Just within the same day, two pipelines and three branch lines of Beixi all had accidents. The incident occurred on the evening of September 26, and relevant people from the German government were also shocked, saying that if it were not for targeted attacks, they would not imagine other possibilities, and it is very likely that it was an submarine attack. German media believe that this matter is either , Ukrainian, or Russian, and it seems that it has deliberately avoided the third possibility.
First of all, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been fighting until now, why has someone suddenly attacked the Beixi Pipeline? Beixi 2 has not been enabled since its completion. It is because Germany does not want to enable it. Putin and Russian representatives have repeatedly called out to Europe: It is very simple to want natural gas , just enable Beixi 2. Scholz and German officials were also very tough: they just don’t consider it. Therefore, the initiative to use Nord Stream 2 is in the hands of Germany.
, and Nord Stream 1 has been completely closed since early September. The reason given by Russia was "equipment problems". Germany first urged Canada to send back the gas turbine that was under maintenance. In September, it said again that the turbine oil leakage is not a reason to close the pipeline. The right to use Nord Stream One is in the hands of Russia.
After the suspension of supply of Nord Stream 1, I once posted a video about what was said that Germany was likely to start Nord Stream 2 at a key node, and its relations with Russia suddenly eased, rather than continuing to buy high-priced natural gas from the United States, because Germany and France really wanted to regain their former status as a world power. Recently, calls for the opening of Nord Stream II in Germany are getting higher and higher. On September 25, about 3,000 people demonstrated in the ruble in Germany, demanding the activation of Nord Stream II in search of "affordable" energy.
This situation of high public opinion could have been an opportunity to restart Beixi No. 2. But now No. 1 and No. 2 have been artificially damaged and must be repaired for at least several months. German media analyzed two possibilities. The first type is that in order to ensure that Russian gas flows into Europe only through Ukrainian pipelines, Ukraine launched an attack with external forces; the second type is that Russia launched an attack in order to promote further increase in natural gas prices.
The second possibility looks like making up the numbers. The control of Nord Stream One is in Russia's hands, which is equivalent to Russia holding a bargaining chip for negotiations with EU . In the first half of the year, the price of natural gas in major global markets rose by 3.5 times on average, with Gazprom's net profit of 2.51 trillion rubles, but the Russian treasury surplus still decreased from 1.5 trillion rubles to 137 billion rubles. Russia's economy mainly relies on energy exports. Why did it break its own way of retreat when neither pipeline is enabled?
If it is the first case, with Ukraine's military strength, even bags of food cannot be transported out of Black Sea under the nose of the Russian army. Without the help of external troops, can Ukraine destroy the pipelines located in the waters of Swedish and Denmark ? If so, who is helping Ukraine destroy Europe's natural gas pipelines?
European two pipelines were damaged, and the one who benefited the most was undoubtedly the seller of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2021, the United States, ranked first in LNG imported by Europe, accounted for 26%, , Qatar, , and Russia accounted for 20%. But in January 2022 alone, the United States supplied 60% of LNG to Europe. In the first half of 2022, European LNG imports increased by 27 billion cubic meters, of which 21.5 billion cubic meters came from the United States.
But American suppliers are not sluggish organizations. The average profit of each LNG ship heading to Europe is more than US$100 million, which is much more expensive than Russia's cheap pipeline natural gas. If Europe's dependence on Russian pipeline natural gas turns to its dependence on US LNG, the United States will not only gain a steady stream of energy revenue in the future, but also further binding and control of Europe.
In February this year, US President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz met at White House , Biden said that if a conflict between Russia and Ukraine occurs, the United States will "stop" the Nord Stream 2 project. As for how to achieve it, Biden said: I assure you that we can do it.It has not been a day or two for the United States to oppose Nord Stream 2, because the United States is also a natural gas exporter, and believes that the Nord Stream pipeline has squeezed out the US market share and cannot sell it to Europe at high prices to make money.
But if it is just a demonstration, it is not enough to prove that Germany will restart Nord Stream II, so why will anyone start now? Why do German media only analyze the two possibilities of Russia and Ukraine? Let's take a look at a piece of news today. As for whether there is any connection, I will leave it to you for your own judgment.
