Southern Finance All Media Information Communication Researcher Peng Zhuo, intern Wan Chaofan Comprehensive Report
August 29, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly issued an action plan to accelerate the green and low-carbon innovation development of power equipment. The Action Plan proposes that promotes the industrialization of crystal silicon solar cell technologies such as TOPCon, HJT, IBC, and other perovskite and stacked battery module technologies, and carries out research and application of new high-efficiency and low-cost photovoltaic cell technology, and carries out intelligent photovoltaic pilot demonstration and industry application.
was affected by the news. As of August 29, A shares closed, Oriental Fortune Choice data showed that TOPCon battery index (861459.EI) rose 2.99%, among component , Beijing Kerui and Jinko Energy led the rise.
Image source: Choice
TOPCon battery has significant advantages and is becoming the technical route for industrialization
Guohai Securities believes that , passivation contact batteries represented by TOPCon batteries, have higher efficiency limits (28.2%-28.7%), higher than HIT's 27.5% limit efficiency, and is also far higher than the existing PERC batteries (24.5%), and is closest to the theoretical limit efficiency of crystal silicon solar cell (29.43%). In addition, TOPCon is compatible with the existing PERC production lines, and the single GW transformation cost is about 50 million yuan. Facing the pressure of large-scale PERC production lines equipment asset depreciation settling , upgrading and transformation extending the equipment's usage cycle, and its advantages in improving efficiency and reducing costs are more obvious. TOPCon batteries, as a new technology route, take into account both cost and efficiency. is the cost-effective route choice in the next 2-3 years.
China Merchants Securities believes that , photovoltaic cell technology has undergone multiple iterations. As the efficiency of PERC battery gradually approaches the theoretical limit of 24.5%, TOPCon's own plating problem has also been solved. At present, this technical route is economical. At the same time, TOPCon batteries are basically upgraded from the infrastructure of PERC batteries. In addition to the substrate changing from P-type to N-type, the main difference is the preparation of boron expansion and passivation layer, and the equipment in other links does not change much. Therefore, TOPCon is expected to quickly replace PERC and become the main technical route of battery .
Photovoltaic cell technology iteration roadmap, battery efficiency trend map/picture source: China Merchants Securities
CITIC Securities statistics . As of now, the mass production capacity of TOPCon by Jinko and Zhonglai companies has exceeded 24GW. The existing production capacity and planned new investment scale of each company exceed 80GW. In , at least half of the production capacity of more than 300GW in the industry can be upgraded to TOPCon.
TOPCon batteries are gradually starting to be widely used, and the average annual market space of equipment may exceed 12 billion yuan
Everbright Securities points out . According to the prediction of China Photovoltaic Association , with the advancement of HJT and TOPCon technologies, the photovoltaic cell pattern will undergo major changes in 2030. The market share of PERC crystal silicon batteries will drop sharply from 87% in 2021 to 36.7%, and the market share of HJT single crystal silicon batteries and n-TOPCon single crystal silicon batteries will reach 32.5% and 24.1% respectively.
HJT, n-TOPCon battery market share will increase rapidly/Picture source: Everbright Securities
China Merchants Securities believes that , TOPCon scale application has been launched, which will bring corresponding demands and opportunities. After successfully solving technical problems such as winding and plating, relevant leading companies took the lead in launching the large-scale expansion of TOPCon. At present, TOPCon has a certain economic value compared to PERC. In the future, with the implementation of TOPCon's many technologies and scale effects, its economic value will be further strengthened. Considering that most component factories have layouts in the TOPCon field, it is expected that 3-5 companies will start large-scale TOPCon production capacity construction in the second half of this year. TOPCon will usher in a intensive production expansion period from 2022 to 2024. It is estimated that the average annual market space for battery equipment will exceed 12 billion in the next few years, and equipment companies with first-mover advantages will benefit.
TOPCon equipment space calculation/Picture source: China Merchants Securities
Investment advice
CITIC Securities believes that , TOPCon production capacity has expanded, and equipment materials have significantly benefited .
According to the investment plan of domestic and foreign battery manufacturers, it is expected that TOPCon is expected to enter a period of capacity explosion starting from 2022. TOPCon production capacity mainly comes from new production and PERC production line transformation. With the domestic production of equipment and the improvement of material and process maturity, is expected to invest more than 24 billion yuan in TOPCon equipment in 2025, and a total investment of more than 70 billion yuan in four years.
TOPCon production expansion continues to advance, and the low consumption of silver paste and the domestic production process of important material silver paste is accelerated. For TOPCon batteries, silver paste costs account for more than 40% of the non-silicon costs of the battery, and reducing silver paste costs has become an important link in the mass production and development of TOPCon. On the one hand, by reducing silver paste consumption through thin linearization + multi-main gate, leading companies have already equipped with ultra-fine gate + SMBB process technology; on the other hand, the localization of silver paste has been continuously reducing costs, and the current process of domestic TOPCon silver paste has exceeded 20%. It is expected that this process will accelerate with the production of domestic TOPCon battery capacity. The expansion of
TOPCon component production capacity will also increase The demand for POE adhesive film . POE adhesive film has increased compared with ordinary EVA adhesive film in terms of sales price and gross profit margin, thereby driving the increase in revenue and gross profit margin of enterprises with process advantages.
TOPCon battery cost composition/Picture source: CITIC Securities
Institutional recommendation stocks
Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ) : Achieve full coverage of PERC+/TOPCon/HJT equipment, PE-Poly technology route equipment has been fully recognized by customers, dry and wet equipment has been promoted simultaneously, the proportion of equipment value has increased to 70%+, and leading customers have increased their PE-Poly route to promote the improvement of technology penetration rate .
Otway (688516.SH):Otway started out in component equipment, and has newly entered the fields of silicon wafer equipment, battery equipment and semiconductor equipment, and is expected to become a platform enterprise.
Suzhou Gutechnet (002079.SZ) : The company's Jingyin products include TOPCon battery silver paste; with the implementation of the production capacity of heterojunction batteries, the sales of low-temperature HJT slurry products are also showing a rapid growth trend; silver-clad copper products have been tested for reliability at customers.
Sewu Technology (603212.SH): The company has quickly developed TOPCon special POE film products for TOPCon battery modules. It has passed the test and started small batch trials.
(Report source: CITIC Securities, GF Securities , China Merchants Securities, Everbright Securities, Guohai Securities; the information in this article does not constitute any investment advice, the content published comes from licensed securities institutions, does not represent the platform's views, investors are required to make independent judgments and decisions.)
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