directory
, national steel prices on July 18!
. Price adjustment: 60! 80! 21 steel mills adjusted their prices!
. Forecast: Steel prices will still...
, 2022 crude steel supply and demand balance logic deduction and estimate analysis
, National steel prices on July 18!
Introduction: According to the data information of China Steel Network on July 18, steel prices rose and fell today. The futures spiral continues to fluctuate strongly, and the market price maintains the weekend price, and the transaction is acceptable, but as the current downstream demand is difficult to support the price to reverse completely, considering that coke has dropped by 200, it is expected that the price will enter a slight fluctuation after the rise in the near future.
July 18th building materials prices: rising and falling; Today's building materials prices have risen and fall, with a range of 10-120. The futures spiral continues to fluctuate strongly, the market price maintains the weekend price, and the transaction is still acceptable. At present, the market demand recovery is still poor. Steel mills have successively stopped production and maintenance, and supply is gradually decreasing. With the recent price increase, merchants' pessimism has been alleviated and is expected to fluctuate tomorrow;
on July 18th hot rolled coil price: the main behavior; Today, the national hot rolled is mainly on the top, with a range of 30-150, the current roll remains red and fluctuates, the market sentiment improves, merchants are still mainly on shipments, but the bottom price is relatively strong, the market transactions have improved, and the current cost is Support is acceptable, downstream demand has not yet recovered. Considering that the performance of the relevant futures is still acceptable, it is expected that the market price will be stable and strong;
on July 18th cold rolled coil price: stable and strong; Today, cold rolled nationwide is stable and strong, with an amplitude of 20-100 yuan. Driven by futures and raw materials, merchants slightly raised the price-test transactions, but the market's high-level resource acceptance ability is poor, and the overall The price of the medium and thick plates on July 18: Mainly rise and fall;
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2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 It is expected to maintain stability and organize;
July 18th profile price: weak running; today's model price is weak running, with a range of 30-100, demand continues to be weak, and some regions make up for the weekend at the beginning of today's weekly decline, demand continues to be weak, market transactions are light, down The pressure on the game is obvious, and manufacturers continue to wait and see;
July 18th pipe price: mainly decline; national welded pipe fell overall today, with an amplitude of 10-80, futures fluctuated and kept running red, and the market mentality was still relatively panicked. Although the price of pipes has been raised in a repair manner, the market demand is weak in the off-season. There are both rises and falls in pipe prices today. Traders are generally pessimistic in their mentality, and overall demand is difficult to recover, and actual transactions are bleak. It is expected to be lowered in a stable and moderate manner.
(China Steel Network)
. Price adjustment: 60! 80! 21 steel mills adjusted their prices!
According to data from China Steel Network Information Research Institute, , a total of 21 steel mills have adjusted their prices today, of which : has been raised by 8 companies, accounting for 38.1%, with a price adjustment range of 10-60 yuan/ Tons, the highest increase in was Dagang Chongqing Building Materials; lowered 10 companies, accounting for 47.6%, with a price adjustment of 20-80 yuan/ton; fell the largest decrease in Hongtai I-Tianjin . has stable 3 companies, accounting for 14.3%. specific price adjustment details are as follows:
Steel mill price adjustment
Today, a total of 10 steel mills for building materials have been released, of which:
has been raised by 8 companies, accounting for 80%, with a price adjustment range of 10-60 yuan/ton.
downgraded 1 company, accounting for 10%, with a price adjustment of 20 yuan/ton .
is stable, accounting for 10%.
Today, 11 steel mills have adjusted prices for plates, shapes and pipes. Among them:
has been reduced by 9 companies, accounting for 81.8%, with a price adjustment range of 30-80 yuan/ton .
stable 2 companies, accounting for 18.2%.
Today's steel mill brief analysis
Steel futures market price
On July 18, the domestic steel market price stopped falling and rose, and the ex-factory price of Tangshan ordinary square billets remained stable at 3,500 yuan/ton. Black futures strengthened significantly, the market mentality improved, and transactions increased significantly.
html On the 218th, black futures rose sharply. The closing price of the main contract of futures spirals was 3780 and rose 2.05%. DEA and DIF were both downward. The RSI three-line indicator was at 32-33, running along the lower track of Bollinger Band .
htmlOn the 218th, four steel mills raised the ex-factory price of construction steel 10-50 yuan/ton.
market price of four major varieties of steel
Construction steel: On July 18, the average price of 20mm three-level earthquake-resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 4,008 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Driven by the sharp rise in steel billets over the weekend and the futures screws, the mainstream domestic construction steel prices rose in the morning. From the perspective of transactions, the market mentality has improved, the trading atmosphere is strong, speculative demand has rebounded, and transactions have improved significantly throughout the day. In the short term, recent negative news has gradually been released, and the rebound of billets and futures spirals has boosted market confidence to a certain extent, and spot prices have rebounded oversold. However, it still needs to be treated with caution in the short term, and current market demand has not improved significantly.
Hot Rolled Coil: On July 18, the average price of 4.75mm hot rolled Coil in 24 major cities across the country was 3,864 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of demand, due to the domestic epidemic and high temperature and rainfall seasons, the overall downstream manufacturing industry has not been actively acquired, and there has been no significant improvement in demand. In terms of supply, due to the current continuous losses, steel mills have forced to increase the production reduction of blast furnace maintenance, but the downward trend in raw materials has made the overall production reduction of finished materials less than expected, and the current supply and demand contradiction is prominent. The market is sluggish, the pressure to destock is too high, and the sentiment to actively destock is too high. Downstream demand remains weak, and wait-and-see sentiment is relatively strong.
cold rolled plate rolls: On July 18, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolls in 24 major cities across the country was 4398 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's hot futures market stopped falling and rebounded, and some traders were in a high mood for price increases. At present, the market inventory pressure is relatively high, and the epidemic is scattered and sporadic. Some areas are in the lockdown stage, and logistics are affected. Overall market demand is relatively weak, and supply and demand contradictions still exist. Although prices have risen slightly, most traders are still not optimistic about the future market .
Medium and thick plate: On July 18, the average price of 20mm general boards in 24 major cities across the country was 4,239 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The rise in East China today is large, mainly because last week, the was obviously oversold . After the futures rebounded, spot goods were quickly recovered, while the rest of the regions rose slightly, and the overall transactions improved. The current output of steel mills is still relatively high. In terms of demand, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has been mobilized since the weekend, but since there are not many terminal orders, it is necessary to continue to observe whether it can continue to maintain it.
raw fuel market price
Imported ore: On July 18, the import ore market in Tangshan area continued to rise, and the trading atmosphere seemed deserted. The imported mineral market has been on the rise throughout the day, up 15-35 yuan/ton from the previous working day, with PB powder price quotation of 720-725 yuan/ton, mixed powder price quotation of 650 yuan/ton, 60.5% goldbuba powder price quotation of 685 yuan/ton, and Newman block price quotation of 830 yuan/ton. For traders, affected by market sentiment, the enthusiasm for quotations in the afternoon is still acceptable, and most traders have strong willingness to ship; for steel mills, they still maintain the replenishment of warehouses on demand, and the prices of imported ore rose at the beginning of the week, and most of them are mainly waiting and watching in the afternoon. As of press time, Tangshan area learned that the transactions include: Jingtanggang PB powder at 708 yuan/ton, Caofeidian 61% Jinbuba powder at 687 yuan/ton.
Coke: July 18, the coke market was running weakly. Coke companies have started construction as a whole, and the inventory on the site continues to operate at a low level. Coke companies have suffered serious profit losses after three rounds of coke prices. It is expected that production restrictions will be strengthened again, affecting the further contraction of coke supply. In terms of steel mills, the blast furnace of steel mills is generally started, and the overall demand is weak, and the procurement rhythm is more controlled. The profits of steel mills are still under pressure and downward, and the market is still pessimistic. Steel mills are still willing to reduce production and maintenance.
Scrap steel: July 18, today the scrap steel prices in mainstream steel mills were mainly adjusted, while some steel mills rose slightly. Today, the snail turned red, and the trend of scrap steel also rose. This phenomenon is a normal rebound after oversold. Some steel mills are considering taking the lead in low-cost scrap steel supplies. Even if the increase is not large, it can be seen that market entities are still pessimistic and cautious. The overall intention of steel mills to raise prices is insufficient, and in this stage, the market has sufficient momentum for rising prices, but the range and speed are more conservative than before.
scrap steel price adjustment information
My Steel Network News: According to my Steel APP, on July 18, as of press time, a total of 25 steel mills raised the purchase price of scrap steel and 1 lowered it.
▎North China Region
July 19th [Tianjin Tiangang United] increased by 50 , execution price: reinforced bar briquette 2580, flower iron briquette 2 thick or above without galvanization 2540, side wire briquette 1 thick or above without galvanization 2530, packaging belt briquette 1 thick or above without galvanization 2530, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 19 [Old East China Sea in Tangshan, Hebei] is increased by 50 : high-quality A2560, high-quality B2540, high-quality C2520, heavy A2500, heavy B2460, heavy C2420, cold plate small material 2480, 08 aluminum small material 2420, short ruler material 2360, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Old East China Sea in Tangshan, Hebei] is increased by 50 : high-quality A2510, high-quality B2490, high-quality C2470, heavy A2450, heavy B2410, heavy C2370, cold plate small material 2430, 08 aluminum small material 2370, short ruler material 2310, based on this price, the policy remains unchanged, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Hebei Tangshan Donghai Special Steel] is increased by 60 . After adjustment: Heavy B2520, heavy A2560, high-quality steel 2590, high-quality steel 2650, light and thin materials. Explosion-fried, heavy fines for adulteration, rejection with grease, stop collection of 4 thicker ones, reminder: National VI and above models enter and exit the factory normally, and it is strictly prohibited to enter the factory by using National VI or changing the front.
-18 [ Tangshan, Hebei 3Tang Baosheng ] up-registered 130 l3, Execution price: first-class crushing material 2630, second-class crushing material 2480, short ruler shear 1-2mm2480, 3-5mm2580, 6 or more 2610, 8 or more, galvanized wire tiles 2440, wire tiles 2340, bread iron 2540, pig iron radiator 2540, engine body 2470, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18th [Hebei Tangshan Donghua Steel, Chunxing Special Steel] heavy A is increased by 20 , execution is 2,450 yuan, high-quality is up to 120 yuan.
-18 [Zhengfeng, Tangshan, Hebei] upwards by 100 , scrap steel 2-3 thick 2530, 3-5 thick 2580, 6 thick 26 10, 8 thickness or more, 2630 small steel bar press 2600 new strip wire 2440 new cold plate press 2440 new wire press 2340 new galvanized small material 2540 first-class crushing material 2630 second-class crushing material 2480, whole-purpose sales 2180, pig iron radiator, bread iron 2540, engine body 2470, first-class shear 2510, second-class shear 2490, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Jinzhou, Yutian, Tangshan, Hebei] Latest price: 1-2 thick 2480, 3-5 thick 2580, 6 thick 2610, 8 thick 2630, steel head 2630, steel bar block 2600, new cold plate small material 2540, new galvanized small material 2540, 08 aluminum loose flakes 2460, special crushing material 2680, first-class crushing material 2630, pig iron radiator 2540, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Hebei Qinhuangdao Baigong] upwards by 100 : Ordinary scrap steel A2730, eight thick, ordinary scrap steel B2650, four thick, special grade crushed material 2690, thickness ≥2.0mm, no galvanized material, maximum length 200mm, first-level punching parts 2620, more than two thicknesses, first-level cut head 2780, new four-thickness or more, threaded steel cutting head 2870, first-level bean 5 thickness 2870, second-level bean 2 thickness 2820, shavings 2310, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Hebei Handan Xinjin Steel Plant] is increased by 30, and now it is implemented: round steel head, billet head, hammer head 3020, angle groove 3020, steel plate scrap material 3050, flange 3020, small pipe head 3020, large pipe head 3020, tax included, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Hebei Canggang Group] increased by 100 : Gantry shearing material 2300, 1-2 thick 2360, 2-3 thick scrap steel 2410, 3-5 thick scrap steel 2470, 6 thick scrap steel 2500, 8 thick 2540, steel head 2590, steel bar small block 2500, flange chip 2370, steel planing chip 2270, radiator 2330, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18th from 18:00 [Hebei Cangzhou Dalipu] scrap steel purchase price execution: 4 thick 2510, 2-4 thick medium 2410, 1-2 thick general material 2260, 1-2 thick 2235, 2680 steel bar cutter head, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Joining] Scrap steel execution price: reinforced bar block 2625, flower iron block 2634, medium-sized category 1 10 thickness 2634, medium-sized category 2 6 thickness 2598, heavy-duty category 3 15 thickness 2634, heavy-duty category 4 20 thickness 2647, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
▎East China Region
July 19th [Jiangsu Lianyungang Yaxin Steel] up to 50 : 1. Steel sheet material, mold steel 2500; 2. 12 mm thick high-quality heavy waste A2470; 3. 6 mm thick heavy waste B2380, 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2 Rejection is rejected below 3 mm thickness, and the car surface and bottom are of different grades, so it is treated as adulterated. Specifications: 50X50.
July 18 [Jiangsu Lianyungang Yaxin Steel] increased by 50 : steel sheet material, mold steel, price 2450; 12 mm thick high-quality heavy waste A, price 2420; 6 mm thick heavy waste B, price 2330; 4 mm thick medium waste new material, price 2200-2230. Excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Jiangsu Yangzhou China Airlines] is increased by 100 . After adjustment: new steel sheet material 2440, excellent weight 2410, horseshoe 2400, steel bar head 2410, pig iron 2300-2350, heavy waste 2300-2350, fine furnace material 2220-2260, wire rope 1800, crushed steel shavings 2150-2200, crushed CNC shavings 2010-2080, crushed ordinary shavings 1960-2010, excluding tax.
July 18 [Jiangsu Yangzhou Qinyou] is increased by 50 . After adjustment, the execution price is: steel bar pellets, punches 2500, steel sheet material 12500, mold steel 2500, heavy scrap 22430, machine pig iron 2400, silicon steel sheet 2420, steam cutting material 2450, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Jiangsu Zhenjiang Hongtai] increased by 100 , after adjustment execution price: new steel sheet material 2390, high-weight, steel head 2360, horseshoe 2320, steel bar block 2290, cold rolling, hot rolling, and punching 2300, silicon steel sheet 2250, heavy waste 2300, crushing material 2010-2250, shearing material 2160-2190, steel shavings 1890-1940, tax excluding.
July 18 [Jiangsu Xugang Group] increased by 30 , after adjustment: high-quality steel plate 2610, steel sheet material 2560, fine furnace material 12560, furnace material 2440, high-quality heavy waste 2560, heavy waste 2460, wheel hub 2290, steel bar block 2460, steel plate block 2510, steel bar cutter 2580, roller sheared steel bar cutter 2500, see the price list (stop collection of crushed raw materials), excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Shandong Dezhou Jinguan (Lihui)] is increased by 50 . After adjustment, the new sheet is more than 6mm and 2570, steel bar cut granules 2620, heavy waste 5-6 thick 2530, medium waste 3-4 thick 2470-2510, shock absorbing plate 2490, scissors and agricultural iron 2320-2410, iron chips 2210, chip blocks 2270, machine iron 2310, primary crushing material 2490, secondary crushing material 2240, tax excluding tax. Unit: RMB/ton.
July 18 [Shandong Laigang Yongfeng] Scrap steel procurement notice: Lingang opens and collects three-level scrap steel I (particle steel) 1920, hot melt briquetting 2005, unit: yuan/ton, excluding tax.
-19 [Fujian Xinwuhang] All scrap steel unified 1 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0
▎Central China
-18 [Henan Minyuan Steel] up 30 : Factory scrap 2560-2630, silicon steel sheet 2420, thin sheet scrap steel 2420, special grade material 2630, horseshoe 2530, refined scrap steel 2410, heavy scrap 2490-2610, general scrap steel 2230-2360, bean whipping 2560-2630, steel bar cut head 2630, steel bar head 2510-2610, steel bar block 2460, unprocessed brute material 2080, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
▎ South China
July 18th [Guangdong Heyuan East Guangdong] scrap steel price 40 : heavy waste is 2,400 yuan, cutting material is 2,370 yuan, excluding tax.
July 18 [Guangdong Heyuan Longchuan Hanghui Steel Industry] is increased by 40 , pig iron heavy scrap 2380-2400, industrial punching scrap 2350-2380, air cutting material (60 cm) 2340-2370. Tax excluded, please note that it is prohibited to carry seals and other dangerous goods.
July 18 [Guangdong Jinshenglan] increased by 40 : steel bar cut 2600, pure steel bar head 2540, steel bar pressing blocks stopped collecting, all color scraps 2520, forging material 2520, high heavy scrap steel 2520, heavy scrap one 2480-2500, heavy scrap two 2450 medium scrap 2350-2400 shearing material 2140-2190 punch 2460, all color car material 2360-2410 pig iron 2420-2470, steel shavings and CNC 2090-2140, ordinary shavings and debris are stopped collecting, excluding tax. directory , national steel prices on July 18!
. Price adjustment: 60! 80! 21 steel mills adjusted their prices!
. Forecast: Steel prices will still...
, 2022 crude steel supply and demand balance logic deduction and estimate analysis
, National steel prices on July 18!
Introduction: According to the data information of China Steel Network on July 18, steel prices rose and fell today. The futures spiral continues to fluctuate strongly, and the market price maintains the weekend price, and the transaction is acceptable, but as the current downstream demand is difficult to support the price to reverse completely, considering that coke has dropped by 200, it is expected that the price will enter a slight fluctuation after the rise in the near future.
July 18th building materials prices: rising and falling; Today's building materials prices have risen and fall, with a range of 10-120. The futures spiral continues to fluctuate strongly, the market price maintains the weekend price, and the transaction is still acceptable. At present, the market demand recovery is still poor. Steel mills have successively stopped production and maintenance, and supply is gradually decreasing. With the recent price increase, merchants' pessimism has been alleviated and is expected to fluctuate tomorrow;
on July 18th hot rolled coil price: the main behavior; Today, the national hot rolled is mainly on the top, with a range of 30-150, the current roll remains red and fluctuates, the market sentiment improves, merchants are still mainly on shipments, but the bottom price is relatively strong, the market transactions have improved, and the current cost is Support is acceptable, downstream demand has not yet recovered. Considering that the performance of the relevant futures is still acceptable, it is expected that the market price will be stable and strong;
on July 18th cold rolled coil price: stable and strong; Today, cold rolled nationwide is stable and strong, with an amplitude of 20-100 yuan. Driven by futures and raw materials, merchants slightly raised the price-test transactions, but the market's high-level resource acceptance ability is poor, and the overall The price of the medium and thick plates on July 18: Mainly rise and fall;
.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0 3
2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 It is expected to maintain stability and organize;
July 18th profile price: weak running; today's model price is weak running, with a range of 30-100, demand continues to be weak, and some regions make up for the weekend at the beginning of today's weekly decline, demand continues to be weak, market transactions are light, down The pressure on the game is obvious, and manufacturers continue to wait and see;
July 18th pipe price: mainly decline; national welded pipe fell overall today, with an amplitude of 10-80, futures fluctuated and kept running red, and the market mentality was still relatively panicked. Although the price of pipes has been raised in a repair manner, the market demand is weak in the off-season. There are both rises and falls in pipe prices today. Traders are generally pessimistic in their mentality, and overall demand is difficult to recover, and actual transactions are bleak. It is expected to be lowered in a stable and moderate manner.
(China Steel Network)
. Price adjustment: 60! 80! 21 steel mills adjusted their prices!
According to data from China Steel Network Information Research Institute, , a total of 21 steel mills have adjusted their prices today, of which : has been raised by 8 companies, accounting for 38.1%, with a price adjustment range of 10-60 yuan/ Tons, the highest increase in was Dagang Chongqing Building Materials; lowered 10 companies, accounting for 47.6%, with a price adjustment of 20-80 yuan/ton; fell the largest decrease in Hongtai I-Tianjin . has stable 3 companies, accounting for 14.3%. specific price adjustment details are as follows:
Steel mill price adjustment
Today, a total of 10 steel mills for building materials have been released, of which:
has been raised by 8 companies, accounting for 80%, with a price adjustment range of 10-60 yuan/ton.
downgraded 1 company, accounting for 10%, with a price adjustment of 20 yuan/ton .
is stable, accounting for 10%.
Today, 11 steel mills have adjusted prices for plates, shapes and pipes. Among them:
has been reduced by 9 companies, accounting for 81.8%, with a price adjustment range of 30-80 yuan/ton .
stable 2 companies, accounting for 18.2%.
Today's steel mill brief analysis
Steel futures market price
On July 18, the domestic steel market price stopped falling and rose, and the ex-factory price of Tangshan ordinary square billets remained stable at 3,500 yuan/ton. Black futures strengthened significantly, the market mentality improved, and transactions increased significantly.
html On the 218th, black futures rose sharply. The closing price of the main contract of futures spirals was 3780 and rose 2.05%. DEA and DIF were both downward. The RSI three-line indicator was at 32-33, running along the lower track of Bollinger Band .
htmlOn the 218th, four steel mills raised the ex-factory price of construction steel 10-50 yuan/ton.
market price of four major varieties of steel
Construction steel: On July 18, the average price of 20mm three-level earthquake-resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 4,008 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Driven by the sharp rise in steel billets over the weekend and the futures screws, the mainstream domestic construction steel prices rose in the morning. From the perspective of transactions, the market mentality has improved, the trading atmosphere is strong, speculative demand has rebounded, and transactions have improved significantly throughout the day. In the short term, recent negative news has gradually been released, and the rebound of billets and futures spirals has boosted market confidence to a certain extent, and spot prices have rebounded oversold. However, it still needs to be treated with caution in the short term, and current market demand has not improved significantly.
Hot Rolled Coil: On July 18, the average price of 4.75mm hot rolled Coil in 24 major cities across the country was 3,864 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of demand, due to the domestic epidemic and high temperature and rainfall seasons, the overall downstream manufacturing industry has not been actively acquired, and there has been no significant improvement in demand. In terms of supply, due to the current continuous losses, steel mills have forced to increase the production reduction of blast furnace maintenance, but the downward trend in raw materials has made the overall production reduction of finished materials less than expected, and the current supply and demand contradiction is prominent. The market is sluggish, the pressure to destock is too high, and the sentiment to actively destock is too high. Downstream demand remains weak, and wait-and-see sentiment is relatively strong.
cold rolled plate rolls: On July 18, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolls in 24 major cities across the country was 4398 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's hot futures market stopped falling and rebounded, and some traders were in a high mood for price increases. At present, the market inventory pressure is relatively high, and the epidemic is scattered and sporadic. Some areas are in the lockdown stage, and logistics are affected. Overall market demand is relatively weak, and supply and demand contradictions still exist. Although prices have risen slightly, most traders are still not optimistic about the future market .
Medium and thick plate: On July 18, the average price of 20mm general boards in 24 major cities across the country was 4,239 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The rise in East China today is large, mainly because last week, the was obviously oversold . After the futures rebounded, spot goods were quickly recovered, while the rest of the regions rose slightly, and the overall transactions improved. The current output of steel mills is still relatively high. In terms of demand, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has been mobilized since the weekend, but since there are not many terminal orders, it is necessary to continue to observe whether it can continue to maintain it.
raw fuel market price
Imported ore: On July 18, the import ore market in Tangshan area continued to rise, and the trading atmosphere seemed deserted. The imported mineral market has been on the rise throughout the day, up 15-35 yuan/ton from the previous working day, with PB powder price quotation of 720-725 yuan/ton, mixed powder price quotation of 650 yuan/ton, 60.5% goldbuba powder price quotation of 685 yuan/ton, and Newman block price quotation of 830 yuan/ton. For traders, affected by market sentiment, the enthusiasm for quotations in the afternoon is still acceptable, and most traders have strong willingness to ship; for steel mills, they still maintain the replenishment of warehouses on demand, and the prices of imported ore rose at the beginning of the week, and most of them are mainly waiting and watching in the afternoon. As of press time, Tangshan area learned that the transactions include: Jingtanggang PB powder at 708 yuan/ton, Caofeidian 61% Jinbuba powder at 687 yuan/ton.
Coke: July 18, the coke market was running weakly. Coke companies have started construction as a whole, and the inventory on the site continues to operate at a low level. Coke companies have suffered serious profit losses after three rounds of coke prices. It is expected that production restrictions will be strengthened again, affecting the further contraction of coke supply. In terms of steel mills, the blast furnace of steel mills is generally started, and the overall demand is weak, and the procurement rhythm is more controlled. The profits of steel mills are still under pressure and downward, and the market is still pessimistic. Steel mills are still willing to reduce production and maintenance.
Scrap steel: July 18, today the scrap steel prices in mainstream steel mills were mainly adjusted, while some steel mills rose slightly. Today, the snail turned red, and the trend of scrap steel also rose. This phenomenon is a normal rebound after oversold. Some steel mills are considering taking the lead in low-cost scrap steel supplies. Even if the increase is not large, it can be seen that market entities are still pessimistic and cautious. The overall intention of steel mills to raise prices is insufficient, and in this stage, the market has sufficient momentum for rising prices, but the range and speed are more conservative than before.
scrap steel price adjustment information
My Steel Network News: According to my Steel APP, on July 18, as of press time, a total of 25 steel mills raised the purchase price of scrap steel and 1 lowered it.
▎North China Region
July 19th [Tianjin Tiangang United] increased by 50 , execution price: reinforced bar briquette 2580, flower iron briquette 2 thick or above without galvanization 2540, side wire briquette 1 thick or above without galvanization 2530, packaging belt briquette 1 thick or above without galvanization 2530, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 19 [Old East China Sea in Tangshan, Hebei] is increased by 50 : high-quality A2560, high-quality B2540, high-quality C2520, heavy A2500, heavy B2460, heavy C2420, cold plate small material 2480, 08 aluminum small material 2420, short ruler material 2360, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Old East China Sea in Tangshan, Hebei] is increased by 50 : high-quality A2510, high-quality B2490, high-quality C2470, heavy A2450, heavy B2410, heavy C2370, cold plate small material 2430, 08 aluminum small material 2370, short ruler material 2310, based on this price, the policy remains unchanged, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Hebei Tangshan Donghai Special Steel] is increased by 60 . After adjustment: Heavy B2520, heavy A2560, high-quality steel 2590, high-quality steel 2650, light and thin materials. Explosion-fried, heavy fines for adulteration, rejection with grease, stop collection of 4 thicker ones, reminder: National VI and above models enter and exit the factory normally, and it is strictly prohibited to enter the factory by using National VI or changing the front.
-18 [ Tangshan, Hebei 3Tang Baosheng ] up-registered 130 l3, Execution price: first-class crushing material 2630, second-class crushing material 2480, short ruler shear 1-2mm2480, 3-5mm2580, 6 or more 2610, 8 or more, galvanized wire tiles 2440, wire tiles 2340, bread iron 2540, pig iron radiator 2540, engine body 2470, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18th [Hebei Tangshan Donghua Steel, Chunxing Special Steel] heavy A is increased by 20 , execution is 2,450 yuan, high-quality is up to 120 yuan.
-18 [Zhengfeng, Tangshan, Hebei] upwards by 100 , scrap steel 2-3 thick 2530, 3-5 thick 2580, 6 thick 26 10, 8 thickness or more, 2630 small steel bar press 2600 new strip wire 2440 new cold plate press 2440 new wire press 2340 new galvanized small material 2540 first-class crushing material 2630 second-class crushing material 2480, whole-purpose sales 2180, pig iron radiator, bread iron 2540, engine body 2470, first-class shear 2510, second-class shear 2490, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Jinzhou, Yutian, Tangshan, Hebei] Latest price: 1-2 thick 2480, 3-5 thick 2580, 6 thick 2610, 8 thick 2630, steel head 2630, steel bar block 2600, new cold plate small material 2540, new galvanized small material 2540, 08 aluminum loose flakes 2460, special crushing material 2680, first-class crushing material 2630, pig iron radiator 2540, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Hebei Qinhuangdao Baigong] upwards by 100 : Ordinary scrap steel A2730, eight thick, ordinary scrap steel B2650, four thick, special grade crushed material 2690, thickness ≥2.0mm, no galvanized material, maximum length 200mm, first-level punching parts 2620, more than two thicknesses, first-level cut head 2780, new four-thickness or more, threaded steel cutting head 2870, first-level bean 5 thickness 2870, second-level bean 2 thickness 2820, shavings 2310, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Hebei Handan Xinjin Steel Plant] is increased by 30, and now it is implemented: round steel head, billet head, hammer head 3020, angle groove 3020, steel plate scrap material 3050, flange 3020, small pipe head 3020, large pipe head 3020, tax included, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Hebei Canggang Group] increased by 100 : Gantry shearing material 2300, 1-2 thick 2360, 2-3 thick scrap steel 2410, 3-5 thick scrap steel 2470, 6 thick scrap steel 2500, 8 thick 2540, steel head 2590, steel bar small block 2500, flange chip 2370, steel planing chip 2270, radiator 2330, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18th from 18:00 [Hebei Cangzhou Dalipu] scrap steel purchase price execution: 4 thick 2510, 2-4 thick medium 2410, 1-2 thick general material 2260, 1-2 thick 2235, 2680 steel bar cutter head, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Joining] Scrap steel execution price: reinforced bar block 2625, flower iron block 2634, medium-sized category 1 10 thickness 2634, medium-sized category 2 6 thickness 2598, heavy-duty category 3 15 thickness 2634, heavy-duty category 4 20 thickness 2647, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
▎East China Region
July 19th [Jiangsu Lianyungang Yaxin Steel] up to 50 : 1. Steel sheet material, mold steel 2500; 2. 12 mm thick high-quality heavy waste A2470; 3. 6 mm thick heavy waste B2380, 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2 Rejection is rejected below 3 mm thickness, and the car surface and bottom are of different grades, so it is treated as adulterated. Specifications: 50X50.
July 18 [Jiangsu Lianyungang Yaxin Steel] increased by 50 : steel sheet material, mold steel, price 2450; 12 mm thick high-quality heavy waste A, price 2420; 6 mm thick heavy waste B, price 2330; 4 mm thick medium waste new material, price 2200-2230. Excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Jiangsu Yangzhou China Airlines] is increased by 100 . After adjustment: new steel sheet material 2440, excellent weight 2410, horseshoe 2400, steel bar head 2410, pig iron 2300-2350, heavy waste 2300-2350, fine furnace material 2220-2260, wire rope 1800, crushed steel shavings 2150-2200, crushed CNC shavings 2010-2080, crushed ordinary shavings 1960-2010, excluding tax.
July 18 [Jiangsu Yangzhou Qinyou] is increased by 50 . After adjustment, the execution price is: steel bar pellets, punches 2500, steel sheet material 12500, mold steel 2500, heavy scrap 22430, machine pig iron 2400, silicon steel sheet 2420, steam cutting material 2450, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Jiangsu Zhenjiang Hongtai] increased by 100 , after adjustment execution price: new steel sheet material 2390, high-weight, steel head 2360, horseshoe 2320, steel bar block 2290, cold rolling, hot rolling, and punching 2300, silicon steel sheet 2250, heavy waste 2300, crushing material 2010-2250, shearing material 2160-2190, steel shavings 1890-1940, tax excluding.
July 18 [Jiangsu Xugang Group] increased by 30 , after adjustment: high-quality steel plate 2610, steel sheet material 2560, fine furnace material 12560, furnace material 2440, high-quality heavy waste 2560, heavy waste 2460, wheel hub 2290, steel bar block 2460, steel plate block 2510, steel bar cutter 2580, roller sheared steel bar cutter 2500, see the price list (stop collection of crushed raw materials), excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Shandong Dezhou Jinguan (Lihui)] is increased by 50 . After adjustment, the new sheet is more than 6mm and 2570, steel bar cut granules 2620, heavy waste 5-6 thick 2530, medium waste 3-4 thick 2470-2510, shock absorbing plate 2490, scissors and agricultural iron 2320-2410, iron chips 2210, chip blocks 2270, machine iron 2310, primary crushing material 2490, secondary crushing material 2240, tax excluding tax. Unit: RMB/ton.
July 18 [Shandong Laigang Yongfeng] Scrap steel procurement notice: Lingang opens and collects three-level scrap steel I (particle steel) 1920, hot melt briquetting 2005, unit: yuan/ton, excluding tax.
-19 [Fujian Xinwuhang] All scrap steel unified 1 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0
▎Central China
-18 [Henan Minyuan Steel] up 30 : Factory scrap 2560-2630, silicon steel sheet 2420, thin sheet scrap steel 2420, special grade material 2630, horseshoe 2530, refined scrap steel 2410, heavy scrap 2490-2610, general scrap steel 2230-2360, bean whipping 2560-2630, steel bar cut head 2630, steel bar head 2510-2610, steel bar block 2460, unprocessed brute material 2080, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
▎ South China
July 18th [Guangdong Heyuan East Guangdong] scrap steel price 40 : heavy waste is 2,400 yuan, cutting material is 2,370 yuan, excluding tax.
July 18 [Guangdong Heyuan Longchuan Hanghui Steel Industry] is increased by 40 , pig iron heavy scrap 2380-2400, industrial punching scrap 2350-2380, air cutting material (60 cm) 2340-2370. Tax excluded, please note that it is prohibited to carry seals and other dangerous goods.
July 18 [Guangdong Jinshenglan] increased by 40 : steel bar cut 2600, pure steel bar head 2540, steel bar pressing blocks stopped collecting, all color scraps 2520, forging material 2520, high heavy scrap steel 2520, heavy scrap one 2480-2500, heavy scrap two 2450 medium scrap 2350-2400 shearing material 2140-2190 punch 2460, all color car material 2360-2410 pig iron 2420-2470, steel shavings and CNC 2090-2140, ordinary shavings and debris are stopped collecting, excluding tax.
July 18 [Guangdong Jiangmen Baofeng] up to 70 : high weight, steel head 2420, pure steel bar pressure 2420, messy steel bar 2380-2410, heavy scrap 2390, hard steel and pig iron 2390, cold rolled punch 2370-2400, cold rolled punch 2350-2370, medium shear 2330, first-class steel chip 2100, ordinary grater 2000-2060, regular material 1900-2000, tax excluding.
July 18 (second time) [Guangdong Heyuan Zhongxin Huafeng Steel] increased by another 80, cumulatively increased by 120 : heavy waste 2480, air cutting material 2450, medium cut 2280. Self-pickup, excluding tax, note that the carrying of seals and other dangerous goods is prohibited
July 18 (second time) [Guangdong Heyuan Derun Steel] will be raised by 60, will be raised by 100 will be raised by 100 : scraps, new steel sheet material 2530; pure steel head, straight steel bar 2510; mold steel, material head round steel , track steel, train wheel 2510; silicon steel sheet stop collection; cold rolling, hot rolling, crushed punch 2460; excellent weight 2490; forged material and horseshoe 2510; heavy scrap 2460; mechanical cast iron, high-carbon steel , cast steel parts, raw and cooked mixed assembly 2460; thick shear 2410, excluding tax.
July 19 [Yima, Guangxi] up to 50 : reinforced pelletizing 2460; new steel sheet material 2460; mold steel 2460; hot rolled punch, cold rolled punch, automobile punching sheet 2440; machine pig iron 2410; automobile wheel hub 2410; car front and rear axles 2400; hot and cold rolled punching sheet 2400; silicon steel sheet 2440; air cutting material 2360; shearing material 2330; old flange 2410; tax excluding, unit: yuan/ton.
July 18 [Guangxi Hezhou Special Steel] up to 50 : excellent weight 2440, pig iron hard steel 2440, mold scraps 2440, steel head 2440, heavy scraps 2440, medium thick material 2410, medium shear 2360, thin cuts stop collecting, punching pieces 2380, crushed materials 2380, gravel 2030-2110, regular materials stop collecting, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
▎Southwest Region
July 18 [Yunnan Muguang Scrap Steel Company] Scrap Steel Purchase Price Adjustment: Rebar Head 2480, Clean Heavy Scrap Steel Size 30cmx30cm, Grade 1 Iron 2400. The size of mechanical iron is specified 60cmx60cm, and the first grade iron is 2400. Excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton. For each half-level drop below the above level, 30 yuan will be deducted, and light and galvanized materials will be strictly controlled.
▎Northeast Region
-18 [Liaoning Anshan Yuanxin] downgrade 150, 0.5-1 thickness 1750-1850, 1-2 thickness 18 90-1940, 1-3 thickness 1940-1990, (pure) 2-4 thickness processing within 500 1980-2020, (pure) 3-5 thickness processing within 500 2040-2080, (pure) 4-6 thickness processing within 600 2130-2160, (pure) 6-8 thickness processing within 600 2170-2200, pig iron steel parts within 600 2050-2100, wire rope processing within 700 1820-1870, pure wire small pressing block 400 1920-1970. (China Steel Network, My Steel Network)
. Forecast: Steel prices will still...
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The recent rise has added a "heart-boosting agent" to the once sluggish market confidence, and pessimism has eased. Where should steel prices go in the later period? Let's wait and see...
. The factors affecting the steel market are as follows
weekends Hebei Tangshan general carbon billet prices rebounded, and some market construction steel prices rebounded at low levels
weekends, the ex-factory price of Tangshan square billets in Hebei has increased by 100 yuan, reaching 3500 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan from last Sunday. Due to the rebound of the black system on Friday night, some domestic construction steel prices in the operating market rebounded at low levels. Among them, some steel mills in North China and East China made up for the decline, and ultra-low-priced resources in various places took the initiative to rise.
analysts' opinion: Last week, Tangshan's steel billet inventory was high, and the total volume was at a historical high. Last week, steel prices continued to fall, and market panic fermented. Some merchants lowered their prices significantly on Friday.With the release of macroeconomic data, market sentiment has boosted. The price of carbon billets in Tangshan, Hebei Province rose on weekends, and the construction steel prices in some markets rebounded at low levels. However, market transactions did not increase, indicating that current confidence is still weak, and the weak terminal demand is still the biggest constraint on the continued recovery of steel prices. Whether this wave of upsurge can continue, we must still focus on changes in market trading volume.
is expected to raise interest rates next week 25 basis points
Institutional analysis: The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates of all three major policy rates by 25 basis points in July and 50 basis points in September, and then raise these rates by 25 basis points in October, December, February and March. Finally, it is expected that the ECB will only raise the deposit interest rate by 25 basis points in June 2023.
analysts' opinion: The Russian-Ukrainian conflict that broke out at the beginning of the year brought a huge impact on the global economy, especially the eurozone economy suffered a heavy blow. Due to the heavy reliance on Russian oil and gas supply, the soaring energy prices not only hindered the European supply chain, but also further aggravated the inflation threat. The current euro zone economy is facing the danger of stagflation. Once interest rate hikes are implemented, inflationary pressure in the euro zone may be alleviated, but at the same time, consumption, investment, import and export will be suppressed to a certain extent, thereby inhibiting the recovery process of the global economy and will also have a certain negative impact on my country's economic recovery and recovery.
The fourth round of coke reduction will be started
html From 0:00 on the 219th, some steel mills in Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi and other regions plan to jointly reduce the purchase price of coke by 200 yuan/ton. The fourth round of coke reduction will be reduced by 800 yuan/ton.
analysts' opinion: Recently, coke companies and steel companies have competed fiercely around coke prices, but with the sharp decline in finished steel prices, coke prices have also been forced to enter a downward channel. The increase in coke prices this time is due to the contraction of demand caused by steel companies' production cuts, and on the other hand, it also reflects the pessimistic attitude of steel companies and the market towards demand expectations. In the short term, steel prices will still be dragged down by the downward movement of the cost center.
Central Bank achieved a net injection of 9 billion
Central Bank: Today, it conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with the winning rate of 2.10%, the same as before. Since 3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired today, a net injection of 9 billion yuan was achieved on the same day.
Many steel companies talk about future survival: the industry situation is extremely severe
Reviewed in the first half of 2022, affected by the epidemic, macroeconomic data fell significantly, and downstream demand was sluggish, driving the decline in steel prices. At the same time, factors such as the conflict in Russia and Ukraine have led to high prices of upstream raw materials, and the profits of steel mills and markets are meager, and some steel companies have entered the ranks of suspension of production and maintenance.
June 2022 National steel production
In June 2022, key statistics were conducted on steel enterprises to produce a total of 71.0228 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year decrease of 3.86%, and a daily output of 2.3674 million tons, a decrease of 4.68% compared with the previous period.
. In the spot market,
Rebar is weak and running
steel billets rose sharply last weekend, and the futures market fluctuated strongly in the early trading, and the ex-factory prices of steel mills rose slightly, market confidence boosted, and spot market prices fell at a low level. Merchants' pessimism has improved slightly, and the price rebounded after a continuous decline in line with market expectations. However, as the current downstream demand is difficult to support a complete reversal of prices, it is expected that prices will enter a slight fluctuation after rising in the near future.
hot coil is weak and runs
This period of the roll fluctuates at a high level, merchants are pessimistic and cautious in waiting and watching, market demand continues to be weak, there are few inquiries, downstream customers are cautious in purchasing, and overall transactions are not good. It is expected that the short-term hot coil price will run in a stable and strong manner.
middle board firmly sorted
Today, the mid-board has made up for the decline, and the related futures trend fluctuated and strengthened, but the demand was insufficient, the overall trading atmosphere of the market was not active, and the merchants were in a stalemate, and wait and see. Some of the trading volume at low levels in the afternoon improved, and it is expected to be firmly consolidated in the short term.
Strip steel maintains stability and organizes
At present, the transaction performance of strip steel is still average after the decline. China Loan spot stock has been repeatedly adjusted, the manufacturer is cautious in its mentality, and the enthusiasm for pulling up is average, and the willingness to ship when it is high is obvious, and the main reason for making up for the increase is the price. The overall trading performance is light. Considering that waiting and watching is dominant, it is expected to maintain stability and organize.
profiles are running steadily
blanks are temporarily moving forward steadily, demand continues to be weak, transactions are light, market mentality continues to be pessimistic, and profile prices are expected to run steadily in the short term.
Pipes are firmly organized and organized and organized
This futures trend is strong and fluctuating. The cost-side price support is insufficient. After the weekend's rebound, the spot market of pipes has maintained stability and lowered. However, the market trading is mediocre, and the pessimism has not dissipated after the oversold rebound. Merchants are more cautious, and the actual demand is still weak and it is difficult to support the sharp rebound trend. In the short term, it is expected that the pipe market will be firmly organized.
3. In the raw material market,
Steel billets fluctuate and run
At present, the market supply and demand contradictions remain, the mainstream of local finished materials remains stable, and steel mills have the willingness to explore the rise, but spot transactions are insufficient, high-level resources have declined, and overall trading performance is average, and there is no significant increase in volume. Considering that the unloading factory is still in a loss state, and the black series futures are now on the red high, it supports the manufacturer's mentality of supporting prices and looking forward to rising prices. It is expected that the price of steel billets will fluctuate in the short term.
Iron ore is weak and running
In some areas, steel companies have expanded their declines, large-scale production suspension and maintenance status has not improved yet, market resources have decreased, but buyers' purchasing demand is also not high, steel companies have obvious production reduction operations, and they maintain on-demand replenishment of warehouses, and trade and other industries are mostly on the sidelines and wait-and-see, and they dare not operate rashly. The overall market trading is deserted, and it is expected that the short-term mineral prices will be stable and weak.
Coke is weak and stable operation
Coke companies have suffered a large loss, and their production enthusiasm is relatively low. There is a possibility of continuing to increase production restrictions. The downstream demand for coke is weak, and some coke companies have slowed down. Inventory has accumulated slightly, but the overall inventory is running at a low level. Downstream steel mills are generally started, and terminal demand has not improved significantly. Steel mills are suffering serious losses, and maintenance situations have gradually increased. The overall demand for coke is weak and the main demand is the primary demand. It is expected that the coke market will be weak and stable in the short term.
Scrap steel main steadily consolidation
This period of snails fluctuated red, and the market mentality gradually stabilized. Due to the sharp drop in scrap steel in the previous few rounds, most merchants are no longer willing to ship. Steel mills arrived few on weekends. Some steel mills slightly raised the purchase price of scrap steel due to production needs, but the demand for finished materials market is still sluggish. The rebound this time will not be too large. Please grasp the pace of shipment and it is expected that scrap steel will be consolidated in the short term.
Pig iron is weak and difficult to change
Domestic pig iron market fell sharply, and transactions were bleak. The third round of coke reduction has been fully implemented. Some steel mills plan to start the fourth round of reduction. Recently, the prices of scrap steel and billets have continued to decline. The mentality of merchants has been impacted, downstream procurement is scarce, and the quotations of various subway plants have been greatly reduced. It is reported that some iron mills have stopped production or planned to stop production. The mentality of merchants is pessimistic and it is expected that the short-term weakness of the pig iron market will be difficult to change.
4. Comprehensive suggestions
opened today, and the futures spiral continued to fluctuate strongly. traders' mentality changed, tentatively pushing up quotations and trading volume at low prices increased. The price of spirals continued to rise on Monday, the market bottom price rose, and the purchase of terminals and middlemen increased in the afternoon, and the mainstream trading prices in the market rose slightly again. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate and become stronger tomorrow. (China Steel Network)
, 2022 crude steel supply and demand balance logic deduction and estimate analysis
, estimation model logic description and result display
, demand model logic description
, estimation model logic description
, estimation model GDP is highly correlated with crude steel production and sales.Steel is known as the "mother of industry". With the development of my country's economy, the total steel volume is also expanding rapidly, and the demand for crude steel continues to rise. By observing the changes in GDP and crude steel demand in historical years, we can find that the two are very correlated. The two not only have a certain close connection, but also influence each other and have certain growth and operational patterns. Therefore, we can use model methods to deduce changes in GDP and crude steel demand in 2022 through the study of the historical data of the two.
, demand estimate results
uses the four major industries to calculate GDP (variable X) and crude steel demand (variable Y) to establish a VAR model, showing that the prediction models of the two are:
LNX=0.765958067885*LNX(-1)+0.250213291544*LNY(-1)+ 0.260232480346;
LNY=0.0816088567618*LNX(-1)+0.768751394858*LNY(-1)+1.60347532434.
Since the four major industries are not only related to the steel industry, they contain many influencing factors, so the values and actual values backtested according to the model will have a slight error every year. On the one hand, considering the current general background of the decline in crude steel production, and on the other hand, considering that the central government's determination to live in houses rather than speculation is more sharp, the demand data for crude steel this year theoretically needs to be adjusted appropriately. We believe that the downward revision can be referred to in previous deviations, and the consumption of crude steel this year decreased by about 2.9% compared with the same period last year.
. Three scenarios of demand reverse supply
. Scenario 1: The year-on-year decrease is less than 2%
Under the current economic situation, the domestic value-added space for the 5.5% GDP target is likely to be concentrated in emerging industries. In addition, the foreign environment is not stable, and the "policy top" of raw material prices represented by iron ore has arrived. In other words, in order to curb the rapid rise in raw material prices, the government's reduction in crude steel production may exceed expectations.
From the perspective of the main steel industry, the real estate industry continues to be weak, and the infrastructure support is limited, which has pushed back to the supply side, resulting in a year-on-year decline in steel production for construction. In terms of panels, the supply and demand performance is slightly better than building materials, and the decline in domestic demand and foreign demand exports in manufacturing industry is limited. In addition, the demand for industries such as automobiles, home appliances, machinery, shipbuilding, and steel structures is guaranteed, so the overall reduction ratio of the board supply is not high. In turn, the crude steel supply reduction in 2022 was 16.87 million tons, a decrease of 1.6%.
, Scenario 2: A year-on-year decrease of 2%~3%
This scenario expands the differentiation contradiction between building materials and boards, and estimates the year-on-year performance of building materials with weaker, while boards still perform better than building materials.
The newly started real estate area, sales area and capital situation in the first half of 2022 have not improved. The infrastructure efforts are unable to support building materials demand due to the extended period of funds in place, which makes building materials unable to digest, and steel companies have begun to repair/reduce production one after another; for panels, the manufacturing industry performs slightly better.
As of May 2022, China's Manufacturing Supply Index (MMSI) was 157.42 points, a year-on-year decrease of 8.72% and a month-on-month increase of 6.60%. Among them, automobile production and sales showed a significant recovery growth, with the automobile supply index being 117.97, a month-on-month increase of 27.81%; the home appliance supply index being 141.11, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%; the construction machinery supply index being 164.06, a month-on-month increase of 31.58%; the marine supply index being 119.63, a month-on-month increase of 20.07%.
Therefore, the decline in building materials for the five major steel varieties has expanded, and the overall plate materials have increased slightly. thus reduced the supply of crude steel in 2022 by 23.02 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%.
, Scenario 3: A year-on-year decrease of more than 3%
Based on the situation 2, the demand for building materials and hot-rolled varieties is more pessimistic. Judging from the data of the main industry, the production and sales of automobiles in April also became the monthly low of the same period in the past decade, and it is also the second-largest monthly low in the past decade, except for the unexpected second-largest in February 2020, production and sales in May still fell by 5.7% and 12.6% year-on-year respectively, with limited overall improvement. For the home appliance industry, the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain of the home appliance industry has weakened, and corporate production has returned to normal levels; for the machinery and shipbuilding industries, strong overseas demand and the start of infrastructure projects have also supported the increase in demand for excavators. The national shipbuilding industry has basically resumed work and production, and the production and operation of the ship industry has gradually stabilized and rebounded.
Therefore, the reduction of building materials and hot rolling for the five major steel varieties increased slightly, and cold rolling and medium-thick plates increased slightly. thus reduced the supply of crude steel in 2022 by 33.32 million tons, a decrease of 3.2%.
. 2022 crude steel supply and demand estimate balance table
Based on the previous analysis of demand estimate results, crude steel consumption in 2022 decreased by about 2.9% year-on-year. On this basis, we will reversely refer to the three scenarios of supply reduction, and the year-on-year reduction of crude steel supply is below 2%, 2%~3% and above 3% respectively.
Although crude steel fell by 8.7% year-on-year from January to May 2022, pig iron and crude steel are still setting new highs. Since June, the contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent, the proportion of losses of steel companies remains high, and the reduction of crude steel is implemented one after another, the release of demand has not been reflected, and the pressure on inventory has become increasingly strong. Therefore, steel companies have gradually begun to reduce production in a concentrated manner. However, judging from the GDP growth rate and the order performance surveyed in July, crude steel production and sales are likely to show a low at the beginning and high at the end, and the overall market prosperity in the second half of the year gradually improved. Based on this, the author will analyze the supply and demand balance from the situation where the year-on-year decline in crude steel production and sales are both 2% to 3%.
Note; the five major varieties are rebar, wire, hot-rolled plate coil, cold-rolled plate coil, medium-thick plate
. Sub-item description
, supply
, supply
htt ml2 From January 2022 to the present, crude steel production has been relatively low year-on-year. There are three main reasons. One is that the raw material prices are high, steel mill production costs are under great pressure, and the proportion of steel companies' losses has gradually increased; the second is that the impact of the spread of the epidemic nationwide, and cities have even been locked down in Northeast China, which has led to the hinderment of logistics and transportation. The inventory pressure of steel companies has gradually become prominent, and the performance of downstream demand is poor, which has led to low production enthusiasm of steel companies; the third is that the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will continue to carry out the national crude steel production reduction work to ensure that the national crude steel production decreases in 2022 year-on-year.
In the long run, the overall environment for reducing crude steel in China remains unchanged, and the policy goal of "dual control of energy consumption" will still be effectively implemented and implemented. Although most steel companies have reduced production on a large scale since January, this does not mean that steel companies will actively resume production in the next period of time. Each province will effectively control production and reduce production based on the capacity base. Recently, two major provinces have begun to implement this year's reduction plan. First, the four departments of Shandong Province jointly issued a 2022 crude steel production regulation plan, requiring the overall crude steel production not to exceed last year, and the specific reduction output and range have not been clarified yet; second, the website of the Tangshan Municipal People's Government issued a notice on issuing the "Tangshan Steel Industry "1+3" Action Plan", requiring the full shutdown of blast furnaces below 1,000 cubic meters and converters below 100 tons by the end of the year.
To sum up, it is a definite fact that the year-on-year reduction of crude steel is a definite fact, but in the next time, dynamic production will be carried out within the upper and lower limit ranges based on the logic of determining production by sales, and different varieties of structures will be prepared.
. In terms of import and export
There are no long-term absolute positive factors in terms of import and export estimates for the whole year, and the overall macro environment and basic demand performance at home and abroad.In addition, international frictions are frequent, so we have formulated a strategic approach to domestic and international dual circulation to reduce the impact of international market fluctuations on our country.
In addition, since the beginning of this year, Russia, the Philippines, Indonesia and other countries have been under the import and export performance of steel billets and steel from January to now, due to various factors such as Ramadan, military, Easter, etc. Because of the expectation of year-on-year decline in domestic supply and demand, Therefore, there is an expectation of year-on-year decline in resource digestion of domestic demand and foreign demand.
, demand
direct consumption of crude steel is mainly reflected in the supply and export of primary materials. The primary materials mainly include rebar, wire, coil screw, round steel, seamless pipe, hot-rolled plate coil, medium-thick plate, strip steel, angle groove, profile steel, etc. But in terms of its ultimate use, it is still used in terminal industries such as real estate, home appliances, automobiles, and shipbuilding. By industry, steel for construction can usually be divided into steel structure steel and reinforced concrete structure steel bars, of which at least 80% are reinforced concrete structure steel bars, and the varieties involved are mainly rebars, wires and coil screws. The steel used in steel structures mainly includes ordinary carbon structural steel and low alloy structural steel. The varieties involved mainly include angle steel, channel steel, I-shaped steel, etc., and the usage volume accounts for a relatively small proportion compared with the total steel. In addition to building steel, other medium-thick plates, hot rolling, cold rolling, coating plating and other varieties are mainly used in machinery, home appliances, automobiles, shipbuilding, energy and chemical industries.
However, judging from the current industry development expectations, real estate sales are weak and capital recovery is weak. The necessity of infrastructure support has been slightly reduced, and the fluency of capital decentralization is not good, so the support for demand for construction steel is limited, and it is likely to remain weak year-on-year. In addition, although the growth rate of manufacturing investment has declined slightly due to the impact of the epidemic, the overall industry prosperity is still maintained. Under the encouragement of the national tax refund policy, the demand for steel for manufacturing may have slightly better performance .
, in terms of inventory
Based on the above estimates and explanations for supply, demand and import and export, the year-on-year decline in supply for the whole year was significantly lower than the demand performance. In addition, the long-term performance of external demand was expected to recover, so resources that could not be digested in time will accumulate in the market and steel mill warehouses, or even off-balance sheet in the form of inventory. Therefore, from the perspective of inventory pressure in the second half of the year, if the supply and demand drops between 2% and 3%, the balance between the two will determine the pressure-bearing capacity of the entire market. Once the balance is imbalanced, it will again lead to the repeated feedback of the industrial chain in June, causing steel prices to fall beyond expectations, affecting the mentality and trading atmosphere of the entire market.
. Conclusion analysis: Production is determined by sales, dynamic balance
To sum up, after the supply-side reform from 2016 to 2019, the domestic market has carried out a wash-up in response to backward production capacity. However, with the gradual dissipation of the domestic demographic dividend, the international and domestic strong initiatives for green and environmental protection, the steel industry is imminent, and the implementation of the policy of reducing crude steel is inevitable. Therefore, after 2020, the country proposed the slogan of "dual control of energy consumption" and began to implement the reduction policy by mandatory implementation, and began to implement measures in key industries such as coal, electricity, natural gas, and steel. Among them, crude steel reduction is the top priority in the steel industry, and in the past two years, it has performed particularly well in key provinces and cities such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta.
Since the beginning of 2022, the steel industry has exploded again in March and April and the epidemic in Northeast China and East China has spread again, and demand performance is relatively weak. It then changes to the cost support logic, causing the steel price to fall to a bottom. However, in the middle and late second quarter, as the epidemic gradually improved, under the structure of slow consumption, consumption expectations gradually turned into short supply, and steel prices began to fall sharply.
With the gradual development of this series of supply and demand contradictions, crude steel Nissan and pig iron hit new highs, which has also attracted widespread attention from the market. This is in conflict with the coordinated management of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and the National Bureau of Statistics, which will continue to carry out the national crude steel production reduction work in 2022. Therefore, the call for steel companies to reduce production is becoming stronger and stronger, promoting dynamic balance in the industry to achieve the goal of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices.
Based on this, under the consideration of the dynamic balance between supply and demand of crude steel in 2022, Mysteel estimates that the year-on-year decline in crude steel production and sales in 2022 may be between 2% and 3%, respectively, reaching a year-on-year decline of 2.2% and 2.9%.
In addition, for the reduction rhythm of crude steel, "production based on sales" is a core rule. The reduction of crude steel is appropriately adjusted according to the changes in demand this year. Combined with the above-mentioned deduction of the cycle of crude steel reduction from the perspective of demand release and raw material fundamentals, it can be seen that similar to the situation in previous years, the implementation of dynamic reduction policies in the cycle from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter is an ideal time period. This not only creates a good prerequisite for steel companies to actively reduce production, but also creates a virtuous cycle between supply and demand. Since the demand for raw materials is reflected in the production level of finished materials, steel has decreased volume, raw material demand has been set, and the fundamentals are weak, which may cause the price to run weakly within the cycle, thereby assisting steel companies to selectively prepare for future production recovery. (My Steel Network)
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With the release of macroeconomic data, market sentiment has boosted. The price of carbon billets in Tangshan, Hebei Province rose on weekends, and the construction steel prices in some markets rebounded at low levels. However, market transactions did not increase, indicating that current confidence is still weak, and the weak terminal demand is still the biggest constraint on the continued recovery of steel prices. Whether this wave of upsurge can continue, we must still focus on changes in market trading volume.is expected to raise interest rates next week 25 basis points
Institutional analysis: The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates of all three major policy rates by 25 basis points in July and 50 basis points in September, and then raise these rates by 25 basis points in October, December, February and March. Finally, it is expected that the ECB will only raise the deposit interest rate by 25 basis points in June 2023.
analysts' opinion: The Russian-Ukrainian conflict that broke out at the beginning of the year brought a huge impact on the global economy, especially the eurozone economy suffered a heavy blow. Due to the heavy reliance on Russian oil and gas supply, the soaring energy prices not only hindered the European supply chain, but also further aggravated the inflation threat. The current euro zone economy is facing the danger of stagflation. Once interest rate hikes are implemented, inflationary pressure in the euro zone may be alleviated, but at the same time, consumption, investment, import and export will be suppressed to a certain extent, thereby inhibiting the recovery process of the global economy and will also have a certain negative impact on my country's economic recovery and recovery.
The fourth round of coke reduction will be started
html From 0:00 on the 219th, some steel mills in Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi and other regions plan to jointly reduce the purchase price of coke by 200 yuan/ton. The fourth round of coke reduction will be reduced by 800 yuan/ton.
analysts' opinion: Recently, coke companies and steel companies have competed fiercely around coke prices, but with the sharp decline in finished steel prices, coke prices have also been forced to enter a downward channel. The increase in coke prices this time is due to the contraction of demand caused by steel companies' production cuts, and on the other hand, it also reflects the pessimistic attitude of steel companies and the market towards demand expectations. In the short term, steel prices will still be dragged down by the downward movement of the cost center.
Central Bank achieved a net injection of 9 billion
Central Bank: Today, it conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with the winning rate of 2.10%, the same as before. Since 3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired today, a net injection of 9 billion yuan was achieved on the same day.
Many steel companies talk about future survival: the industry situation is extremely severe
Reviewed in the first half of 2022, affected by the epidemic, macroeconomic data fell significantly, and downstream demand was sluggish, driving the decline in steel prices. At the same time, factors such as the conflict in Russia and Ukraine have led to high prices of upstream raw materials, and the profits of steel mills and markets are meager, and some steel companies have entered the ranks of suspension of production and maintenance.
June 2022 National steel production
In June 2022, key statistics were conducted on steel enterprises to produce a total of 71.0228 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year decrease of 3.86%, and a daily output of 2.3674 million tons, a decrease of 4.68% compared with the previous period.
. In the spot market,
Rebar is weak and running
steel billets rose sharply last weekend, and the futures market fluctuated strongly in the early trading, and the ex-factory prices of steel mills rose slightly, market confidence boosted, and spot market prices fell at a low level. Merchants' pessimism has improved slightly, and the price rebounded after a continuous decline in line with market expectations. However, as the current downstream demand is difficult to support a complete reversal of prices, it is expected that prices will enter a slight fluctuation after rising in the near future.
hot coil is weak and runs
This period of the roll fluctuates at a high level, merchants are pessimistic and cautious in waiting and watching, market demand continues to be weak, there are few inquiries, downstream customers are cautious in purchasing, and overall transactions are not good. It is expected that the short-term hot coil price will run in a stable and strong manner.
middle board firmly sorted
Today, the mid-board has made up for the decline, and the related futures trend fluctuated and strengthened, but the demand was insufficient, the overall trading atmosphere of the market was not active, and the merchants were in a stalemate, and wait and see. Some of the trading volume at low levels in the afternoon improved, and it is expected to be firmly consolidated in the short term.
Strip steel maintains stability and organizes
At present, the transaction performance of strip steel is still average after the decline. China Loan spot stock has been repeatedly adjusted, the manufacturer is cautious in its mentality, and the enthusiasm for pulling up is average, and the willingness to ship when it is high is obvious, and the main reason for making up for the increase is the price. The overall trading performance is light. Considering that waiting and watching is dominant, it is expected to maintain stability and organize.
profiles are running steadily
blanks are temporarily moving forward steadily, demand continues to be weak, transactions are light, market mentality continues to be pessimistic, and profile prices are expected to run steadily in the short term.
Pipes are firmly organized and organized and organized
This futures trend is strong and fluctuating. The cost-side price support is insufficient. After the weekend's rebound, the spot market of pipes has maintained stability and lowered. However, the market trading is mediocre, and the pessimism has not dissipated after the oversold rebound. Merchants are more cautious, and the actual demand is still weak and it is difficult to support the sharp rebound trend. In the short term, it is expected that the pipe market will be firmly organized.
3. In the raw material market,
Steel billets fluctuate and run
At present, the market supply and demand contradictions remain, the mainstream of local finished materials remains stable, and steel mills have the willingness to explore the rise, but spot transactions are insufficient, high-level resources have declined, and overall trading performance is average, and there is no significant increase in volume. Considering that the unloading factory is still in a loss state, and the black series futures are now on the red high, it supports the manufacturer's mentality of supporting prices and looking forward to rising prices. It is expected that the price of steel billets will fluctuate in the short term.
Iron ore is weak and running
In some areas, steel companies have expanded their declines, large-scale production suspension and maintenance status has not improved yet, market resources have decreased, but buyers' purchasing demand is also not high, steel companies have obvious production reduction operations, and they maintain on-demand replenishment of warehouses, and trade and other industries are mostly on the sidelines and wait-and-see, and they dare not operate rashly. The overall market trading is deserted, and it is expected that the short-term mineral prices will be stable and weak.
Coke is weak and stable operation
Coke companies have suffered a large loss, and their production enthusiasm is relatively low. There is a possibility of continuing to increase production restrictions. The downstream demand for coke is weak, and some coke companies have slowed down. Inventory has accumulated slightly, but the overall inventory is running at a low level. Downstream steel mills are generally started, and terminal demand has not improved significantly. Steel mills are suffering serious losses, and maintenance situations have gradually increased. The overall demand for coke is weak and the main demand is the primary demand. It is expected that the coke market will be weak and stable in the short term.
Scrap steel main steadily consolidation
This period of snails fluctuated red, and the market mentality gradually stabilized. Due to the sharp drop in scrap steel in the previous few rounds, most merchants are no longer willing to ship. Steel mills arrived few on weekends. Some steel mills slightly raised the purchase price of scrap steel due to production needs, but the demand for finished materials market is still sluggish. The rebound this time will not be too large. Please grasp the pace of shipment and it is expected that scrap steel will be consolidated in the short term.
Pig iron is weak and difficult to change
Domestic pig iron market fell sharply, and transactions were bleak. The third round of coke reduction has been fully implemented. Some steel mills plan to start the fourth round of reduction. Recently, the prices of scrap steel and billets have continued to decline. The mentality of merchants has been impacted, downstream procurement is scarce, and the quotations of various subway plants have been greatly reduced. It is reported that some iron mills have stopped production or planned to stop production. The mentality of merchants is pessimistic and it is expected that the short-term weakness of the pig iron market will be difficult to change.
4. Comprehensive suggestions
opened today, and the futures spiral continued to fluctuate strongly. traders' mentality changed, tentatively pushing up quotations and trading volume at low prices increased. The price of spirals continued to rise on Monday, the market bottom price rose, and the purchase of terminals and middlemen increased in the afternoon, and the mainstream trading prices in the market rose slightly again. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate and become stronger tomorrow. (China Steel Network)
, 2022 crude steel supply and demand balance logic deduction and estimate analysis
, estimation model logic description and result display
, demand model logic description
, estimation model logic description
, estimation model GDP is highly correlated with crude steel production and sales.Steel is known as the "mother of industry". With the development of my country's economy, the total steel volume is also expanding rapidly, and the demand for crude steel continues to rise. By observing the changes in GDP and crude steel demand in historical years, we can find that the two are very correlated. The two not only have a certain close connection, but also influence each other and have certain growth and operational patterns. Therefore, we can use model methods to deduce changes in GDP and crude steel demand in 2022 through the study of the historical data of the two.
, demand estimate results
uses the four major industries to calculate GDP (variable X) and crude steel demand (variable Y) to establish a VAR model, showing that the prediction models of the two are:
LNX=0.765958067885*LNX(-1)+0.250213291544*LNY(-1)+ 0.260232480346;
LNY=0.0816088567618*LNX(-1)+0.768751394858*LNY(-1)+1.60347532434.
Since the four major industries are not only related to the steel industry, they contain many influencing factors, so the values and actual values backtested according to the model will have a slight error every year. On the one hand, considering the current general background of the decline in crude steel production, and on the other hand, considering that the central government's determination to live in houses rather than speculation is more sharp, the demand data for crude steel this year theoretically needs to be adjusted appropriately. We believe that the downward revision can be referred to in previous deviations, and the consumption of crude steel this year decreased by about 2.9% compared with the same period last year.
. Three scenarios of demand reverse supply
. Scenario 1: The year-on-year decrease is less than 2%
Under the current economic situation, the domestic value-added space for the 5.5% GDP target is likely to be concentrated in emerging industries. In addition, the foreign environment is not stable, and the "policy top" of raw material prices represented by iron ore has arrived. In other words, in order to curb the rapid rise in raw material prices, the government's reduction in crude steel production may exceed expectations.
From the perspective of the main steel industry, the real estate industry continues to be weak, and the infrastructure support is limited, which has pushed back to the supply side, resulting in a year-on-year decline in steel production for construction. In terms of panels, the supply and demand performance is slightly better than building materials, and the decline in domestic demand and foreign demand exports in manufacturing industry is limited. In addition, the demand for industries such as automobiles, home appliances, machinery, shipbuilding, and steel structures is guaranteed, so the overall reduction ratio of the board supply is not high. In turn, the crude steel supply reduction in 2022 was 16.87 million tons, a decrease of 1.6%.
, Scenario 2: A year-on-year decrease of 2%~3%
This scenario expands the differentiation contradiction between building materials and boards, and estimates the year-on-year performance of building materials with weaker, while boards still perform better than building materials.
The newly started real estate area, sales area and capital situation in the first half of 2022 have not improved. The infrastructure efforts are unable to support building materials demand due to the extended period of funds in place, which makes building materials unable to digest, and steel companies have begun to repair/reduce production one after another; for panels, the manufacturing industry performs slightly better.
As of May 2022, China's Manufacturing Supply Index (MMSI) was 157.42 points, a year-on-year decrease of 8.72% and a month-on-month increase of 6.60%. Among them, automobile production and sales showed a significant recovery growth, with the automobile supply index being 117.97, a month-on-month increase of 27.81%; the home appliance supply index being 141.11, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%; the construction machinery supply index being 164.06, a month-on-month increase of 31.58%; the marine supply index being 119.63, a month-on-month increase of 20.07%.
Therefore, the decline in building materials for the five major steel varieties has expanded, and the overall plate materials have increased slightly. thus reduced the supply of crude steel in 2022 by 23.02 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%.
, Scenario 3: A year-on-year decrease of more than 3%
Based on the situation 2, the demand for building materials and hot-rolled varieties is more pessimistic. Judging from the data of the main industry, the production and sales of automobiles in April also became the monthly low of the same period in the past decade, and it is also the second-largest monthly low in the past decade, except for the unexpected second-largest in February 2020, production and sales in May still fell by 5.7% and 12.6% year-on-year respectively, with limited overall improvement. For the home appliance industry, the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain of the home appliance industry has weakened, and corporate production has returned to normal levels; for the machinery and shipbuilding industries, strong overseas demand and the start of infrastructure projects have also supported the increase in demand for excavators. The national shipbuilding industry has basically resumed work and production, and the production and operation of the ship industry has gradually stabilized and rebounded.
Therefore, the reduction of building materials and hot rolling for the five major steel varieties increased slightly, and cold rolling and medium-thick plates increased slightly. thus reduced the supply of crude steel in 2022 by 33.32 million tons, a decrease of 3.2%.
. 2022 crude steel supply and demand estimate balance table
Based on the previous analysis of demand estimate results, crude steel consumption in 2022 decreased by about 2.9% year-on-year. On this basis, we will reversely refer to the three scenarios of supply reduction, and the year-on-year reduction of crude steel supply is below 2%, 2%~3% and above 3% respectively.
Although crude steel fell by 8.7% year-on-year from January to May 2022, pig iron and crude steel are still setting new highs. Since June, the contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent, the proportion of losses of steel companies remains high, and the reduction of crude steel is implemented one after another, the release of demand has not been reflected, and the pressure on inventory has become increasingly strong. Therefore, steel companies have gradually begun to reduce production in a concentrated manner. However, judging from the GDP growth rate and the order performance surveyed in July, crude steel production and sales are likely to show a low at the beginning and high at the end, and the overall market prosperity in the second half of the year gradually improved. Based on this, the author will analyze the supply and demand balance from the situation where the year-on-year decline in crude steel production and sales are both 2% to 3%.
Note; the five major varieties are rebar, wire, hot-rolled plate coil, cold-rolled plate coil, medium-thick plate
. Sub-item description
, supply
, supply
htt ml2 From January 2022 to the present, crude steel production has been relatively low year-on-year. There are three main reasons. One is that the raw material prices are high, steel mill production costs are under great pressure, and the proportion of steel companies' losses has gradually increased; the second is that the impact of the spread of the epidemic nationwide, and cities have even been locked down in Northeast China, which has led to the hinderment of logistics and transportation. The inventory pressure of steel companies has gradually become prominent, and the performance of downstream demand is poor, which has led to low production enthusiasm of steel companies; the third is that the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will continue to carry out the national crude steel production reduction work to ensure that the national crude steel production decreases in 2022 year-on-year.
In the long run, the overall environment for reducing crude steel in China remains unchanged, and the policy goal of "dual control of energy consumption" will still be effectively implemented and implemented. Although most steel companies have reduced production on a large scale since January, this does not mean that steel companies will actively resume production in the next period of time. Each province will effectively control production and reduce production based on the capacity base. Recently, two major provinces have begun to implement this year's reduction plan. First, the four departments of Shandong Province jointly issued a 2022 crude steel production regulation plan, requiring the overall crude steel production not to exceed last year, and the specific reduction output and range have not been clarified yet; second, the website of the Tangshan Municipal People's Government issued a notice on issuing the "Tangshan Steel Industry "1+3" Action Plan", requiring the full shutdown of blast furnaces below 1,000 cubic meters and converters below 100 tons by the end of the year.
To sum up, it is a definite fact that the year-on-year reduction of crude steel is a definite fact, but in the next time, dynamic production will be carried out within the upper and lower limit ranges based on the logic of determining production by sales, and different varieties of structures will be prepared.
. In terms of import and export
There are no long-term absolute positive factors in terms of import and export estimates for the whole year, and the overall macro environment and basic demand performance at home and abroad.In addition, international frictions are frequent, so we have formulated a strategic approach to domestic and international dual circulation to reduce the impact of international market fluctuations on our country.
In addition, since the beginning of this year, Russia, the Philippines, Indonesia and other countries have been under the import and export performance of steel billets and steel from January to now, due to various factors such as Ramadan, military, Easter, etc. Because of the expectation of year-on-year decline in domestic supply and demand, Therefore, there is an expectation of year-on-year decline in resource digestion of domestic demand and foreign demand.
, demand
direct consumption of crude steel is mainly reflected in the supply and export of primary materials. The primary materials mainly include rebar, wire, coil screw, round steel, seamless pipe, hot-rolled plate coil, medium-thick plate, strip steel, angle groove, profile steel, etc. But in terms of its ultimate use, it is still used in terminal industries such as real estate, home appliances, automobiles, and shipbuilding. By industry, steel for construction can usually be divided into steel structure steel and reinforced concrete structure steel bars, of which at least 80% are reinforced concrete structure steel bars, and the varieties involved are mainly rebars, wires and coil screws. The steel used in steel structures mainly includes ordinary carbon structural steel and low alloy structural steel. The varieties involved mainly include angle steel, channel steel, I-shaped steel, etc., and the usage volume accounts for a relatively small proportion compared with the total steel. In addition to building steel, other medium-thick plates, hot rolling, cold rolling, coating plating and other varieties are mainly used in machinery, home appliances, automobiles, shipbuilding, energy and chemical industries.
However, judging from the current industry development expectations, real estate sales are weak and capital recovery is weak. The necessity of infrastructure support has been slightly reduced, and the fluency of capital decentralization is not good, so the support for demand for construction steel is limited, and it is likely to remain weak year-on-year. In addition, although the growth rate of manufacturing investment has declined slightly due to the impact of the epidemic, the overall industry prosperity is still maintained. Under the encouragement of the national tax refund policy, the demand for steel for manufacturing may have slightly better performance .
, in terms of inventory
Based on the above estimates and explanations for supply, demand and import and export, the year-on-year decline in supply for the whole year was significantly lower than the demand performance. In addition, the long-term performance of external demand was expected to recover, so resources that could not be digested in time will accumulate in the market and steel mill warehouses, or even off-balance sheet in the form of inventory. Therefore, from the perspective of inventory pressure in the second half of the year, if the supply and demand drops between 2% and 3%, the balance between the two will determine the pressure-bearing capacity of the entire market. Once the balance is imbalanced, it will again lead to the repeated feedback of the industrial chain in June, causing steel prices to fall beyond expectations, affecting the mentality and trading atmosphere of the entire market.
. Conclusion analysis: Production is determined by sales, dynamic balance
To sum up, after the supply-side reform from 2016 to 2019, the domestic market has carried out a wash-up in response to backward production capacity. However, with the gradual dissipation of the domestic demographic dividend, the international and domestic strong initiatives for green and environmental protection, the steel industry is imminent, and the implementation of the policy of reducing crude steel is inevitable. Therefore, after 2020, the country proposed the slogan of "dual control of energy consumption" and began to implement the reduction policy by mandatory implementation, and began to implement measures in key industries such as coal, electricity, natural gas, and steel. Among them, crude steel reduction is the top priority in the steel industry, and in the past two years, it has performed particularly well in key provinces and cities such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta.
Since the beginning of 2022, the steel industry has exploded again in March and April and the epidemic in Northeast China and East China has spread again, and demand performance is relatively weak. It then changes to the cost support logic, causing the steel price to fall to a bottom. However, in the middle and late second quarter, as the epidemic gradually improved, under the structure of slow consumption, consumption expectations gradually turned into short supply, and steel prices began to fall sharply.
With the gradual development of this series of supply and demand contradictions, crude steel Nissan and pig iron hit new highs, which has also attracted widespread attention from the market. This is in conflict with the coordinated management of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and the National Bureau of Statistics, which will continue to carry out the national crude steel production reduction work in 2022. Therefore, the call for steel companies to reduce production is becoming stronger and stronger, promoting dynamic balance in the industry to achieve the goal of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices.
Based on this, under the consideration of the dynamic balance between supply and demand of crude steel in 2022, Mysteel estimates that the year-on-year decline in crude steel production and sales in 2022 may be between 2% and 3%, respectively, reaching a year-on-year decline of 2.2% and 2.9%.
In addition, for the reduction rhythm of crude steel, "production based on sales" is a core rule. The reduction of crude steel is appropriately adjusted according to the changes in demand this year. Combined with the above-mentioned deduction of the cycle of crude steel reduction from the perspective of demand release and raw material fundamentals, it can be seen that similar to the situation in previous years, the implementation of dynamic reduction policies in the cycle from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter is an ideal time period. This not only creates a good prerequisite for steel companies to actively reduce production, but also creates a virtuous cycle between supply and demand. Since the demand for raw materials is reflected in the production level of finished materials, steel has decreased volume, raw material demand has been set, and the fundamentals are weak, which may cause the price to run weakly within the cycle, thereby assisting steel companies to selectively prepare for future production recovery. (My Steel Network)
Statement: We respect originality and pay attention to sharing; the copyright of text and pictures belongs to the original author. The purpose of reprinting is to share more information and does not represent the position of this account. If it infringes on your rights, please contact us in time and we will delete it as soon as possible. Thank you.
