Source: Guotai Junan Securities
is in the endless subway station in Tokyo. Those foreigners who look at complex maps are often in sharp contrasts with Japanese people who move rapidly with light cars around them.
▼ Tokyo Metro route
but this is just the subway part, there is no complicated Tokyo Metro that includes JR and private iron
.
shuttles through all corners of Japan. The three -dimensional road facilities in the city are complete, and even a very remote countryside can always find rail transit. All
is not related to the infrastructure boom in Japan for more than 40 years.
Guotai Junan Construction Team recently released in -depth reports "Compared with Japan, domestic infrastructure space is still high, leading potential is still strong", which has given us a glimpse of Japan's in infrastructure in the past 40 years, as well as my country's rail transit facilities. Potential.
1 Japan Infrastructure Frenzy 40 years of
Ambition
Japan -based infrastructure is successfully bid for bidding in the 1959 Tokyo Olympics.
was approved by the 1960 National Income Double Plan, which superimposed a number of economic development policies, further promoting the population to concentrate towards the city cluster. In addition,
, in addition, the " Japan Islands Islands Islands Reconstruction theory" proposed by former Japanese Prime Minister also contributed.
was born in Tanaka Koko, which was born in the remote countryside of Shinki, Japan, was anxious about the development gap between Tokyo and his hometown. In addition, he was a first -class architect. "" ".
▼ Former Japanese Prime Minister Tanaka
proposed the Japanese islands renovation theory
. In order to destroy the gap between rural and cities.
"At the same time, the disadvantages of excessive urban secrets and overwhelming rural areas at the same time, nationwide, implement the re -layout of the industry, fully use wisdom and knowledge, build a new national railway line, highway, and rectify the communication network. It will definitely be able to eliminate the gap between cities and rural areas. "Creation Theory", etc., Guotai Junan Securities Research
like this A new land development plan quickly got the support of Japanese voters who had to leave their hometown for work.
During the period from 1960 to 1974, factors such as urbanization and construction of superimposed islands transformation plans, Olympic franchise, and rapid population growth, etc., jointly promoted the spray growth of Japanese civil engineering and building demand. The total investment was between 1960-74 years? From 2.5 trillion yen to 2.9.7 trillion yen, an annual growth of nearly 20 %.
▼ Japanese building estimated investment amount
has grown in the 1960s in the 1960s, nearly 60 years (trillion yen)
Data Source: Japan General Affairs and Provincial Statistics Bureau, Guotai Junan Securities Research
19 Although the oil crisis in 74 has caused Tanaka to step down, However, it still maintains the huge forces in the Liberal Democratic Party. In the following 10 years,
maintained the "Tanaka Route without Tanaka" in Japan. Gao Jingqi can be seen. After the signing of
"Square Agreement" in 1985, Japan's land prices showed a foaming trend, a large amount of funds poured into the real estate market, and the housing construction industry also had excessive prosperity. According to statistics,
According to statistics, in 1985-90, the construction area of the new house in Japan increased rapidly from 200 million square meters, an annual increase of 7 %; It reached the highest value of nearly forty years in 1987.
2 Japan Infrastructure Frenzy 40 years of
Infrastructure Stimulation is that after entering the 1990s in the 1990s, Japan opened the "lost 20 years" after entering the 1990s.As the Japanese economy has faced too fast downward pressure, the government has conducted three infrastructure stimulus economy.
In 1991, after the breakdown of the Japanese economic bubble, the Japanese government began to use a significant strengthening of public fiscal expenditure to promote infrastructure construction to support the economy. This round of infrastructure stimulus led the growth rate of GDP to 3.1 % in 1996.
In 1998, the Asian financial crisis broke out, and Japan once again strengthened infrastructure investment, making the GDP growth rate of 2.78 % in 2000.
In 2008, the US subprime mortgage crisis broke out, and the growth rate of Japan's GDP fell sharply to -5.42 % in 2009. This round of infrastructure stimulus brought GDP growth to 4.19 % in 2010.
▼ "Lost Twenty"
Three Large -scale stimulation Infrastructure Based on the bottom of the economy
data Source: Wind, Sina Finance and other
2011 At the beginning, the three important events again helped the Japanese construction industry again Back. On March 11, 2011,
occurred in the Pacific waters in northeast Japan. The demand for renovation of infrastructure, reconstruction, and renovation of houses and residential buildings after the earthquake was surging in the Pacific Sea in northeast Japan.
012 The first Japanese prime minister Abe's three launched the "Abe Economics" policy, which is summarized as three arrows, that is, positive financial policies, flexible fiscal policies, promoting and developing private investment. Infrastructure, as the main way to increase government expenditure, It is self -evident.
and the success of the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo in September 2013, which greatly inspired a series of public roads, stadiums, etc. to build and repair and upgrade.
has only increased the growth of other projects such as social security expenditures such as infrastructure stimuli overlay, and eventually increased the debt rate of the Japanese government, and the proportion of debt balances increased from 69 % to more than 230 %. Therefore Essence
▼ 1991-2010
Japanese government debt account for GDP to rise
Data Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan Securities Research ML5
is also a learning model
. At present, the per capita possession and density of Japanese infrastructure ranks leading in the world. Because the ground rails are everywhere, Japan is also called a "country on the orbit."
As of 2017:
Japan Railway's per capita occupation is about 134 kilometers/million people, which is significantly higher than 91 km/million people in China;
Japanese road per capita is about 96 kilometers/10,000 people, which is obviously higher than China than China than China, which is obviously higher than China than China 34 kilometers/10,000 people;
looked at the urban circle rails, and the per capita preservation of the rail transit in Tokyo, Japan is also significantly higher than the four major first -tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
Japanese -based infrastructure is not only higher than that of China, but even much higher than the United States. In 2017,
was nearly 300 kilometers per square kilometer, and the values of the United States and China were less than 100/50 kilometers per square kilometer, respectively.
Japan Railway density is about 450 kilometers per square kilometer, and the United States and China are about 260/136 kilometers per square kilometer, respectively.
accompanied by economic development and urbanization process, Japan has also emerged as a large number of excellent construction companies. When the inflection point of the demographic dividend has gradually arrived, the improvement of engineering efficiency, technological upgrade, and differentiation of financing have jointly promoted the improvement of the industry concentration, and gradually gradually improved, and gradually gradually improved, and gradually gradually improved the concentration of the industry. Forms the four major leaders of Dacheng Construction, Dalin Group, Clear Water Construction , and Kashima Construction .
has four major advantages, ensuring its core position in the Japanese construction market.
Technical Advantages:
Japanese architecture leaders have decades of engineering items and have accumulated and developed research and development. They all have their own technical research and development centers, which can focus on developing new materials and new technologies.
, Rushui Construction, has established a research and development center as early as 1944. It has developed into a large -scale Institute of Clean Water Technology. It has carried out extensive research on structural safety, basic engineering, underground engineering, energy development, earthquake science and other aspects. And explore.
has many leading technologies and services, such as Kashima Construction, such as Kashima reduction method, Kashima design, Kashima's advanced structural control and basic isolation technology.
▼ Japanese leading technical advantage in Japan
Obviously leading other small and medium -sized companies
Data Source: Company Annual report, company official website, Guotai Junan Securities Research
industrial chain advantage htmm L0 Japanese building leader across the downstream and downstream of the industry chain and can provide full -scale services., such as Kashima construction, involves many businesses such as civil engineering, real estate development and new energy development. Its civil construction business covers many fields such as commercial buildings, stadiums, Daoqiao Tunnels, etc., and can provide design consulting, engineering contracting, construction management, construction management , Owner's Agency, Project Management and other links. In addition to the construction industry,
also involves other related businesses, which further enhances comprehensive strength and project undertaking capabilities.
, such as Kashima Construction in comprehensive development involved in coastal industrial areas, can combine infrastructure businesses including reclamation, road construction, port construction, etc. with renewable resources, nuclear power plants, and ocean development to adapt to social development Demand.
profit advantage:
Japanese building leading technique and industry chain advantages constitute the key foundation of profitability.
In addition, cost control is also an important means of polishing profit advantage. For example, Kashima Construction has strictly controlled costs, actively using high -tech such as pre -construction methods and robots. Interest rates increased from 5.71 % to 12.7 %, net interest rate increased from 1 % to 5.7 %, and ROE increased from 3.8 % to 15.5 %.
financing advantage:
Japanese architecture faucet is trying to reduce leverage. At present, the asset -liability ratio is below 65 %, which is far lower than other construction companies. Therefore The smooth progress of business.
4 China Rail Train
is still far from developed countries.
has recently emphasized the objective facts of 's low per capita infrastructure in my country at a press conference.
"At present, my country's per capita infrastructure stock is equivalent to 20 % -30 % of Western developed countries, and there are still many shortcomings in infrastructure fields such as transportation, water conservancy, energy, ecological and environmental protection, and social livelihood. Generally speaking, my country is in China. There is still great space and potential in infrastructure fields. "
is awarded the current status of the Greater Bay Area such as Tokyo and New York, and domestic rail transit construction still has huge development space.
is like 30 million people in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area nearly 3,000 kilometers, while the Beijing -Shanghai exceeds 20 million people only about 700 kilometers.
▼ Tokyo Metropolitan Rail Transit Determction
Data Source: Tokyo Metro
▼ Hitml5 Data Source: 911 ML0 specifically: , per capita railway density and per capita railway ownership, still significant Back behind developed countries.
in 2018, the density of the domestic railway road network was 136 km/10,000 square kilometers (according to the business mileage caliber), an increase of 37 km/10,000 square kilometers year -on -year, but there is still a certain gap in major overseas developed countries such as Germany, France, and the United States.
▼ my country's railway density is less than developed countries (KM/10,000 KM²)
Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Wikipedia, Guotai Junan Securities Research on
Note: Use business mileage diameter
to preserve the per capita preservation of the country, country Inner 94 km/million People (in accordance with the business mileage caliber), while the United States and Germany have more than 400, and about 134 km/million people in Japan; if the total mileage caliber is lower.
▼ my country's railway per capita is less than developed countries (KM/10,000)
Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Wikipedia Encyclopedia, Guotai Junan Securities Research
, highway, domestic development level is still lower than overseas developed countries.
In 2018, the total mileage of domestic highways increased by 1.5 % year -on -year by about 4.85 million kilometers in 2018, ranking third in the world, of which about 143,000 kilometers in the world ranked first in the world.
, there is still a large gap in domestic highway density compared to developed countries.In terms of
section, according to statistics from the Industrial Information Network, the east has reached 118 km/100 square kilometers, but the west is only 27 kilometers per square kilometer.
domestic highway per capita preservation is about 34 kilometers per 10,000 people lower than the United States (over 200), Japan (about 96) and Germany (John 78).
In terms of the per capita ownership of highway, about 103 km/million people in China are lower than the United States (about 307) and Germany (about 105).
▼ Domestic highway density has gradually increased
Data Source: Wind, Wikipedia, Guotai Junan Securities Research
▼ Domestic highway density is still greatly enhanced space
data. Source: Wind, Wikipedia, Guojunan Securities Research
5 East and west gaps
Comprehensive The shortcomings are still in
, so is it necessary to continue to increase the domestic railway and rail transit density?
, the Eastern Region still needs to pipe the network encryption
with the in -depth advancement of the new type of urbanization in China and the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area and Yangtze River Delta . The intercourse, which is represented, can effectively alleviate the urban congestion pressure and reduce the burden on the ground road.
Eastern region's economy, strong fiscal strength, and controllable debt levels, especially the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao have national -level policy support, and the population scale is high. Therefore, it has the financial foundation and encryption needs to support infrastructure construction.
▼ The Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao and other eastern coastal areas
fiscal strength
Data Source: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research on
, Western region supplement shortcomings demand requirements Still planning in
, on this way Judging from the completion, the remaining gaps of more central and western provinces are still high, so the pressure on the planning period is greater. On the other hand,
, on the other hand, the infrastructure density of more central and western provinces is significantly lower.
In addition, policies such as the power of the transportation power and the Western Luhai New Channel also support the construction of infrastructure in the central and western regions.
▼ Taking highway as an example
Middle and Western more provinces in more provinces. The decline in the proportion of the principal is favorable to expand the channels of infrastructure financing, and the special debt The quota is expected to increase the proportion of infrastructure.
, economic downlink pressure still has
in the third quarter of GDP, falling to 6 % in the third quarter, and declined in 7 consecutive quarters. In 2020, GDP growth was under pressure and bottom line.
manufacturing overall downturn. At the same time, considering that the limited investment in real estate financing, the import and export of imports and exports are still uncertain, the consumption is still weak, and the importance of infrastructure stability will increase.
On November 27th, the Ministry of Finance issued news that some new special debt limits were recently added in advance in advance of 2020; at the same time, it was required to implement the amount of special bonds in accordance with regulations as soon as possible. It can be used at the beginning to ensure the formation of physical work, and to form an effective stretch of the economy as soon as possible.
▼ 2019 Local Government
New Special Treasury , Is the spirit of adjusting the reverse cycle On the other hand, it is also good for ensuring the source of infrastructure funds, and it will help important infrastructure projects that meet the requirements to promote speed up.
According to the "Statistics of the Transportation Industry Development Statistics in 2018", by 2030, the railway target was 200,000 kilometers and high -speed rail 45,000 kilometers. As of the end of 2018, there is still a small gap between the 131,000 KM/high -speed rail 29,000 KM.
The current railway traversal intersection has been promoted by 4 trillion bidding. In the last year of the 13th Five -Year Plan of 2020, there was a need for a rushing period of work.
▼ 2018 Rail Communication Restart Restart so far
Cumulative projects over trillion
Data Source: Official Website of the National Development and Reform Commission of the National Development and Reform Commission, etc.
