to the decline in RMB exchange rate, which makes the actual price fall limited. However, in the long run, the US dollar rises very fast, and the US dollar price falls very fast. The RMB falls relatively slowly against the US dollar, but it will still fall when reflected on the gold price, although the possible decline is limited.
Asia's strongest currency this year is the Hong Kong dollar. The main reason is that the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar and implements a linked exchange rate system, so the US dollar rises and the Hong Kong dollar also rises. In other words, there is no other currency in the world that is so strong. In other words, except for the US dollar and Hong Kong dollar, both are falling, and some currencies in the Middle East are also pegged to the US dollar, but none of them are widely used as the Hong Kong dollar. The decline in gold and precious metals denominated in Hong Kong dollars is also the largest. Therefore, at the beginning of this year, the author suggested increasing his holdings of Hong Kong dollar assets and buying gold after gold bottoms out. This has been analyzed in the article at the beginning of the year.
is expected to raise interest rates until next year, the US benchmark interest rate will exceed 4%, and the US dollar still has a lot of room for growth, and the same is true for the Hong Kong dollar. The rise of the Hong Kong dollar is comprehensive, not only for the RMB, but also for the euro and pound, etc., so the profits of holding the Hong Kong dollar at the beginning of the year have been very large, and gold will continue to fall. At the end of this year, it will try 1,600 US dollars. It is not ruled out that it will fall below US$1,600. By next year, US$1,560 will be seen. Gold denominated in RMB is also very likely to fall below RMB350, and it is only more than 100 yuan at the historical low, and the price is still too high now.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will be basically completed next year. It is generally expected that the Federal Reserve will start to turn in May 2023, that is, to start cutting interest rates. In fact, US inflation will only be considered as completing the task if the Federal Reserve needs to return to 2%, and this time will be relatively long. Therefore, if US inflation returns to 2% in May next year, then the Federal Reserve may turn, otherwise the Federal Reserve will still insist on high interest rates. At that time, gold may also reach the bottom area, and the time for buying at the bottom will come. Before that, you can only wait patiently and not blindly buy at the bottom and put it on the mountainside.
