[Pincheng Tourism] In May, tourism in all countries around the world is warming up.
htmlOn May 8, Australia introduced "three-step measures" to lift the lockdown in China, which will gradually relax various restrictions introduced during the epidemic and restore residents to normal. On May 12, the EU considered opening borders of countries with the same risk of the epidemic and allowing citizens to travel abroad. France will also invest $19 billion in bailouts to save the tourism industry and will open the "tourism corridor" program with the UK. Italy and Germany have also announced that they will relax restrictions in June. Will these become signals of the return of outbound travel?
restrictions are relaxed, and the border will be reopened
On May 8, the Australian government announced three-step measures to gradually open restrictions: the first stage will allow non-work gatherings of up to 10 people, and family social activities that can accommodate up to 5 visitors except for normal residents; the second stage will allow slightly larger gatherings and more businesses to reopen, with a maximum of 20 people in public gatherings; the third stage will allow non-work gatherings of up to 100 people, and cafes, restaurants and food courts can also be opened for business, and the authorities will also consider opening bars and game rooms. The Australian government aims to complete these three steps by July, when most employees will return to work and interstate travel will return to normal.
If Australia can successfully complete its phased tourism restart plan, it will lay the groundwork for the final recovery of the international tourism industry and provide a good example for other countries.
Australia and New Zealand are also interested in launching a travel corridor program, the proposal officially known as the Trans-Tasman Safe Tourism Zone, allowing residents to travel freely between the two countries, which, if successful, could be the blueprint for a restart of global travel. As some countries are still fighting the COVID-19 outbreak and others are barely infected, links between safe destinations may provide an opportunity to help boost the downturn in neighboring countries, a way of cooperation can also serve as a reference for future global tourism.
htmlOn May 13, a leaked plan showed that the EU will be the first to open borders of countries with the same epidemic risk level. On May 16, Reuters said that Italy, the earliest country in Europe, will reopen its borders to European tourists on June 3, and tourists from EU countries will enter Italy without testing, which undoubtedly brings a glimmer of hope for the recovery of the tourism industry. Moreover, as of May 16, the number of deaths from COVID-19 in Italy fell to 153 in a single day, reaching the lowest level since March 9.It is reported that Germany and Austria will fully open their borders on June 15, and Britain and France are also starting to reach a tourist corridor plan, allowing citizens to achieve free travel between Britain and France in the summer.
Keeping the corridor open will depend on the decline among confirmed cases of COVID-19 in both countries and maintaining similar infection rates. Currently, the British government has cancelled the 14-day quarantine measure for French tourists, which will also apply to most international tourists. CNBC also reported that Middle Eastern countries are relaxing restrictions on social activities during the epidemic.
The huge pressure behind the opening of borders
Graham Turner, CEO of Australian travel company Flight Center, once told CNBC that Australia's opening of international travel may be shelved for another six months. If current efforts to curb the outbreak are successful, domestic travel in Southeast Asia, Australia and North America will begin to rebound in June, while international travel may be in October or September. Currently, as many countries still face the risk of epidemic transmission, Australian Prime Minister Morrison also warned that international travel is unlikely to resume in the short term.
According to Skift, the peak summer tourism season has shown signs of opening up. Tourism practitioners are trying to find ways to meet the current needs of tourists, and tourists still need to remain vigilant.
Various signs of recovery in the current tourism market indicate that although the tourism market this year is destined to be inferior to previous years, the peak summer tourism season may still exist.
Looking at countries around the world, China's domestic travel is gradually recovering, and the data from the May Day holiday has clearly explained this point; European countries have also issued health and safety guidelines and are planning to open some borders. Destinations such as Iceland are also planning to open to the world in mid-June. The borders of many countries have been gradually lifted, and President Trump is also urging states to reopen their economies. However, the United States will have to wait several months to accept international tourists. U.S. officials told Reuters that any decision to relax travel restrictions will largely depend on the security protocols formulated by all countries to curb the spread of the epidemic and the entry restrictions on Americans in these countries.
Not only tourists are eagerly waiting for tourism to recover, but tourism practitioners are also impatient. After months of social isolation, all tourism companies are facing a difficult market environment, and all destinations need tourism income to make up for unprecedented losses.
Last week, Carnival Cruise announced that it would resume eight routes from North America on August 1. In terms of airlines, Lufthansa will resume flights to Los Angeles, Toronto and Mumbai in June, and will also resume some of its capacity due to the impact of the epidemic; Korean Air will also resume 19 international flights in June, including routes to Washington, Seattle, Vancouver, Toronto, Frankfurt, Singapore, Beijing and Kuala Lumpur. The way tourists travel is a highly concerned issue. During long-distance travel, the closed environment of aircraft and cruise ships requires passengers to maintain certain isolation measures. Especially after the outbreak of many epidemics on Princess Cruises at the beginning of the year, the second outbreak of the epidemic after tourism recovery will become a major concern.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) calls for strict prevention of secondary outbreaks of the epidemic during the recovery of tourism, but at the same time, the quarantine measures should not slow down the recovery speed. The latest analysis report released by IATA on May 13 shows that long-distance or international travel is the most severely affected by the epidemic, and the isolation measures when passengers arrive may further damage people's confidence in air travel. Global unified safety measures based on risk levels are crucial to restarting tourism.
IATA expects global passenger demand (measured as income passenger kilometers RPK) to be 24% lower than in 2019, 32% lower than IATA's forecast for 2021 in October 2019, and does not expect to exceed 2019 levels by 2023.
As international markets open and economic recovery, air travel will grow further from the sluggishness of 2020. However, even by 2025, global RPK will be 10% lower than previous forecasts. However, if the economic recovery and travel restrictions are slowed down, and travel restrictions are extended to the third quarter, and even a second outbreak of the epidemic occurs, the recovery of air travel will be further delayed. In this case, the global RPK in 2021 may be 34% lower than the 2019 level and 41% lower than the previous forecast for 2021.
