On January 10, 1946, the first first session of UN General Assembly was held in London, and representatives of 51 founding members of the United Nations attended, which means that the most representative international organization after " World War II " officially began to operate.
77 years have passed, and United Nations already has 193 member states, but the international community has reached a general consensus: 21st century global geopolitical changes are becoming more and more complex, and the threat of conflict is increasing. The United Nations must carry out reforms, otherwise it will fall into "marginalization" in the challenge.
Against this background, the 77th United Nations General Assembly opened in New York on September 13. United Nations Secretary-General Guterres and UN General Assembly Chairman Kleshi both said that the international situation is at a "turning point" .
As expected, just in the past two days, the world has changed again, and the smoke of gunpowder in Central Asia has resurfaced, and the war situation between Russia and Ukraine may lead to the "three wars".
local time on September 14, local time, Russian media quoted Kyrgyzstan border department as saying that Tajikistan border guards opened fire after being asked to leave the border "combat position", and the Kyrgyzstan border guards immediately responded with weapons.
According to foreign media reports, the border departments of the two countries have conducted emergency communication, claiming that measures will be taken to prevent the situation from escalating. But as of now, the Tajikan side and the Kyrgyzstan side have not reported the specific situation, and it is not clear whether there are casualties.
In fact, both countries in Central Asia have always had territorial conflicts between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The root cause is that both countries were once the Soviet Union's franchise republic , but after the collapse of the Soviet Union in in 1991, the two countries that have reindependent have never reached a consensus on border demarcation.
. On April 28 last year, the border conflict between the two countries suddenly escalated, and residents of both sides fought for to compete for local water resources . The border guards of the two countries exchanged fire, and it was not until April 30 that the ceasefire was announced, killing 55 people in total.
But the problem has not been resolved. Although the two sides agreed to jointly carry out joint security controls on the disputed border, , armed conflict broke out in May and July 2021, January, March and June 2022, during which civilians or border guards died.
It is obvious that the conflict caused by this historical problem is becoming a wound between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and it is bleeding so that the relationship between the two countries is difficult to reconcile. also gives external forces the opportunity to intervene and disrupt the situation.
, especially , Tajikistan, , has carried out a lot of military cooperation with , the United States, , but most of them are named "anti-terrorism". Therefore, Kyrgyzstan could only find foreign aid, and soon hit it off with , Russia, which was worried about Central Asia being infiltrated by the United States.
Since then, the border conflict between Tajikistan and Jilin has become the chessboard for the game between the United States and Russia.
Because of this, the outbreak of border conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is likely to be the result of the US instigating behind the scenes. As for the time point when this round of conflict broke out - September 14, it is obviously not aimless, but rather considering based on the following 3 points.
1, SCO will hold a summit in Uzbekistan , and both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are founding members. , and the organization's influence has become increasingly greater. Against the backdrop of the increasing turbulence of the international situation, leaders of SCO member states will meet face to face, which will inevitably strengthen the unity of all parties. This is exactly what the United States is worried about.
2, the war situation in Russia and Ukraine has undergone major changes , the Ukrainian army launched a large counterattack and has recovered a large area of territory, but the Russian army is retreating sharply. As the situation reverses, Russia needs to make targeted arrangements, and Moscow will also face major tests. You must not be distracted by at this time.
3, For similar reasons, Armenian and Azerbaijan , which are also franchises in the former Soviet Union, broke out in conflict yesterday. This conflict is the same as the Tajikistan border conflict that occurred today, and will greatly restrain Russia's energy. It is undoubtedly the external forces taking the opportunity to catch fire.
It has to be said that as the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continue to overflow , one powder barrel after another is quickly ignited, and the global geopolitical structure is facing a new round of "big reshuffle".
Also on September 13, the Ukrainian Presidential Office issued a draft Ukrainian security agreement. According to Ukraine's idea, it should sign the "Kiev Security Treaty" , and at least 12 countries including the United States, Britain, Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Turkey, and at least 12 countries can participate as guarantee countries.
Regarding this agreement, you only need to grasp the following 3 key points .
first, Ukrainian in "Lion Big Opening".
The so-called "Kiev Security Treaty" almost completely negates a series of conditions proposed by Russia, such as stipulating military "preventive measures", measures taken immediately when Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity are subject to new violations, and the agreement to provide Ukraine with a modern air defense system .
There is no doubt that these contents are completely in conflict with the first phase of the "Special Military Operation" announced by Russia. . Russia wants to "demilitarize" Ukraine and significantly reduce Ukraine's combat potential, but Ukraine now not only needs to retain military capabilities, but also strengthen its military combat power.
It is obvious that the results achieved by Ukraine's major counterattack have made the government full of confidence.
But be aware that, as US President Biden said on the 13th, although the Ukrainian army has made "significant progress" in the counterattack, it is difficult to judge that the situation in Russia and Ukraine has reached a "turning point" . In other words, Washington's judgment on the situation is not as positive as Kiev , and it is too early to talk about the post-war agreement.
Second, Ukraine still has not learned its lesson.
Look at the list of guarantee countries listed in this treaty. is all countries that provide assistance to Ukraine. shows that the choice of Zelensky government is biased. But the question is, can the so-called "protective country" system in really protect Ukraine?
In 1994, Ukraine, Russia, the United States and Britain signed the "Budapest Security Assurance Memorandum". at the cost of Ukraine destroying all nuclear weapons in exchange for the commitment of Russia, the United States and Britain to guarantee the integrity of Ukraine's sovereignty.
can be from 014 Crimea crisis to the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is responsible for launching the war, Britain and the United States are responsible for providing weapons but refuse to send troops. has no security guarantee country fulfills its promise . At present, it is really not necessary for Ukraine to still place its national sovereignty on the protection of other countries.
Third, Russia will never give up.
Regarding Ukraine's proposal, the vice chairman of the Russian Federation Security Conference Medvedev responded immediately, claiming that the proposal of the treaty is the "prelude to the Third World War" , because the content of security guarantees is almost equivalent to the content of NATO "Collective Defense Terms" .
In addition, Medvedev also warned that if NATO continues to provide weapons to Ukraine, then "military actions between Russia and Ukraine will sooner or later develop to another level" , and both sides will take unpredictable actions.
This is not an alarmist Russia is exaggerating, because Moscow's measures are relatively restrained, and there is no comprehensive war mobilization at present, and the Russian army is not allowed to destroy Ukraine's civil infrastructure.
But in short, the possibility of the parties to sign the "Kiev Security Treaty" is not high , and the Zelensky government must be clear about this. In this case, Ukraine still put forward this agreement, indicating that the Kiev regime has other plans for .
After all, the above guarantee countries should sign this treaty, but out of fear of Russia, these countries cannot sign this treaty. Therefore, the treaty of will become a bargaining chip for Ukraine, and the Zelensky government can also seek benefits from the above-mentioned guarantee countries one by one.
and wait and see.
