Direct News: Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun is visiting the United States and will deliver a speech. What kind of observations and thoughts do you have about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think that in the context of the current blue and green political struggle on the island is still fierce, cross-strait relations are in a state of frozen state, and China-US relations are sensitive and complex, whether it is Zhu Lilun's visit to the United States this time or the Kuomintang's future policy toward the United States, they can only be difficult to pass through the cracks.
can be seen from the reactions of the blue and green sides on the island before Zhu Lilun visited the United States. Before Zhu Lilun set off, the DPP suddenly took the initiative to provoke troops and questioned the crime. Its spokesperson Xie Peifen raised four sharp questions and asked Zhu Lilun to confess: First, why should we oppose the United States' raising the level of official exchanges with Taiwan, second, why should we oppose the US's enhancement of economic and trade relations with Taiwan, especially the import of American beef, third, why should we support the " 1992 Consensus " proposed by mainland China with " one country, two systems " as the core, and fourth, why should we not oppose the so-called "military threat to Taiwan" of mainland China, but oppose the US's arms sales to Taiwan.
In theory, the Kuomintang and the DPP are two equal parties on the island. At the same time, the relationship between the Kuomintang and the United States is also a matter for both sides. The DPP does not have the power to question it condescendingly, and it cannot replace the United States with rats. Therefore, we cannot help but wonder whether the DPP has replaced the US to question the Kuomintang under the instruction of the Biden administration. If this is true, it means that the US is very dissatisfied with the Kuomintang’s actions in recent years and wants to take this opportunity to give Zhu Lilun, who is interested in visiting the United States. At the same time, these four sharp problems also reflect that the DPP has regarded relations with the United States as its exclusive privilege and does not allow the Kuomintang to interfere or interfere.
It is also worth noting that in addition to the DPP's criticism, the deep blue forces within the Kuomintang also made warnings to Zhu Lilun without hesitation. A typical manifestation is that before Zhu Lilun set out to visit the United States, Zhang Yazhong , a representative figure of the deep blue force, published an article on the island, opposing Zhu Lilun’s submission of a letter of vote to the United States, especially opposing the Kuomintang’s role in the “ Indo-Pacific Strategy ” for the United States.
These all mean that for Zhu Lilun's visit to the United States and the future Kuomintang's policy toward the United States, not only did the DPP launch an insult as an American agent in front of him, but also the deep blue forces are siegeing and intercepting him. This means that in the current political environment, it is not that the Kuomintang wants to establish good relations with the United States and can stick to the cold butt of the United States with a hot face.
Next, the Kuomintang should not only look at the face of the United States, but also be careful to avoid causing a rebound from the deep blue forces within the party and avoid causing a rebound from mainland China. On the other hand, under the current political ecology where green is greater than blue on the island, if the Kuomintang blindly pleases the deep blue and cannot have a good relationship with the United States, the road to regaining the ruling power on the island will become more distant and long. If you cannot get the ruling power back, you can only be an opposition party forever. So how much role can such a Kuomintang play in the island, cross-strait relations, and peaceful development of cross-strait? These are not only worthy of deep thought by the Kuomintang, but also worth deep thought by the deep blue forces and the mainland people.
Direct news: The US State Department website updated the content on US-Taiwan relations for the second time, replacing the statement "We do not support Taiwan independence." What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I still insist that the US side deleted the statement "not supporting Taiwan independence" earlier does not mean that the US side has made its point of support for "Taiwan independence".Because as long as the US also recognizes the historic documents of the three joint communiqués of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States and publicly recognizes the "one China" policy, it actually means that the US does not support "Taiwan independence". The US statement that "does not support Taiwan's independence" is just a prominent emphasis and affirmation of this position.
However, we should also see that the US side’s earlier deletion of the statement “not supporting Taiwan independence” means that they not only took a vague position on the “one China” policy, but also took a similar vague position on the “Taiwan independence” issue. It can easily make people with ulterior motives interpret it as “the United States does not oppose Taiwan independence”, and then sends a wrong signal to the “Taiwan independence” forces on the island, encouraging the “Taiwan independence” forces to take further desperate actions.
From this perspective, I think it is still very necessary and positive to put back the statement of "we do not support Taiwan independence" by the US State Department website. First of all, it once again blocked the way out of the "Taiwan independence forces" with a very clear attitude, allowing them to dispel their fantasies. Secondly, "Taiwan independence" is the only fuse for the future war in the Taiwan Strait, because according to the "Anti-Secession Law" formulated by mainland China, only when a major "Taiwan independence" incident occurs will mainland China be forced to resolve the Taiwan issue by non-peaceful means. Therefore, the United States' position of "not supporting Taiwan's independence" will help eliminate the hidden dangers of war in the Taiwan Strait in the future.
It is also worth noting that in the previous speech on China policy delivered by US Secretary of State Blinken , the three tricks toward China policy formulated by the Biden administration last year, namely "competition, cooperation and confrontation", were cut off the most provocative "confrontation" trick. So, after Blinken reiterated in his speech that "the United States does not support Taiwan independence", the US State Department once again put this statement back on the official website. I think, without a doubt, all these mean that the Biden administration is releasing some goodwill to China. Next, we need to closely observe whether this is a precursor to the fact that Sino-US relations are about to break the ice and thaw.
Author丨Liu Heping, Shenzhen TV's special commentator "Live broadcast of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"
