As early as May, the report "Analysis of the Mainland's Mandatory Isolation of the Island" pointed out that between the "in and out of the air defense identification zone at will" that has occurred and the "comprehensive military operation" that has been worried about by all parties, the People's Liberation Army has a transitional paragraph on the compulsory measures on the island: that is, the "mandatory quarantine" of "encircling without attacking" in .
In early August, the People's Liberation Army held a large-scale military exercise around the island. Judging from the location, the People's Liberation Army's troops and firepower can directly block the entire island. The Rocket Force's missile directly passes over the island, accurately hitting targets in the eastern waters. All walks of life have also speculated whether the People's Liberation Army's military means will be upgraded again. And they all gave possible tactical predictions for the future.
, and Rand's research report believes that the most likely thing is "mandatory isolation". That is, to control the intensity of the operation to isolate the treasure island in the "gray zone", and the maritime blockade is mainly carried out by the Chinese coast guard and militia to avoid potential international interference. Rand Company is not a "blockade" that "completely blocks personnel and materials." It is similar to setting up a "checking post" at sea, only seizing or preventing entry of "banned items" such as military materials, and thus achieving the unified goal of "beating the enemy without fighting". This not only is the blockade controllable but the attitude is relatively gentle, but the intensity of conflict can be controlled.
Once the conflict escalates, the PLA can directly strengthen its vigilance. With the 60 submarines owned by the PLA Navy as the main tool for blockade, the ships entering and leaving the ports on the island are hunted with torpedo and anti-ship missiles , and the island's army is simply unable to respond.
However, military operations will try to avoid land-based missiles or fighter jets attacking US military facilities in Japan and other places. After all, directly attacking the US military base is not the best choice, and the interference caused by this is not what China wants to see.
When it comes to submarines, this is another major pain point for the authorities on the island. Although the island authorities have long attached great importance to the construction of armed forces and have achieved self-developed and self-produced equipment as much as possible. But after all, the island has limited population and resources. Faced with the huge military R&D funds of the People's Liberation Army, the island's armed forces can only dwarf the comparison.
Currently, the mainland can design and produce large aircraft carriers , nuclear submarine , heavy fifth-generation fighter jets, small individual weapons , and ammunition, completely self-sufficient. At present, there are only two submarines from the World War II period on the island's army. Such grandfather submarines are still regarded as treasures by the island's army and have been used until now.
The "submarine-made" that has been advocated for several years has developed into a "self-made defensive submarine" plan. From 2014 to now, there are still no physical products. The construction ceremony was not held until July 2020, and the keel ceremony was held in November 2021. At this progress, it may not be completed after the official return.
In contrast, the PLA Navy has more than ten attack nuclear submarines, , and there are more than 60 other conventional power submarines. Although some submarine models are old and need to be retired in an urgent manner, compared with the two diesel-electric submarines on the island during World War II, the advantage is great. If dozens of submarines are used to block the strait and surrounding waters, it will be quite fatal to the water surface force and supply lines on the island.
underwater cannot defeat the People's Liberation Army, and surface ship is a group of paper tigers. Now the People's Liberation Army has more than 100 destroyers, while the island's army has only 22 frigates and and 4 destroyers. Both in terms of quantity and quality, it is a situation of being stabilized by the People's Liberation Army. The People's Liberation Army also has a large number of amphibious landing fleets. At that time, each formation will perform its own duties and form an overwhelming advantage in all aspects. How can the authorities on the island rely on to defend it?
Faced with the above situation, U.S. strategic and national security expert Ou Hanlong believes that large-scale escort fleets should be used to deal with it, including the United States and its main military partners - Japan, Australia, Britain and France, the key.
Ouhanlong speculates that the United States may join the anti-submarine war with one or two key allies and establish a safe shipping area in the waters east of the island to break the blockade with nearly 100 surface ships.
As two countries with a sense of existence in the Western Pacific, the United States and Japan have always had the intention to get involved in the strait problem.
Not long ago, the Japanese Ministry of Defense also considered deploying about 1,000 missiles to deal with future strait conflicts. In the concept of the Ministry of Defense, these land-based anti-ship missile launch platforms are deployed on Kyushu and Ryukyu Islands , and can directly deter or block the PLA fleet that exits in the southwest. Because, if the PLA ship fleet wanted to block the eastern part of the island, it would inevitably have to borrow the waters in the southwestern part of Ryukyu. By then, the Self-Defense Force can directly use the land-based launch platform to complete the regional blockade through the forward sentry ship and the reconnaissance aircraft .
In addition, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force has a certain air defense and anti-missile platform. If the US Navy fleet is temporarily formed at that time, it will be a water force that cannot be underestimated in the east of the island, which will cause considerable trouble to the People's Liberation Army. Moreover, the power of the submarines of the Japanese sea cannot be ignored. It may lurk into the strait and wait for an opportunity to harass our army's ship .
Australia is also a potential country to interfere in the Straits conflict. On the surface, Australia seems to be far from our treasure island, but in recent years, Australia has been strengthening its military cooperation with Japan, the United States, India and other countries to strengthen its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region. And the anti-China sentiment in Australia is very high. The Australian Institute, an Australian think tank, showed that 47%, or nearly half of the respondents, absurdly believe that China will launch a military attack on Australia. Therefore, Australia is also a country that is likely to directly interfere in the Straits.
Although Britain and France are also allies of the United States, they are really out of reach for the Asia-Pacific region. Its core interest is not here, and the possibility of intervention is extremely small. However, it is still possible to express opposition to China and impose sanctions after the conflict escalates.
If the US colludes with separatists on the island to deliberately provoke regional conflicts, then the PLA has to take all measures to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and all the consequences at that time will be borne by the invaders.
hope that the authorities on the island will not be determined to act alone and take over the foreign powers. The United States should not provoke confrontation between countries and regions, and challenge China's bottom line. After all, peace and development are the main themes of today's international community.
