·Editor's Note·
In the 14 trading days from February 24 to March 12, there were 5 trading days when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,000 points, and the circuit breaker was hit twice - the first time in history, with an overall decline of 26.88%. Similar to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, other major indexes of U.S. stocks also plummeted during the same period. The US stock market has also spread the "pitfall virus" to the world, and major global markets are shrouded in the haze of a "technical bear market".
Amid the background of adverse factors in the peripheral market, the A-share market has also been dragged down, but the impact is smaller than that of other major markets, and its performance is outstanding. This has also caused many overseas institutions, including , Morgan Stanley, and Morgan Stanley, to call China a "safe haven" of global assets.
Professional investors who accepted this magazine's exclusive interview said that the overall valuation of the A-share market is still relatively low, and the judgment that the A-share market is in the "early stage of bull". Then, when foreign capital enters A shares , the target coverage should cover undervalued leading stocks such as banking, finance, medicine and consumption. From the perspective of ordinary investors, cautious participation is a relatively wise approach under the current situation.
This week (as of Thursday, US time), major global markets plummeted and triggered circuit breakers, and central banks in many countries such as Japan and Europe have successively issued response measures. In the absence of the People's Bank of China "follow", the Shanghai Composite Index performed relatively outstandingly.
Shenzhen Lin Yuan Asset Chairman Lin Yuan told the Red Weekly reporter, "Our view has not changed. A-shares are currently in the early stage of a bull market, which is our most basic judgment. Regarding the recent sharp drop in US stocks, I don't think it's said that the bull market has ended, because it is normal to have 30% fluctuations in the bull market." In the view of overseas investors such as Oak Capital , Gaoteng Capital, Singapore Wufu Capital, Dorfman Fund, etc., whether it is a historical vertical comparison or a horizontal comparison with US stocks, the A-share market is still relatively cheap. Long-term investors can consider making some A-share allocations in their portfolios.
Once in a century, the big era
The comparison of optional "policy tools" between China and the United States is obvious
The new crown pneumonia epidemic has a blow to the global economic outlook. From the perspective of China and the United States, China ushered in a turning point in the epidemic, and the United States is still waiting for the peak of the epidemic. In terms of dealing with market risks, there are two main policy tools available in the United States, and China's policy tools reserves are much richer than that. The latest news shows that the People's Bank of China decided to implement a targeted reserve requirement cut inclusive finance on March 16, 2020.
In the past week, investors in the global market have been in a state of ease. Under the influence of the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the soaring oil price decline, major U.S. stock indicators such as the S&P 500 Index broke twice within a week. From the beginning of the year to March 13, the indexes of 42 countries and regions, including the Russian RTS Index, the UK FTSE 100 Index, the Australian Common Stock Index, the Nasdaq Index, the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, all fell, and the cloud of the "technical bear market" shrouded over the global capital market.
While the equity market is "down" and the yield on the US Treasury bonds has also declined rapidly. Barclays strategists in the United States issued a forecast on March 12 that the possibility of US Treasury yields falling to 0% increased significantly. In a report published on March 10, Ren Zeping, director of Evergrande Research Institute, pointed out, "This is a once-in-a-century era, and we are on the brink of the global economic and financial crisis."
Beijing Gray Asset General Manager Zhang Kexing told the Red Weekly reporter, "I agree with Mr. Ren's view that no country can survive in the global economic integration."
From the perspective of China and the United States, China has ushered in the turning point of the epidemic, and the impact of the epidemic on the economy is mainly concentrated in the first quarter. Li Yu, chief investment officer of Gaoteng International Equity, believes that "we expect electricity consumption demand to decline a lot in the first quarter. From this perspective, it is also possible that some industries will experience negative growth in the first quarter." But it is still unknown when the epidemic in the United States will reach its peak. Zhang Kexing believes that the United States is unlikely to adopt a method of lockdown and mobilization for the whole country, and will take more voluntary prevention and control measures, "So we believe that the impact of the US economy may be smaller."
The epidemic is still raging in European and American economies," but the market is worried about a financial crisis, which I think is a bit exaggerated. "Li Yu believes that although the debt-to-debt ratio of the United States is relatively high, the interest burden on the company itself is not very high. "For example, in 2000, the interest rate of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was about 5%, and in 2007 it was 4%, and currently it is less than 1% (data reference: Bloomberg). Therefore, the current credit spread of US companies is not much higher than before. In addition, whether a company encounters financial risks depends on the solvency of its debt. Now, the cash flow of of most American companies is very good. "
" Investors may be a little worried about oil-related industries at the moment," said Li Yu. "For example, the shale oil industry, these companies have relatively high debt ratios, coupled with the current emotional impact of the oil 'price war' between Saudi Arabia and Russia. But in fact, judging from past historical data, the impact of the decline in oil prices on the United States is relatively neutral, and the losses of American oil companies are equivalent to giving benefits to domestic consumers. As for China and Europe, it is a big benefit. The sharp decline in oil prices is equivalent to Saudi Arabia and Russia taking the initiative to "concessions". However, in the long run, no one can afford to spend a long-term low oil price, at most some oil companies will go bankrupt, but in the end, it still hopes that oil prices can return to a reasonable range. Therefore, the probability of a plummeting oil price triggering a financial crisis is not high. If the oil price soars to $200, then you need to be wary of potential financial risks. "
Despite this, the market is still concerned about the "policy toolbox" of the Chinese and American governments. Zhang Kexing believes that "the United States' regulatory space will be much smaller than that of China. Since Trump took office, almost all the policies that can be used in recent years have been used. At present, there are still some policies available in the United States, such as interest rate cuts. The United States is currently in the channel for interest rate cuts. If there is no room for interest rate cuts, it can also expand its balance sheet. Compared with the United States, China not only has the above two tools, but also has many other resources available, including loose fiscal policy, driving infrastructure, and leverage of local governments when conditions permit. "
The same view is Yin Xinxin, the founder of Benniu Investment. He said in an interview with a reporter from Red Weekly, "Among the major economies in the world, my country's monetary policy is still one of the few countries that are still in a normalized monetary policy, and liquidity is expected to be released in the future. "
The epidemic crisis is difficult to end the "super bull market" of US stocks
US stocks are likely to fluctuate, while A-shares may fluctuate upward during the same period
The decline of the market by more than 30% does not necessarily mean that the bear market is coming, and this situation may also occur in bull market adjustments. However, the overall valuation of US stocks at present is about 25 times, compared with its 10- The 20-fold reasonable range is still relatively high, so US stocks are likely to fluctuate this year. Relatively, A-shares are likely to fluctuate upward.
So, will this epidemic crisis lead to the end of the 10-year bull bull in the US stock market? Lin Yuan said in an interview with a reporter from Red Weekly, "We are not able to judge whether it is over. We temporarily regard it as an adjustment in the bull market, and the adjustment range in the bull market may usually exceed 30%. The main reason is that the cumulative increase in the early stage has been too large, so take a break now. "
Li Yu also believes that the bull market in the US stock market has not ended yet. "Unless the epidemic in the United States breaks out uncontrollably, it may drag down the US stock market to go bearish. But from subjective judgment, this probability is not high. After all, the medical and residents' quality in the United States are relatively good in the world.
In addition, this plunge is related to the rapid decline in treasury bond yields. "He explained, "If the US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate fell to about 0.5%, the 30-year Treasury bond interest rate fell below 1% (data reference: Bloomberg). For global asset allocators, in the past, when European and Japanese bond liabilities were in debt, they still had US bonds and US stocks to allocate, but now US bond yields are falling rapidly, the allocation value of US bonds will be greatly reduced.In contrast, as the risks are gradually released, global allocation funds will choose investment products with relatively higher returns. For example, should we choose a risk-free return of less than 1% for US 10-year Treasury bonds, or will we choose an equity investment with an annual S&P 500 of about 3% and a long-term dividend of 4%? This is obvious (reference data: Bloomberg). As for the S&P 500, as of the close of US stocks on March 11, the cumulative decline of about 18% compared with the February high, and the risks were partially released. "
Zhang Kexing also believes that from a macro perspective, the end of any bull market, whether it is the United States or China, mostly comes from the capital side, that is, the contraction of liquidity. "If we are in a cycle of continuous interest rate hikes and the interest rate hikes to the highest point, the bull market may end. For example, the sharp drop in 2018 was caused by deleveraging and the impact of trade frictions. This is true for both US stocks and Hong Kong stocks. "
is endorsing "killing valuations" and loose capital, the growth of US stock companies themselves is still relatively strong. Zhang Kexing concluded, "If the performance of good US stock companies in 2020 continues to maintain a growth of about 20%, then after experiencing the decline in the past month, the valuation will be about 25 times, which is within a reasonable range. But this does not mean that it is safe, because the valuation of US stocks has been in the 10-20 times range in the past few decades, which matches the growth rate of corporate long-term profits at around 20%. Therefore, US stocks may maintain a volatile market this year, while A-shares may be a volatile upward market. "
Zhang Kexing said, "We have been investing for 17 years and have experienced many 'disasters' events. Disasters like the epidemic are often very short-term. The US market has a development history of more than 200 years and has experienced much more disasters than us, so the epidemic and oil plunge are far less panicked than we imagined. The sharp drop in US stocks is more of a pullback after the previous valuation pushes up. From the perspective of one year, I think it may not be as pessimistic as everyone thinks, and we are still relatively optimistic. "
However, at the investment level, Li Yu advises investors to be more cautious, "The current investors are actually slightly optimistic about A-share pricing. Has the market completely digested the negative GDP growth in the first quarter that the epidemic may bring? It is still difficult to judge at the moment. Therefore, from an investment perspective, we do not recommend that investors bring a large amount of funds into the market to buy at the bottom in the medium and short term, because from the perspective of medium and short term trends, being able to hold at the current position is a relatively good trend, and investors should be more cautious in the short term. "
A-share overall valuation is low for a long time
China's asset attractiveness continues to increase
Compared with the Chinese and US stock markets, the overall valuation of the A-share market is low for a long time. At present, , Shanghai Stock Exchange 50PE, PB is lower than , Dow Jones ; CSI 300PE, PB is lower than S&P 500. However, the average net profit growth rates of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 Indexes are significantly ahead of the US stock index. This reflects that the A-share market is relatively more attractive.
accepts "Red Weekly" The reason why the professional investors interviewed judged that the A-share market fluctuated upward is mainly due to the undervalued status of the A-share market. As of March 10, the P/E ratio (average) and P/E ratio (average) of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 were lower than the Dow Jones Index ; the P/E ratio (average) and P/E ratio (average) of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 were lower than the S&P 500 Index. (See the attached table)
In response to this, Ye Hua, general manager of Yunyi Assets, explained, "The historical median of the S&P 500 Price-to-Equity ratio (TTM) was 19.5 times, and 19.1 times on March 10; the median price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Dow Jones Index was 16.7 times, and 19 times on March 10. Overall, the recent sharp drop has caused a certain return to the valuation of US stocks, but it has not yet reached a safe level. With the impact of the intensified global COVID-19 epidemic on the economy and oil price war, there is still room for decline. In contrast, A-shares are significantly undervalued. ”In addition to the low valuation,
, from the perspective of stock and bond yields, as of the end of 2019, the dividend yield of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 2.59%, and the 10-year treasury bond maturity yield was 3.02% (currently about 2.6%). If the constituent stocks with the top 15 dividend yields in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 were further selected as statistics, the dividend yield was 7.17%, which is far higher than the current 10-year treasury yield, and is incomparable to negative interest rates overseas.Zhang Lichong, a partner of the US-Hong Kong Capital, said in an interview with Red Weekly, "A high dividend yield means a low valuation and will continue to attract capital inflows."
In this regard, Zhang Kexing believes that "many major countries around the world have cut interest rates, and the asset shortage is becoming more and more serious. Therefore, low-valuation and high dividend companies are stocks we like very much, because this can grasp certain opportunities. We are also optimistic about the opportunities in Hong Kong stocks according to this logic. The average dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks is now 4 points, and the average valuation is less than 10 times. Every time in history, this time, They are all a good buying point. So from this perspective, Chinese assets are also worthy of foreign capital allocation. "He also pointed out, "Our consumer leaders have a profit growth rate of 15%-20% every year, and some technology companies such as 5G and new energy vehicles are growing faster. In fact, both foreign funds and domestic funds have seen these opportunities, and these opportunities will last for 3-5 years."
Chairman of Shenzhen Mingda Asset Management Company Liu Mingda also believes that the attractiveness of Chinese assets with stable returns will continue to rise. "China's 10-year Treasury bond yield is around 2.6%, while the US 10-year Treasury bond yield is currently below 1%. In fact, judging from the dividend returns of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, its annual dividend returns are still more than 3%, which is nearly twice as high as the Dow Jones Index's dividend returns. The attractiveness of Chinese assets is obvious."
Liu Mingda pointed out, "The confidence in long-term investment also comes from the fact that the RMB exchange rate has remained stable for a considerable period of time after the impact of the epidemic. Although we can see that the RMB's 'break of 7' against the US dollar in the past two days, the corresponding What is the sharp pullback in the global equity, fixed income, futures and commodity markets. Therefore, we believe that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been significantly strong for some time, and its practical significance is not high, but it reflects that global capital's confidence in the RMB is increasing. We expect that the RMB exchange rate against a package of currencies will likely rise further this year to next year. This is an important stabilizer for domestic asset prices. "
A-share market's "low valuation, high dividends, high growth" and other characteristics have all enhanced the attractiveness of A-shares and have attracted the attention of domestic and foreign investors. Lin Yuan only emphasized one sentence, "The current A-share valuation is relatively low and the risk is relatively low."
Foreign capital is bullish and longing China
A shares are currently the "favorite" of value investors
Just like Morgan Stanley has included China as a "safe haven" country, many foreign capital is bullish and longing China. Judging from the characteristics of Chinese assets, long-term investors and value investors "love" the Chinese market the most.
According to data from Eikon Lipper ( Reuters ), from March 2 to March 6, US dollar money funds, US Treasury bonds, and Asian stock markets are "safe havens" for funds, with funds flowing in, while US stocks and US high-yield bonds have become the main targets for capital escape. This information is consistent with Morgan Stanley's "prediction".
Judging from the foreign institutions interviewed by Red Weekly, most of them are bullish and do long China. Zhang Jingshu, managing director of Dorfman Fund, believes, "I am still bullish on A-shares. China has performed very well in response to the epidemic in this epidemic. The domestic epidemic has basically been controlled. Recently, A-shares have also performed very strongly compared to US stocks."
Oak Capital also said in an interview with Red Weekly that they usually regard market volatility as a good opportunity to buy and adjust positions, but they are not radical in the face of this decline. Oak Capital believes that first of all, the Chinese government will support employment through tax and liquidity policies, and economic stimulus policies may include interest rate cuts, increase fixed asset investment, and relaxation of restrictions on buying houses in small cities. "But the 4 trillion stimulus policy similar to 2008 is difficult to reproduce; in addition, short-term commodity prices are weak, and isolation and economic decline have a great impact on oil demand. We may see OPEC and the United States cut production to protect oil prices. We expect cement and metal prices to rebound with fixed asset investment stimulus; and, the field of biotechnology is impressive, the confirmation process of the new coronavirus and the acquisition of the virus sequence is much shorter than that of SARS, and many companies are developing vaccines and special drugs.We believe that the Chinese government will continue to encourage the development of the industry. More importantly, in comparison, China's economy is huge and any emerging market economy will be affected. At the same time, the sudden rate cut of the Federal Reserve and the ultra-low yield on US Treasury bonds mean that the market believes that the growth rate of developed economies will also decline accordingly. ”
Co-founder and CEO of Singapore Wu Fu Capital Wu Zhijian told the reporter of Red Weekly, "I have mentioned many times before that the valuation of A-shares is at a relatively low level, and it is relatively cheaper whether compared with the historical average or the US stock market. Long-term investors can consider allocating some A-share assets in their investment portfolio. "
So, how can funds flow from US stocks into A-shares? Zhang Zihua, chairman of Yunyi Asset, introduced, "In the process of rapid decline in the US stock market, extremely panicked funds will first hide in the bond market to avoid risks, resulting in a decline in interest rates for long-term treasury bonds. With the Fed's interest rate cut, it is currently expected that a 100 basis point cut in March, so that the United States will approach zero interest rate level and bond yields will fall to a new low. As a result, the bond market is no longer safe, and capital can only choose to leave the United States, and the exchange rate faces huge pressure. In such an environment, capital will choose the safest place and choose emerging markets without the old world ‘old money’ represented by the United States and Europe. In emerging markets, China has an absolute advantage in terms of political stability, governance capabilities, economic scale and prospects. "
. Many of the funds that were the first and continued to pour into China may be asset allocation funds. Wei Xinyuan, director of investment and research at Windsor Capital Management, told reporters, "I have worked in foreign-funded institutions for a while, and some old colleagues are still in foreign-funded institutions. We found that institutions in the United States and Hong Kong have been in existence for a long time, and they have found a way to invest. In other words, what kind of market can keep rising? It is a market where all participants follow the same set of rules. We can see that the characteristic of the US stock market is that the stock price is usually very stable, and the market will fluctuate until the time when the statements, forecasts, and strategies are issued. They do not have the situation of "speculating emotions" or "speculating news". If an institution does such a thing, other institutions will definitely work together to "eliminate" it and then continue to have existing rules. This set of rules is the cash flow discount method (DCF), including the free cash flow discount method (FCF), dividend cash flow discount method (DDM), etc., but no matter what method, DCF is the most widely used valuation method for foreign institutions. If estimated according to the cash flow discount method, China is one of the most undervalued assets. "
Junhe Capital Partner Founder Wang Guobin said at the end of last year in a speech entitled "Re-On the Institutional Foundation of Value Investment" that since 1990, value investment has gradually shifted from the United States where quantitative transactions are rampant to Japan and Europe. "Foreign investors have been buying and buying in the Chinese market. The important reason is that they have seen familiar vu opportunities. "
Foreign capital continues to buy China's core assets
In the three fields of urgent needs, medicine and liquor,
The idea of foreign capital is very clear, that is, to allocate necessary consumption, which may be related to the current epidemic. However, based on the general logic of foreign capital's preference for consumer stocks, the allocation of foreign capital in the fields of urgent needs, medicine and liquor demonstrates rationality.
only Judging from the performance of northbound funds this week, it was outflowed sharply on March 9, March 11 and March 12. In this regard, Yin Xinxin believes that northbound funds have always had a keen sense of smell, and the continuous outflow is mainly due to the demand for risk aversion. In the current global market environment, any risky assets are facing downward risks. Investors' first reaction is to reduce their positions, stay away from risks, and wait for the release of risks before making layouts. "I believe that the recent continuous large-scale net outflow of northbound funds is not not optimistic about Chinese assets, but more because of their own risk control needs in the short term. Although there are many short-term net outflows, looking at the time cycle, northbound funds are still constantly buying core assets in China.”
Judging from the changes in northbound funds, from the beginning of the year to March 9, the top 20 companies whose holdings of foreign capital (including northbound funds and QFII/RQFII funds and foreign private equity funds) have continued to increase in the proportion of total market value: Milkwei, Biotechnology, New Natural Gas, Zhibang Home Furnishing, Shunxin Agriculture , Xinao Co., Ltd., Ruike Laser, Weining Health, China National Travel Service, Wanfu Biotechnology, Dian Diagnosis, Qianhe Flavor Industry, Guanglianda, Joyoung Co., Ltd., Hang Seng Electronics, Kairun Co., Ltd., Sankeshu, Perchoa, Kellyte and Hualan Bio, including 7 consumer stocks, 5 health care stocks and 4 information technology stocks.
In this regard, Wei Xinyuan analyzed, "First of all, the investment logic of the medical sector is very simple. A while ago, Italy purchased a lot of monitors from Mindray Medical. If the epidemic spreads around the world, only China can produce these products and supply them to the world, so foreign capital will definitely increase the allocation of medical stocks. Secondly, the logic of foreign capital allocation of consumer stocks is also very simple. When the epidemic is not around, domestic and foreign institutions are also talking about consumption. However, consumption is divided into rigid consumption and elastic consumption. For example, China National Travel Service, its main business is duty-free shops, which is a rigid demand. In the performance report released by China National Travel Service, it opened for 10 days in February, but its performance was only 30% lower than the same period in 2019. Shunxin Agriculture and Qianhe Flavor Industry are also in rigid demand. In terms of flexible demand consumer stocks, domestic and foreign capital is flowing out of high-end consumption, hotels, attractions and other stocks. "
From the perspective of the pharmaceutical and liquor sectors alone, the price-earnings ratio of the innovative drug leader Hengrui Medicine has been above 60 times for a long time. In this regard, Wei Xinyuan believes that in the track of innovative drugs, there is no other target that can be compared with Hengrui. Just like Perchoy in the cosmetics industry and Haitian Flavor Industry in the seasoning industry, these two can give a valuation of more than 60 times, and it is not an exaggeration to give a valuation of Hengrui Medicine . In addition, there are many heavy-weight drugs on the Hengrui Medicine pipeline that are about to be launched, and the competitive landscape is also clear. It can also be predicted how much performance returns it will bring after being included in medical insurance. " Therefore, if Hengrui is given a 20%-30% probability of innovative drugs, the DCF valuation method will be used to calculate its corporate value between 400 billion and 500 billion. As of March 12, Hengrui's valuation was around 380 billion yuan, so there is still at least 10% room for growth. "
In addition to Hengrui Medicine , Wei Xinyuan is also optimistic about Mindray Medical . "I think companies like Hengrui Medicine and Mindray Medical , if they give them another 3-5 years, they will catch up with international pharmaceutical giants. At present, international pharmaceutical giants have begun to weaken their technological innovation attributes and highlight their consumption attributes. Johnson & Johnson is a good example. It was the leader in innovative medicines before, but now it mainly focuses on daily necessities. Making soap is one of the best companies in the world. However, the annual R&D investment of Hengrui Medicine and Mindray Medical exceeds 40%, and it is involved in many drugs and fields, and its valuation can be relatively higher. "
In terms of liquor, the current price-to-earnings ratio of Kweichow Moutai, the leading liquor leader, is more than 30 times. In this regard, Zhang Liang, chairman of Baoding Investment, believes that "Kweichow Moutai expects net profit growth rate to be 10%-15% in 2020. According to the current price-to-earnings ratio, it is indeed overestimated, but the market will comprehensively consider brand value, performance certainty and market risk sentiment. Under the sentiment of global capital finding a safe haven in the current period, funds will flow into leading liquor companies with high performance certainty. Judging from the current 2019 performance announcements of some wine companies, the growth is still relatively stable. However, the current prosperity of the liquor industry has reached its peak, and most companies are operating at high inventory, so the growth potential of the later period remains to be seen. "
Foreign capital currently has more emphasis on the allocation of liquor in liquor than first-tier leading enterprises. Zhang Liang believes that when foreign capital has liquor assets, second-tier liquor needs to have a brilliant report card to attract foreign capital favor. The quality of the enterprise is based on performance, and the allocation of funds will also follow the performance. "Although some second-tier liquors are also launching high-end products, because the high-end liquor market has high customer stickiness, not only good quality, but also brand value, second-tier liquor companies are still weak in this regard."
At the same time, judging from the number of foreign-funded institutions holding the company's shares, foreign capital is trying more individual stocks. Specifically, some of the stocks that were "neglected" in the early stage have been increased by many foreign-funded institutions since this year. For example, Postal Savings Bank only held 5 foreign-funded institutions on December 31, 2019, but 21 institutions held it on March 9, 2020. The same situation is also Yiyuan Communications, which was previously held by 9 foreign-funded institutions and 21 institutions held it on March 9. In this case, there are also Sega Technology, Maiwei Co., Ltd., Suken Agriculture, CITIC Special Steel, Xiantan Co., Ltd., Ogilvy Medical , Zhongying Electronics, etc., these companies only paid less than 10 foreign-invested institutions attention on December 31, 2019, but more than 6 new foreign-invested institutions have bought for the first time this year.
In this regard, Zhang Kexing believes that foreign capital considers more the fundamentals of the enterprise, and foreign capital will also pay attention to China's policies. "From our perspective, they have a good understanding of the policies. The government work report puts forward the top ten strategic directions for the next five years, including industrial Internet, biotechnology, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and new energy vehicles, etc. Foreign capital will make arrangements. "
Carefully treat foreign capital's allocation in technology stocks
Banks and real estate are still the "gold pit"
Foreign capital is also allocating A-share technology leaders, as well as banks and real estate leaders. But for ordinary investors, some need to be treated with caution, while others should be paid attention to.
Foreign capital is a long-term topic for the allocation of A-share technology stocks, and this epidemic has also made the market pay more attention to technology stocks. Li Yu told the reporter of "Red Weekly" that for this epidemic, online office, online teaching, and online shopping have been vigorously developed, which is beneficial to technology companies to a certain extent. "From the perspective of A-shares, it is recommended to pay appropriate attention to the investment opportunities of technology stocks. On the one hand, China's future development needs to rely on technology to achieve upgrading in order to better cope with the pressure from the United States. On the other hand, judging from the experience of the US stock market, the cumulative increase of Nasdaq has surpassed the Dow Jones Index for a long period of time. This trend is very obvious and has shown no signs of change in decades. Personally, I believe that the technology industry will definitely surpass traditional industries or even traditional blue chips in the future and obtain better returns. "
However, Zhang Lichong believes that China's Huawei has the prototype of a global company, but most other technology companies still have a large technological gap from Western developed countries, and it takes time to catch up. "So, at the current investment stage, we no longer recommend configuring technology companies, and are more optimistic about manufacturing companies with very obvious competitive advantages. ”
In addition to the technology sector, the current valuation of the banking and real estate sectors in the A-share market is at a historical low. Zhang Zihua believes that "under the environment of interest rate cuts, the interest rate spread is narrowing for banks, and the fundamentals are relatively short, but the company is at a low valuation level, with PB at around 0.76 times, which is lower than 95% of the history. The increase in liquidity market environment will also push up the valuation of banks, so banks are still sectors that focus on capital allocation such as mixed funds and insurance with low risk appetite. ”
For the real estate sector, the national policy on "housing for living, not for speculation" will not change, but under the policy of "one city, one policy", the improvement housing may be moderately relaxed. Zhang Zihua said, "For real estate companies at low valuations, it is a state of negative consequences. If the policy is slightly loose, the stock price will react. Focus on real estate companies with state-owned enterprise background, good cash flow, and development of mid-to-high-end residential products. "
Zhang Li Chong is very optimistic about banks and real estate. He believes that the valuations of banks and real estate companies have reflected the most pessimistic expectations at present and are of great investment value.
(Reporters of this magazine Xie Changyan, Lin Weiping and He Yan also contributed to this article)
This article is from the securities market red weekly
