text | Liu Lanchang
Taiwan’s frequent Japanese connections have recently reached a "crazy" level. I believe Tsai Ing-wen and Kishida both think that they can be unscrupulous by the boss of the United States. Even the old lady of the US House Speaker Pelosi said she wanted to visit China's treasure island, and the old Biden said she would stop her, and the fake model was fake, and the Seventh Fleet also said she wanted to escort her. So, Japan seemed to be infuriating blood and dared to do anything. former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba , former Defense Minister Yasuichi Hamada, and former Deputy Defense Minister Akihi Nagashima, appeared in Taipei before Pelosi. When Xiao Yingzi saw so many Japanese military leaders, she wanted to show off the etiquette of the royal people. So, the author asked, will Tsai Ing-wen support Tokyo’s constitutional amendment?
I believe everyone will answer and ask questions knowingly. But no, it is indeed asking questions with certainty. However, at present, Tsai Ing-wen has immediate interests in connecting with the Japanese right wing. As a descendant of the royal people, Tsai Ing-wen certainly knew that to achieve "legal Taiwan independence", we must rely on the power of the Japanese right wing. In a sense, Japan's support is more effective than the American support far away from the Atlantic, especially the Japanese and royal people on the island. Therefore, from a strategic perspective, the "Taiwan independence" forces have been deeply rooted in Japan, which can be seen from the sending of the veteran DPP figure Tse Changting to "station in Japan". Once Japan successfully revises the Peace Constitution , for the "Taiwan independence" elements, it will undoubtedly be an additional military force that can actually support. Therefore, the DPP actively supports Japan in breaking the shackles and various constraints of the "peaceful constitution".
Now, Tsai Ing-wen has been shouting "The wolf is coming" for a long time, but she is really afraid that the "wolf is coming". At the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the DPP's naval army created the topic of "Today's Ukrainian , Tomorrow's taiwan" to hype "anti-China consciousness". However, the old lady Pelosi claimed to visit Taiwan, and the People's Liberation Army was ready to fight. The "three live-fire shootings" cut through the sky, deafening. You said that the people in the "Red Building" were panicked. Live-fire shooting, just over a hundred kilometers away, the People's Liberation Army's new rocket launcher must be accurate and accurate, and saturated and saturated, even ghosts are afraid!
So, the author particularly noticed that when Tsai Ing-wen met Shigeru Ishiba, he talked about something, "He hopes to establish a new mechanism for Taiwan-Japan cooperation." Cai said that "Taiwan is the first island chain . She specifically mentioned that Shinzo Abe who died in assassination once said that "if Taiwan has something to do, it is equal to if Japan has something to do" and we should deepen cooperation with Japan. Shigeon Ishiba was very explicit and said that Taiwan and Japan still lack consensus on specific cooperation. They hope to establish an opportunity through this visit to solve the problems faced one by one, including, in advance, what kind of treaties, laws or armed forces should be used to confront them after the incident occurs, etc.
Ishibashi Data picture
The author feels that the two talks are about talking about "legal Taiwan independence", what treaties can Japan dispatch and what kind of troops to aid! Too rampant.
Therefore, the author predicts that the connection between Taiwan and Japan will inevitably increase day by day in the future. Especially after Pelosi's visit.
It is worth mentioning that the originally milder Kishida Fumio is becoming more and more right-leaning, and will be more "crawly cunning". He deliberately arranged the "state funeral" of Abe . July 22, Kishida Cabinet Meeting decided to hold Abe's funeral on September 27. On the same day, it also approved Japan's 2022 edition of " Defense White Paper ", among which the relevant Taiwan Affairs Bureau became the focus, and the number of pages increased by more than last year's edition. Even Akio Yada, the Taipei branch director of Japan's Sankei Shimbun, believes that the two things are linked together, which makes people feel that Fumio Kishida's cabinet has inherited Shinzo Abe's "anti-China" route. Akio Yadai said that September 29 is the 50th anniversary of the normalization of Japan-China relations, and related commemorative activities are under preparation. Kishida hosts Abe's funeral two days in advance, which is equivalent to conveying the coldness of "the activity of the 50th anniversary of Japan-China relations."
In fact, Kishida's right-wing transformation has long been announced to the public, and he wished he did not kneel down to Biden.The author believes that Kishida's anxiety is something that no Japanese prime minister has since World War II and cannot sleep late.
first, is the most urgent thing, the days of Fukushima nuclear sewage discharge into the sea are getting closer, and neighboring countries, especially influential countries such as China, South Korea, and Russia, still insist on opposition. The only one who can save him is Biden, but the strength of US support seems to be insufficient. This is a matter that concerns Japan's "life and death", and Kishida will also give it a "big gift".
Second, The battle for actual control of Diaoyu Islands is getting worse, Japan is getting worse, the fleet is not tonnage enough, and it can't bear it.
Third, is also the most important thing. Japan's economy is getting worse and worse, and the gap with China is getting bigger and bigger. Japan, a major foreign trade power in history, actually experienced a deficit in the first half of this year. Although Japan's total economic output is still third in the world, it is completely incomparable to China, which ranks second. In particular, China was "overtaken on the curve" on the electric car . The world's automobile powers actually imported China's electric cars, and the Kishida government's self-esteem was knocked down from Russia.
This is not enough. In this context, Japanese companies are still inseparable from the Chinese market. You said, what should Kishida do?
The author feels that Kishida is confused. At such a moment, he should not rely on the United States first, and second, he should not rush to amend the constitution. His funeral for Abe was actually a mobilization order for constitutional amendment. Third, he still has to follow the "pro-China" route. Only when China and Japan are friendly can they save Japan. Japan and Taiwan are still following the old path of militarism and die faster.
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