On September 30, 2020, the "North Stream 2" natural gas pipeline project "Fortuna" pipe laying ship headed to Vismar, Germany. Photo/Xinhua News Agency
On June 24, local time, German "Spiegel Weekly" said with confidence that the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs may be considering "restarting Nord Stream 2". Previously, Miller, president of Russian gas company , also took the initiative to talk about this matter, which seemed to make people think of: may the project that has attracted attention in this life be resurrected?
Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, the deepest and closest bond between Germany and Russia was the mutually beneficial relationship between the supply and marketing of natural gas . The strongest link in this mutually beneficial relationship is the two gas pipelines with equivalent capacity, namely "Beixi No. 1" and "Beixi No. 2".
"North Stream 1" has been completed and put into use for many years, while "North Stream 2" is a project that Germany has vigorously promoted despite the public obstruction of the United States and others. However, due to the outbreak of the "big climate" of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, it failed at the last moment. Not only that, the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict has also profoundly changed the "political correctness" framework of Europe since the end of the Cold War .
has long formed a "path dependence" on Russia's energy, and there is no shortage of economic demand to restart "North Stream 2", so it is trying hard to avoid EU including natural gas on the list of sanctions against Russia. However, with the change of the Scholz government, "North Stream 2" seems to have become a major political taboo in Germany.
In this case, this "restart" is not the other "restart" - the "restart" mentioned in "Spirit Weekly" is just to consider partially "nationalizing" the pipeline in Germany, and then connect to the Baltic liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, that's it.
In contrast, the "restart" mentioned by the Russian Natural Gas Company is the real "restart". According to his statement, the dilemma of natural gas shortage in Europe "there is no good way to solve it at present", but "the 'North Stream 2' pipeline has been basically completed and can be put into use at any time."
In fact, the construction of "North Stream 2" was because "North Stream 1" that directly connected to Russia's gas source at that time was not enough to meet the needs of the German market, and other pipelines needed to be transferred through countries with tense relations with Russia such as Poland , Ukraine , and frequently constrained by international relations. Germany therefore hopes to build a new direct pipeline, and even looks forward to the future to rely on this to cooperate to open up a broader market for Western Europe .
In view of this, only if one end connects Germany, the "largest user", and the other end connects Russia, the "largest air source", can "Beixi 2" be called "Beixi 2".
However, according to Spiegel, Germany only followed the "North Stream 2" pipeline in Germany, which not only resets the gas source, but also changes the operator. Once such a "restart" is realized, the hope of "Beixi 2" truly "restart" in the future will become even more slim.
As mentioned earlier, Germany has long been "friendly" to Russia within the EU framework. One of the important reasons is its long-term dependence on Russia's energy path, and it has consumed a lot of money for it. This time, the "restart" proposed by the Russian Natural Gazprom is intended to strive to maintain and strengthen this path dependence.
The "restart" mentioned in "Spirit Sword" is to remove the fire from the bottom of the pot and further cut off this path dependence at the lowest cost. Once this plan is implemented, the real "North Stream 2" project may no longer exist.
From the current environment, except for a very small number of countries such as , Hungary, and , in Europe, most countries have begun to accept the fait accompli of "energy path dependence switching" and are ready to pay the price for it. In Germany, following the government's advocacy of energy conservation and reversal of the "green and environmental protection" trend, the so-called "North Stream 2 restart" mentioned by "Spirit Weekly" is about to emerge.
Therefore, this "restart" not only does not indicate that Germany and Russia have "disconnected" in natural gas supply and demand, but on the contrary shows that Germany has taken another key step forward on the road to getting rid of its dependence on Russia's energy path.
Written by Tao Short House (columnist)
Editing / Liu Yunyun
Proofreading / Lu Qian
