The so-called "hot" stocks are undoubtedly the first stocks in all fields. In 2021, there will be "the first short video stock" Kuaishou, the first shared travel stock Didi, the first blind box stock Pop Mart, the first milk tea stock Naixue Tea, the first fresh food e-commerce s

Author: Yang Xiaohe

"It's hot, it's not hot, it's not hot, it's not hot."

As a firm hot stock investment retail investor, Zhang Qiang adheres to this iron rule and "enter new" new commercial enterprises in IPOs. The so-called "hot" stocks are undoubtedly the first stocks in all fields. In 2021, there will be "the first short video stock" Kuaishou, the first shared travel stock Didi, the first blind box stock Pop Mart , the first milk tea stock Naixue Tea, the first fresh food e-commerce stock Daily Youxian , and even the first insurance technology stock Water Drop and the first smart massage stock.

How crazy is the new stock with the first halo on its head? Kuaishou's stock price rose 161% on the first day of listing, while Bei Qing rose 5 times on the first day of listing, and Pupu Culture, which plays hip-hop, rose 8 times on the third day of listing. What’s even more exaggerated is that Pop Mart , when the New Third Board was delisted, its market value was only 2 billion yuan, and its market value soared to 100 billion two years later. The focus effect of the first stock of

has also made capital begin to intensively find leaders in various industries. Next, the first stock of Chopsticks, Double Gun Technology, the first stock of AI, Yuncong Technology, and NetEase Cloud Music, the first stock of music community. Of course, there is Huazhuo Jingke, the first stock of " lithography machine, " that has failed on the road to IPO, and the first stock of sex toys, Zuiqingfeng.

But Zhang Qiang has hesitated about investment in various first stocks recently, "I was cut naked by Naixue's Tea, and I accidentally lost a lot of new investment." It turned out that after this project in the primary market of was launched, it broke the issue price on the same day, and the green shoe mechanism did not start to protect retail investors at all.

The first stock held by many investors for a long time is even more in the hands of the company. Kuaishou has fallen 73% from its highest point, Pop Mart fell 49% from its highest point, and Wuxin Technology fell 85% from its highest point. Only three or four stocks in the "first stock" are growing.

These first stocks listed in 2021, in the words of an investor, are summarized: "How high did you brag at the beginning, how deep the pain is now; how good you thought at the beginning, how cruel you regret now." How attractive is the story of the first stock of

?

Li Xue still remembers the excitement of her first new investment. Her first investment was to buy Kuaishou, the "first short video stock", which also made a big profit for the pure novice.

However, the madness continued. 10 days later, Kuaishou's stock price reached its highest point of 417 yuan, with a market value of HK$1.738 trillion. Kuaishou's market value directly surpassed JD , Xiaomi and Baishou's . Li Xue felt that she could not understand it at that time. Is the ceiling of the first short video stock so high?

Kuaishou's business imagination mainly involves live e-commerce and Internet advertising. In the view of analysts, in 2020, the GMV of Kuaishou's live e-commerce reached 381.6 billion yuan, while Kuaishou's planned GMV in 2021 was 800 billion yuan, higher than the US$100 billion GMV of eBay in 2020.

Facebook global monthly active users are 2.9 billion, and Kuaishou announced the global monthly active users in June to be 1 billion. Kuaishou in 2021 is one-third of Facebook + one eBay. Overly optimistic market expectations pushed Kuaishou to a high of one trillion Hong Kong dollars. Before

, there were Kuaishou, Pop Mart , and the surge in well-known stocks of Wuxin Technology also made Naixue's Tea's confidence surge. Naixue’s Tea founder Peng Xin said without any concealment when he was interviewed by the media before his listing that the company’s goal is Starbucks in the milk tea field. "Actually, in the opening of a store, Starbucks can be a very good reference target for us."

As of August 3, the market value of Starbucks was as high as US$141.9 billion, and there are 5,000 stores in mainland China. Although Naixue’s Tea had only 562 stores before it was launched, it also strengthened its confidence that “the dream must be”, and capital undoubtedly believed in this story.

received a 432-fold excess subscription in the IPO stock issuance in Hong Kong, and Naixue's Tea successfully raised a net fund of HK$4.84 billion in IPO. Perhaps it was due to the hot subscription and the dark market rose by more than 10%. Naixue set the IPO offer price at HK$19.80 per share, which is located at the high end of the guide price range of HK$17.2-19.8. The excessively high issue price leads to a break in the issue price that will be listed.

For the "first blind box stock" Pop Mart , capital believes that it has stepped into the trend of "personalized demands of young groups + consumption upgrades + IP economy drive". If this statement is difficult to understand, the metaphor of Wang Ning, founder of Pop Mart , is more vivid. "I often say that maybe we are five more years. When you look back at Pop Mart , you will feel that we are the most in China Like a company with Disney . "

" Pop Mart is just a blind box company? The situation is small, Pop Mart is the trendy toy industry Disney . "This is exactly the signal that Pop Mart wants to convey to the capital market. Disney , with a market value of over 300 billion US dollars, is their future story.

The new commercial market in 2021 is very imaginative, and has contributed to the Starbucks , Disney and eBay companies that have not been born in many years. The stories of these first stocks are also inspiring latecomers, and the rush to go public + attractive stories are the essence of IPO operations.

routines cannot hide the embarrassment of fundamentals

Observe the trend of the first stock after it was listed. Most of them do not have a plot of sustained and stable growth, and most of them even encountered a plunge.

Nomura Eco-Research analyst Sun Xiaodao told Tech Planet: "I think the first stock is not performing well. Behind it is that many similar stocks with better operating performance are not listed, or the prospects for this track are not clear. The result of this listing will be suspected of cashing out by investors. It will naturally be difficult to accept by capital."

The fact is true. Naixue's Tea is listed first than Heytea on the track. At that time, Heytea received a new round of financing, with a valuation of up to 60 billion yuan, and many investment institutions have no chance to invest. For Naixue's Tea, although it has won the title of the first stock, many investors believe that "how can a profit of more than 10 million support a valuation of 30 billion?"

But this net profit of more than 10 million is also adjusted. If Naixue’s Tea calculates the content related to the company’s financial liabilities, it still loses more than 200 million yuan. However, Naixue's Tea, which received the first stock, has acquired capital accumulation through IPO and started a large-scale store opening plan compared to Mixue Bingcheng, which is still in the countdown to submit the bill. It is still unknown whether it can rely on digital operations to achieve profitability improvement in the future.

For industries with unclear tracks, it is difficult for capital to pay for the first stock title alone.

As we all know, among all fresh food e-commerce models, the community group buying model is considered to be able to make small profits, while the forward warehouse model is considered to be difficult to make profits. As the first stock in the forward position, MissFresh does not want the market to lose confidence in it, so naturally thinks of many ways.

As a senior stock investor, Zhao Hui was also in the "routine" of MissFresh for the first time. In the new stock market, we also set up a recharge and gift of new stocks in the Daily Youxian App, which will also set up a hot spot for subscription, so as to end the subscription in advance and lock investors' funds. After listing, the issue price fell immediately, and some investors even doubted whether anyone was making a move and cutting investors' "leeks".

"Naixue, you haven't sold your daily lottery yet, and it's basically 40% off." Zhao Hui told Tech Planet that he admitted his defeat after breaking the offer, and he was helpless to be trapped by two first stocks. These two hot first stocks are also one of the stocks with the most investors in the first half of the year.

In fact, the first stock that capital is popular with is generally in a loss state before listing. It was previously believed that it was the "logic for loss to increase", but now many investors find that it is not very applicable.

Tech Planet Statistics, in 2020, the first knowledge payment stock Zhihu lost 518 million, Daily Youxian lost 1.649 billion, Hong Kong stock Xiaopeng Motors lost 3 billion, Naixue's Tea lost 202 million, and Kuaishou's adjusted net loss was 7.948 billion yuan.It is difficult for the business model to make profits, and VCs are already unable to withstand such losses.

"If you look carefully at the financial reports of many companies, you will find that it is difficult to raise funds in the primary market, so you can only go to the secondary market to go public, which is a solution to the urgent need for funds." Sun Xiaodao told Tech Planet that behind many companies grabbing the first stock, they are also striving for the survival opportunities brought by the first stock.

In that year, Youku was the first to go public in Tudou , becoming the first stock in long videos. With the help of Youku in the capital market, Tudou has gained the opportunity to develop, and the increasingly backward Tudou is forced to accept the fate of merger. Today, industries such as fresh food e-commerce, sharing economy, and milk tea are still in the quagmire, and urgently need to rush to lead the first stock, absorb more capital forces, and push their own development into the next stage.

Marketing-driven growth is difficult to last long

0 The general losses of the first stocks in the new economy are closely related to its marketing-driven growth model.

On May 7, 2021, Shuidi became the first insurance technology platform in China to log in to , New York Stock Exchange, . Although it emphasizes that it is an insurance technology company, "selling insurance" is indeed its main business, and "Shuidie Insurance" contributes the main revenue.

Water Drop’s insurance commission income in 2020 accounts for 89.1% of the total income. In order to acquire more customers, the company's marketing expenses reached 2.14 billion yuan, accounting for 70.4% of the total revenue, resulting in a 107% increase in losses last year. The growth caused by the ever-expanding losses also caused Shuidi to break the issue price on the first day of listing, with a drop of 19.17%.

According to the first quarter financial report data for 2021, Shuidi had a net loss of 370 million yuan (US$56.5 million), an increase of 208.33% from the net loss of 120 million yuan in the same period in 2020. The quagmire of loss expansion is difficult to get out of, which has led to the decline of Shuidi's stock price today, which is more than 60% lower than the issue price.

Not only water drops, but also fog core technology in the electronic cigarette field, the angel of the era in the field of orthodontics, and the streaming media platform Kuaishou are all major marketing expense players. In fact, we are not afraid of too much marketing expenses, but we are afraid of that the cost of acquiring customers in the market is also increasing greatly, resulting in a lower and lower return on investment. It is calculated that the cost of Kuaishou's single monthly active users in 2020 is 111 yuan, while the cost of monthly active users in the first quarter of 2021 has risen to 264 yuan. Kuaishou, which is mainly online business, is still the case, so it is not surprising that customer acquisition costs in other industries double.

Of course, many people think that the first stock in 2021 is a bit miserable. The main factors behind it are the impact of market and policy supervision, but the author of Snowball Hou Wuqi believes that this is the turning point in the return of Internet value. "The Internet valuation bubble burst once in 2001, and this time it was the second time that the high valuation bubble burst."

is also close to this. Barron's magazine once counted that the arithmetic average of the stock price decline of the 10 first stocks in 2020 in 2020 was 13.37%. Tech Planet calculated the average of the year-to-date decline after the first stock was listed in 2021 -38.5%.

Judging from this year's market, many first stocks have not yet bottomed out. An executive of an Internet company, Wang Feng, , is regretting his mistake. In the past month, Wang Feng invested in Wuxin Technology at the stock price of around 6 yuan. Although he believed that the first stock of the plunging e-cigarettes had no bubble, and the electronic cigarette industry has been strictly controlled by policies, which is full of negative news, Wuxin Technology's stock price still fell to around 4 yuan. The

era has completely changed. Without a bull market, no one believes in the story of the 5,000-fold price-to-earnings ratio that Wuxin Technology once set. In this new commercial stock year, every first stock that once soared will be reexamined by investors who are "feared" and the return of value investment is an inevitable trend.

Just as a user who often invests in the first stock this year but loses a lot of money said, "The environment has changed. Don't pick up coins in front of the bulldozer of the times."