Queen Queen Funerary Heads of state gathered in London, but the UK did not invite these six countries to attend the Queen's funeral - Russia, Belarus , Syrian , Myanmar , Venezuela , Afghanistan . To put it bluntly, the relationship is bad, so I won’t invite you to come. The problem is that there is a country that is even more embarrassing, that is, , Saudi .
Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman was invited by the UK, but because someone took Khashoggi to protest against Salman attending the Queen's funeral, the UK had to temporarily inform the Saudi Crown Prince that he could not allow him to attend the Queen's funeral, which was changed to let the Prince of Saudi Arabia attend.
Salman went away from London and the Saudi crown prince was shamed. You should know that during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the then British Prime Minister Johnson also went to Saudi Arabia to beg Salman to increase oil production, and his face became so fast.
This is no surprise. Western values are to turn against you at any time and win you over at any time. I will give you some face when I need you, and I will step on you when I don’t need you. Don’t look at a simple “turned-off”, this will allow Saudi Arabia to see a lot of reality clearly.
First: Although the West is seeking Saudi Arabia now, it is also because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that has led to the rise in international oil prices. As long as international oil prices fall, the United States is likely to link the Saudi Crown Prince and Khashoggi case again in the midterm elections. At that time, Biden and campaigned, they cursed Saudi Arabia a lot. Salman knew very well who he would go closer and who he would go further in the future.
After all, although the United States cannot live without Saudi Arabia, it is not without Salman. Salman must be careful. Although there are conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Russia, from the current stage, there are still common interests. Faced with the suppression and isolation of the West, Salman can only have a good relationship with Russia to influence how the West treats him to a certain extent.
Second, although Saudi Arabia is a major oil country, it is obviously not a real power in the eyes of the West. Its world influence is also considered to be in the hands of the United States. Saudi Arabia is definitely not afraid to oppose the United States. Without the support of the United States, the Saudi royal family will face unprecedented disasters. This is what the Western world thinks of Saudi Arabia. After all, most of Saudi Arabia's weapons and equipment come from the United States, and Saudi Arabia also relies on the United States to deal with Iran .
It can be seen that if Saudi Arabia wants to take a look at the West, it must learn Türkiye and buy some Russian main equipment. Looking at Türkiye today, it can be said to be a guest of honor for Zelensky , as well as Vucic , and also Putin . NATO dare not provoke him, EU dare not talk too much, and even the United States must turn a blind eye. Saudi Arabia also has such capabilities, but it is hard to say whether the Saudi crown prince can have Erdogan's courage.
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Third, Saudi Arabia did not participate in the camp of sanctions against Russia, and obviously had shown Salman's attitude, but Saudi Arabia did not participate in sanctions against Russia and did not take the relationship further, which is not as good as Hungary . Under pressure from Europe and the United States, Hungary has to cooperate with Russia to introduce more natural gas , while Saudi Arabia has made certain compromises to the United States on the issue of oil production increase.
Saudi Arabia will also face how to play against major powers in the future, and it depends on whether Russia can win the breath. If Russia cannot end the conflict with its own will as soon as possible in the Ukrainian battlefield, even if Saudi Arabia wants to take further relations with Russia, there will be no "inducement".
From the fact that the Saudi crown prince is shamed, it can be said that the current world situation, is not that bad for Putin, it is a crisis and an opportunity. Why do you say so?
first. If Russia wins completely in Ukraine , it means that collective aid from the West will not allow Ukraine to beat Russia.Russia's world prestige will be significantly enhanced, and Russia's geopolitical influence will be rapidly increased. Whether in , Middle East , , South Caucasus , or Europe, Russia will have more and more allies, at least it will maintain closer ties with Russia.
Because Russia was counterattacked in the direction of Kharkov , conflict broke out in Nagorno-Karabakh region and Central Asia. This is the butterfly effect . Once the regional power loses its dominance, the small conflict will surface. If you lose a battle, you will be considered to have no time to take care of it. If Russia beats the West, it is easy to imagine how much geographical benefits it will get.
Second, the current EU and the United States are not a monolithic part, and France's multiple interactions with Russia have already explained this very well. France is an influential and ambitious country, unlike Britain willing to be the younger brother of the United States. Using Russia's geo-influence to hedge against US intervention in European affairs is the geo-strategy of Macron .
Macron is very clear that once European affairs are dominated by the United States rather than the European Union, the EU's international influence will decline, and France's own influence in Africa will also decline. You should know that since the United States joined forces with the United Kingdom to snatch the submarine order between France and Australia, France dared not speak out. How could France be willing to be the younger brother of the United States? Willing to be led by the United States?
However, how can the EU intervene in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and when will it intervene? Then don’t you have to wait for Russia to defeat the Ukrainian army? At that time, Russia will not be able to talk to the United States. Talking to the EU is the EU’s favorite situation. After all, the EU is under great pressure now. We have to give Ukraine aid money and aid weapons. The problem is that the final benefit is still all taken away by the United States?
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3: Indonesian is about to hold another summit. Whether Putin will go or not is particularly important to go with a halo. If the Russian army can win Donetsk within one month, it will be direct in enhancing the outside world's impression of the Russian army. If the Russian army retreats and focuses on defense, Putin will not only face pressure on the Ukrainian battlefield, but will also usher in cold reception at the international level.
Russia now has no way out. You have to fight, but the goal has not been completed yet, and the situation is a quagmire of war. This is not in Russia's interests nor in Putin's strategic plan. In the war in Ukraine, Russia fought a crisis, but it also came up with opportunities. But in the end it was a crisis or an opportunity. At present, it is still possible. At least, the Russian army must first complete the strategic goal of Donbass .
Does Russia not understand these principles? If you know why not do it?
War is not just about setting a goal. To achieve this goal, sufficient ammunition supply, troop investment and advanced weapons and equipment are required. However, Russia's current performance is really hard to satisfy. Sometimes it can even be puzzled. Why is the Russian fighter unable to launch a large-scale air strike against the Ukrainian army to stop the Ukrainian army from counterattacking?
This makes people surprised: is the number of fighter jets insufficient, or does it have ground-to-ground cruise missiles, or are they afraid of being shot down?
