Everything Editor: Bi Luming
Recently, the tension between Russia and Ukraine has suddenly escalated, which has also hit the global financial market.
On the 24th local time, the RTS index, the major stock index of Moscow, Russia, plummeted by more than 10% during the session, hitting a new low in 13 months. As of press time, the decline has narrowed.
In addition, under the expectation that the Federal Reserve may aggressively raise interest rates in , European and American financial markets are also turbulent. As of press time, in terms of European stocks, the European Stoke 50 index fell nearly 4%, the French CAC40 index fell 3.52%, the German DAX index fell 3.4%, and the European Stoke 600 index fell nearly 4%. It should be noted that the decline of US stock once expanded. As of press time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.77% to 610 points; the Nasdaq fell 2.76%, and the S&P 500 fell about 2.25%.
At the same time, the VIX panic index soared, now rising 23.33% to 35.58. WTI crude oil futures fell to 3% at one point and now fell 2.22% to $83.25 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell 1.94% to $86.182 per barrel.
Russian financial market fluctuated sharply
Affected by geopolitical factors, the Russian market value weighted index fell by more than 10% at one time, hitting a new low in the past 13 months. Moscow Exchange index also fell below 3200 points for a time, setting a new low since December 2020.
In the foreign exchange market, Russian ruble continued to decline. As of 21:00 Beijing time, the US dollar rose nearly 2% against the Russian ruble exchange rate to 78.85.
Industry analysts pointed out that there are three main reasons for the sharp fluctuations in the market:
1 is the recent geopolitical situation, which has caused some investors to worry. We still need to pay close attention to the relevant news trends in the future.
Second, the Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy, and the market is worried that the European Central Bank will follow up. In 2021, major European and American stock indexes strengthened, mainly benefiting from the abundant liquidity brought by the loose monetary policy of , which exceeded .
Third, the progress of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought uncertainty to the European economic recovery and hit investor sentiment. Marvin Loh, a senior macro strategist at State Street Global Market, pointed out that the emergence of the Omickron variant strain and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve have caused significant fluctuations in major European and American stock indexes. The European region has caused investors' confidence in the region to be very fragile in the near future due to the re-implementation of travel and liquidity restrictions by many EU EU countries.
Natural gas , oil prices may be affected
As the relationship between Ukraine and Russia deteriorates rapidly, the commodity market has also been greatly affected.
According to Shanghai Securities News , in terms of natural gas supply, Yang Aozheng, chief Chinese analyst at FXTM, believes that Europe's natural gas supply is almost monopolized by Russia, and Russia supplies about 35% of Europe's natural gas, and currently both the US-Russian relations and the European-Russian relations are As the situation in Ukraine deteriorates, if sanctions occur between the two sides and Russia uses natural gas supply as a countermeasure, the natural gas price trend will rise again, and oil prices and global energy tensions will be difficult to ease.
According to Russia Today, citing an energy industry executive, European energy prices will almost certainly soar sharply once Russia's natural gas supply to Europe is interrupted, and the end result will be European taxpayers pay for it.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine may also affect crude oil prices. JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman said last week that international oil prices could soar to $150 a barrel in the first quarter of 2022 if the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine leads to a supply shock.
According to JPMorgan's general equilibrium model, once the contradiction between Russia and Ukraine escalates, rising oil prices will reduce crude oil production. The impact on the global economy is to reduce global GDP by 1.6%, and may push global inflation higher in the first half of this year to 7.2%.
Daily Economic News Comprehensive Shanghai Securities News and Market Data
(Mercedes-E-Journal App publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, and does not mean that it agrees with its views or confirms its description. The content or data of the article is for reference only. Does not constitute investment advice. Investors should act on this basis at their own risk. )
Daily Economic News
