However, the Yin government has made many seemingly contradictory decisions on "traditional problems" such as the Taiwan Strait, THAAD, and the internal affairs of chaebols and party struggles. In addition, the low support rate has broken the record, which has made the outside wo

[Text/Observer Network Columnist Chang Luowen]

South Korean President Yoon Seo-yeol After taking office on May 10, 2022, he has been in power for a hundred days in August.

This is an important time node for examining the new president in South Korea, which uses American political system. However, the Yin government has made many seemingly contradictory decisions on "traditional problems" such as the Taiwan Strait, THAAD, and the internal affairs of chaebols and party struggles. In addition, the low support rate has broken the record, which has made the outside world a little confused - is it really "prosecutors do not understand politics"?

chaebol, amnesty: did the privileged class win or lost?

The first major festival after the new President Yoon Seok-yeol took office. On the eve of the 15th Restoration Day of the South Korean government announced the " Restoration Day " amnesty list, and 1,693 people received the president's administrative amnesty, commutation of sentence or rehabilitation (restoring business and employment rights). Among them:

Samsung "master" Lee Jae-yong , and received amnesty completely free (Lee Jae-yong was involved in the case of Choi Soon-sil's intervention in the national affairs and bribery case. He was sentenced to 2 and a half years. He was sentenced on July 29, 2022 and was released from prison early in August 2021. The punishment for restricting employment within five years of release from prison has not yet ended);

Lotte Group Chairman Xin Dongbin (one of the suspects in the Zhang Ziyan case), received amnesty and retaliation;

also has the shipbuilding giant STX President Jiang Deshou, who was sentenced to 10 years in 2014 for corruption in corruption, and was sentenced to 10 years in for corruption, this time he received amnesty and retaliation;

Zhang Shizhou, president of Dongguo Steel, was imprisoned in 2016 and was released on parole in 2018, received retaliation this time, and completely returned to his free self.

South Korea's official explanation is very grand: "The focus of this pardon is to restore people's livelihood and the economy." "Considering that the current national economic crisis needs to be solved urgently, major economic personnel who are able to promote national economic development will be included in the pardon list." This is also the official reason why former President Lee Myung-bak , former Gyeongsangnam Dodo Governor ( head of of provincial administrative region) Kim Kyung-soo and other politicians "failed" one after another and were pleased to "remain in".

is equivalent to the South Korean government's public recognition that even if it is the president, life will not continue even if it is the president?

short version answer: Yes.

Lee Jae-yong and former US President Bush Jr. (Data photo: Korean media)

long version answer: Yes, not right.

Due to historical reasons, in order to develop heavy industry, the South Korean official once used "one industry and one society" as the dominant idea, and used free land, low-priced electricity, and unified purchase and sale of domestic goods to support several monopoly consortiums to dominate the economy, which brought a brilliant and miraculous economic leap to South Korea.

But with the development of the country, the hereditary chaebol has become the true uncrowned king of South Korea. The total economic output of South Korea's top ten companies accounts for more than 40% of the national GDP (the peak reaches 80%), far exceeding the proportion of ordinary countries. Samsung is even more "the chaebol among the chaebols", accounting for one-quarter of the revenue of the top ten companies. From daily necessities and convenience stores to energy and shipbuilding, from hospitals born to universities educated, from cars and ships to textbooks used, Koreans joke that what they can't escape in South Korea is "tax, death, and Samsung."

There is an unwritten "Three Five Law" in the judicial circle of South Korea, that is, if the chaebol is convicted, he only needs to be sentenced to three delays and five times, and he does not have to go to jail. Lee Jae-yong's father and former president of Samsung Group , Lee Kun-hee, was convicted of bribery and fraud, but he had never seen the appearance of a cell before. Lee Jae-yong was sentenced to five years in prison for the first time in 2017. In name, it was a special judgment made in the unprecedented "political interference case". In fact, it was the government's fulfillment of its campaign promise and intentionally weakening the Conservative Party and chaebol.

In order to get the "head of the family" out of prison early, the Lee family took out 1 trillion won (about 5.18 billion yuan) to build many semi-charitable hospitals; donated 25,000 artworks and antiques from Lee Kun-hee's private heritage, including many Korean national treasures loaded with numbers, as well as the original works of paintings by famous Western artists such as Monet and Picasso .It is said that the Lee family donated a total of 60% of Lee Kun-hee's estate. After that, the polls showed that 62% of South Korean people "supported the pardon of Lee Jae-yong", and only 27% opposed it.

Lee Jae-yong was sentenced to prison (Source: Seoul News)

A set of public relations combination punches, and the "public opinion" changed, but the Moon Jae-in government was in the limelight at that time and refused to let go. The South Korean Ministry of Justice firmly denies and criticizes the idea of ​​"pardoning Lee Jae-yong".

Oppose Lee Jae-yong’s public petition (Photo source: South Korea’s “Voice of the People”)

In 2021, when Lee Jae-yong’s first pardon was possible, the labor group “National People’s Action” organized an opposition march (Photo source: South Korean media)

There is not enough public opinion pressure inside, and the Lee family has a second trick, which is to introduce external political pressure to elevate Lee Jae-yong’s imprisonment to the level of affecting the “economy of the United States and South Korea”.

As a pawn, the conservative Korean media linked Samsung Group's intention to invest $17 billion in the United States to establish a chip factory with Lee Jae-yong's release from prison, creating public opinion that if Lee Jae-yong is not pardoned, the US chip strategy, South Korea's political status, and South Korea's semiconductor leadership will be damaged. Before the then President Moon Jae-in visited the United States, he directly showed off to President Moon at the South Korean Chamber of Commerce, saying, "As one of the world's largest chip companies, if Samsung cannot actively support the efforts of President Biden and , South Korea's position as a strategic partner of the United States will be threatened."

The third move of the Li family is to pull other chaebols directly to Blue House .

After three generations of extensive marriage and cooperative management, and the "hard-core" relationship network brought by the shameful Ju (such as the Zhang Ziyan case), a closed class of "the rich family vs. the rich family vs. the bamboo door is facing the bamboo door", which is like Jia Shi, Wang Xue in the Dream of Red Mansions.

So, after Moon Jae-in returned to China when he visited the United States, he quickly arranged for the heads of the four major groups of Samsung, LG, Hyundai, and SK to go to the Blue House for dinner. During the meal, the four major groups all suggested that Moon Jae-in pardon Lee Jae-yong. The front page headline of the conservative media the next day was "The president and the consortium discussed the amnesty of Lee Jae-yong." At this time, Lee Jae-yong had been in prison for several months and had been hiding in the hospital under the pretext of recuperation. Although the tug-of-war is difficult, it can be regarded as an unprecedented punishment for the chaebol. Moreover, Moon Jae-in's rule is in the later stages and he must start preparing for the changes in the regime.

The then President Moon Jae-in and representatives of the four major groups had a meal at the Blue House (Source: Yonhap News Agency )

For this reason, the South Korean Ministry of Justice specially revised the parole regulations.

According to Korean law, offenders who serve over 80% of the sentences are eligible to apply for parole review. In early July 2021, the South Korean Ministry of Justice suddenly relaxed the review standards for parole subjects, stipulating that 60% of those who have served their sentences can be included in the scope of review. By July 28, Lee Jae-yong will serve 60% (20 months) of sentence and successfully become the subject of review.

htmlIn early August, the Parole Review Committee of the Ministry of Justice held a closed-door meeting, and Lee Jae-yong's parole bill was passed. Legal Minister Park Fan-jeong, who previously claimed that he would "strictly enforce the law", immediately approved the resolution and said that there was no "special treatment". The Ministry of Justice decided to parole Lee Jae-yong after comprehensively considering the national economic situation and international economic environment under the normalization of the epidemic, public opinion, and attitude towards serving prisons.

This drama of civilian presidents against hereditary chaebols ended with Lee Jae-yong jailing for 207 days. Moon Jae-in gave Lee parole, but he was still prohibited from participating in Samsung's business activities. After all, in another five years, Lee Jae-yong will still be Lee Jae-yong, and Moon Jae-in will only be Moon Jae-in.

After Moon Jae-in stepped down, he returned to his hometown to work hard to farm (Photo source: Moon Jae-in social media)

So although Yoon Seo-yeo became famous and won the ranks by overthrowing Park Geun-hye and investigating Choi Soon-sil and Lee Jae-yong, it is on the surface irreconcilable with the chaebols, but in fact, Yoon's prosecutor group and his conservative party are deeply bound to the chaebols, conservative media, and pro-Japanese and pro-US groups. In addition, Moon Jae-in's parole for Lee was first, President Yoon's pardon for Lee Jae-yong was only completed in the last process, which was a favor with little substantive significance.

And under the turmoil of Samsung Consortium, a July poll showed that more than 70% of the people who agreed to pardon Lee Jae-yong seemed to declare that Koreans didn't know how to live in South Korea without chaebols. This data has a decisive role in saving Yoon Seo-yeo's expectations of falling. After the list of amnesty list was released, the Gallup South Korean poll showed that Yoon Seo-yeo's praise rate finally stopped the continuous decline since taking office, and rebounded to 25%.

, but also for the sake of the people's expectations. Former President Lee Myung-bak was unable to be on the amnesty list because "public opinion" was not allowed, and Yoon Seok-young made a decision personally.

60.7% of the respondents clearly objected to the poll of "pardon Lee Myung-bak" (Photo source: KBS survey agency "Korean Research")

In order to "save a bowl of water", politicians from the Democratic Party background who could have been pardoned were also excluded from one-size-fits-all (such as Gyeongsangnam Dodo Governor Kim Kyung-soo, Moon Jae-in's assistant, was sentenced to two years in prison for hiring online water troops to affect the election), which was considered to be implicated by Lee Myung-bak. It also shows that the Yin government has taken great pains to maximize the political value of this amnesty.

People's hearts, reform: Should water carry a boat or capsize it?

Yoon Seok-yeol is so embarrassed by the inside, and there are several main reasons:

First, there are constant scandals and many family gossip news, which seriously reduced the persuasiveness of the character "not afraid of the powerful prosecutor" and led to the shift of grassroots voters. The deep reason is that the contradictions within the Conservative Party were not settled;

2 During the campaign, in order to attack Moon Jae-in's governance, the tone of housing prices, employment and other issues was too high, and after taking office, he could not come up with a solution, which disappointed middle-class voters;

3: Yoon's political foundation was originally shallow. After Park Geun-hye was released from prison, she diverted the "heart of pushing" of the conservative party group and the people. Yoon's political star halo became weak, and wealthy voters began to look for new conservative leaders.

These problems can actually be solved through the three-piece set of gold, public relations and judicial system according to the previous method. Why is it not useful this time? The core reason is not that the chaebols are unwilling to cooperate. After all, the Blue House is strong, the commander of the flowing water, and the prison door may not necessarily lead who comes in and leaves first.

First, this president is not the other president. South Korea is on the verge of on the odds. The situation where the opposition party has an absolute advantage in the parliament must at least last until the 2024 parliamentary election. Before that, the president's diplomatic role is relatively complete, and his internal affairs are more of a mascot of the democratic system. Not only can he not promote the implementation of policies, but he must also be careful at all times to avoid being caught by the opposition party.

Second, Yoon Seo-yeol is not a Korean politician in the traditional sense. Before running for president, he offended the privileged class and was in a semi-exile state for a long time. He has been handling cases in local prosecutors. After entering the central government, only the disciples and officials of the procuratorial system were available. The head of the Blue House Security Office (the person in charge of the president's personal safety) even found his elementary school classmate Kim Sung-han to take responsibility. By the time he ascended the throne of president, the procuratorial system was no longer the same as before, and changed from a sharp sword to a dull knife. His advantages were no longer, and his influence was naturally greatly reduced.

South Korean procuratorial system is a special product after World War II . It has a certain compromise at the beginning of its design, leaving a structural "backdoor" to protect pro-Japanese consortiums from being liquidated, safeguard the interests of landlord class , and facilitate the United States to "surveillance Korean democracy". The Procuratorate has always been the only subject with investigation power, the only subject with investigation power, the only subject with investigation power, the only subject with prosecution to the court, and the power to investigate the incumbent head of state, which is equivalent to the five-in-one judge, prosecutor, public security police, national security police, and judicial police .

Yong Seok-young once took charge of the "Anti-Corruption Investigation Department" which is specialized in crimes committed by high-level civil servants and commercial enterprises: Ro Moo-hyun , Park Geun-hye, Lee Myung-bak and other former presidents are all investigated by this department, and have many similarities with the Tokyo District Procuratorate Special Search Department. It is always at the center of a political storm. If you don't understand politics, you will be defeated when you get on the bus. It is also because he wants to defend these privileges on behalf of vested interest group . Yoon Seok-yeol firmly opposes Moon Jae-in's judicial reform and refuses to "castrate" himself. In the end, he resigns as the prosecutor general and turns against Moon Jae-in.

Moon Jae-in's tenure on the reform of the procuratorial and judicial system has a strong sense of idealism and personal revenge. Several legal ministers such as Cao Guo , Qiu Meiai , Park Fanjie and other ministers have been one after another. Wen's assistant and confidant have been repeatedly attacked by political sniper and lost their careers to prison. At a terrible price, they have achieved brilliant results:

The Crime Investigation Department of Senior Public Officials (Public Mediation) officially established a listing office on January 21, 2021. Yoon Seo-yeol's base anti-corruption investigation department, and the "special search power" that carried out political revenge in the name of "anti-corruption" died;

"Amendment to the Criminal Procedure Law" and "Amendment to the Procuratorate Law" were passed by the Congress, and the Procuratorate's right to terminate the investigation was deprived;

In March 2022, with the absolute grasp of Congress, Moon Jae-in fought hard before leaving office and forcibly passed the "Prosecution and Search" bill that completely separated the procuratorate's reconnaissance power from the police reconnaissance power, nominally completed the dismemberment of the power monster of the procuratorate system (in fact, the bill leaves room for space, and the procuratorate's reconnaissance power can be temporarily granted through the presidential executive order).

It can be imagined that when former Attorney General Yoon Seo-yeon took office as president, the only sharp sword in his hand was sharpened with a bare blade. It was so helpless that he was offended by the old politicians who had offended during the anti-judicial reform and the opposition party that had an absolute advantage in Congress played Yi Yin Huo Guang in front of him every day. He had no one to use it, so helpless.

Taiwan Strait, THAAD: Should the new President of Scotland be pro-China or rejected?

The complex internal political situation faced by President Yin is probably the deep-seated reason for the swaying of South Korea's foreign policy.

In the Taiwan Strait situation, Yoon Seo-young used the reason to bypass the problem of meeting with Pelosi . Foreign Minister Park Jin was on a business trip at the time, and Pelosi only met Kim Jin-pyo, the Speaker of the same identity. South Korea deliberately distanced itself from the high-standard reception standards that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida personally took, and also avoided the "obligation" of proactively expressing his position as a US military alliance. It seems that he is unwilling to act as a prop for puppet show . In order to appease the United States and to test China, on the THAAD issue, even against the backdrop of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea, the South Korean government has taken a tough stance different from the past and insisted on putting the THAAD base into operation. This compromise and appeasement have a realistic effect on South Korea's domestic political balance, avoiding providing ammunition to opposition parties and pro-US and Japanese conservative party groups during the president's weak period.

Defense News Related report screenshot

However, the use and exploitation of the United States, and the independence and development of South Korea, are irreconcilable contradictions. The fading and deformed prosperity cannot conceal the damage to the national standards of the colonial "alliance". The Korean people who pursue the restoration of ownership of the peninsula will sooner or later part ways with the United States and its agents at the turning point in history. THAAD's deployment in South Korea has been a political conspiracy from the beginning, with the purpose of plunging into a stinger. According to the needs of the United States, this little trick is destined to be just a disharmonious wave in the long river of history.

However, this kind of "open conspiracy" does cause a lot of unnecessary trouble at this stage.

2022 marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea, the 350th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan, and the 20th anniversary of the proposal of the concept of the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone. The total economic output of China, Japan and South Korea accounts for 70% of Asia and 20% of global GDP. The total import and export volume of the three countries accounts for about 35% of the total global trade volume. The three countries have strong complementarity in resources, technology, capital and markets, but mutual investment in the three countries only accounts for 6% of the total foreign investment, and the trade dependence is only 21.3%, far lower than 64.8% of the EU of and 40.3% of the of North American Free Trade Zone.

This is from the completion of the trade zone, a large market of 1.5 billion people will be formed. China, Japan and South Korea are expected to increase by 2.9%, 0.5% and 3.1% respectively. The reason why this free trade agreement, which has benefited from the present and future generations, cannot be called out is that in addition to the internal factors of industrial structure conflicts and trade protection, the external factors are mainly because countries outside the region take advantage of the lack of political mutual trust in the three countries and constantly use various "plans" to undermine East Asian unity.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU, the " Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Partnership " initiated by ASEAN , the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP), and the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Negotiation (FTA) They were originally relatively simple regional economic cooperation frameworks, but the United States and Europe wanted to harvest the cake increase brought about by the growth of emerging Asian economies , but they were unwilling to see Asia's influence increase and destroy the original cake distribution model. Therefore, trade tools were quickly politicized: TPP was used to pry open the Asian market and restrain China; TTIP was used by the United States and Europe to blend trade rules in the fields of investment access, competition policies, intellectual property rights, etc.; TTIP was the main battlefield for the right to speak for unified standards and market rules.

On the one hand, China, Japan and South Korea must withstand external coercion and temptation, and on the other hand, they must pragmatically deal with the ups and downs of the relationship caused by the use of issues such as history, security, and territory. At the same time, they must seek common development, just like a small boat crossing a reef, which is very difficult.

As ally, Japan and South Korea have indeed always enjoyed the "advantages" of the United States: Obama requires Japan and South Korea to express their views on the TPP issue. After Japan and South Korea took the team, Trump quit the TPP negotiations on the first day of taking office; Trump established the "Economic Prosperity Network (EPN)" to weaken China's supply chain advantages for compulsory requirements for South Korea to join, and EPN was directly invalidated after Biden took office.

But if the regime rotation affects policy inheritance, it is very consistent in quarrels: Bush Jr., Obama and Trump all suppress South Korea by imposing tariffs on steel, aluminum products and automobiles, and amend the terms of the South Korea-US Free Trade Agreement in a favorable direction. So much so that South Korea and Japan have no choice but to do so, so they can either tie up further to avoid the chariots turning sharply, or to give in further, waiting for the situation to change.

With the development of historical processes, the United States' methods against China are becoming more and more direct, the intensity is getting higher and higher, but the types are gradually decreasing, and the effects are also declining day by day. Chip 4, which is about to come, is the latest "Fulongsuo".

chip, market: Who is leading who?

The so-called "chip 4 alliance" is a "industrial alliance" dominated by the United States and requires South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan to join. Sifang controls 73% of the world's equipment production capacity, 87% of the foundry production capacity, and 91% of the design and manufacturing capacity, which can be said to be the current control of chips.

is in line with it. The " Chip and Science Act " just passed by the Biden administration blocks technology output, cuts off cooperation in scientific research institutions, and provides a total of US$52 billion in subsidies to chip companies investing in the United States. If you accept subsidies, you cannot invest in the chip industry in other countries, intending to control the future of chip technology.

To put it bluntly, the United States hopes to squeeze China out of the semiconductor supply chain, exacerbate the semiconductor supply shortage in China's industry, and hinder the development of , the fourth industrial revolution of China.

There are two completely different views on this round of encirclement.

pessimists believe that:

Chip 4 If the situation is in progress, the United States has design and technology, Taiwan, China and Taiwan provide OEM production capacity, South Korea manufactures memory, and Japan provides production and supporting facilities (such as photoresist , etc.), the United States can have absolute voice on the production capacity of other three parties with its huge advantages in materials, software, equipment, etc. Intel , TSMC, Samsung and others will further strengthen their control over the industry chain.

will force China to cope with the unfavorable situation of unsafe capacity supply and lagging capacity expansion in the short term. In the medium term, Chinese companies are subject to various restrictions on technology research and development, and their interaction with the most advanced technologies is lacking or weakening, and technology research and development and talent flow may be disconnected. In the long run, once Chinese companies lose the opportunity to set standards and lose the opportunity to climb to higher added value, they will be in a trailing state for a long time, and talent training and technological innovation will be significantly slowed down. In addition to the technological advantages of

, the United States also has policy tools to make Chip 4 an involuntary product. Joining may not achieve faster growth, but if you do not join, you may be squeezed out of normal track.In addition, , the US capital market, plays a vital role in chip companies, with larger financing amounts, lower costs, more comprehensive supervision and higher international recognition in the United States.

17 of the top 20 semiconductor market capitalization companies in the world come from Chip 4, of which 14 are listed in the United States; among the companies with market capitalization rankings between 21 and 40, 11 are from Chip 4, of which 10 are listed in the United States; TSMC, Samsung, Toshiba and Kioxia also have a considerable proportion of US shareholders on the board of directors of Asian companies such as TSMC, Samsung, Toshiba and Kioxia. TSMC's overseas investment accounted for 74.89% in 2021, and about 44% of the shares of Samsung Electronics are held by US investment institutions.

Not to mention that the chip industry is quite special. The "chip panic" caused by the epidemic has shown that customers are not "God". Whether China's huge market size advantage can be worried about whether it is time to start. The United States has a high chance of winning.

Optimistic believes that:

Both the United States and Japan once had an absolute dominance in the semiconductor industry. Due to the rising labor costs and the transfer of manufacturing industries, the production centers of the global chip industry are now unable to leave Asia, and it is even more impossible to increase additional costs back to the United States without supporting facilities, logistics, and away from customers. The United States' industrial subsidies and policy exclusivity model are not worth the benefits, and the investment of an advanced wafer factory may be close to US$20 billion.

This model that violates objective laws and coerces allies to prove their loyalty in the form of giving up the world's largest market is not only unsustainable for commercial enterprises, but also forces Chinese competitors to grow faster. In addition to the market, China has the most complete manufacturing industry in the world, and more than 90% of the world's rare earth and permanent magnet production capacity. It is an inevitable failure expedition to encircle China's high-tech industry and advanced manufacturing industry.

But whether pessimistic or optimistic, all parties believe that the conflicts of interest within chip 4 are quite sharp. Although "America First" is a slogan proposed by Trump, it is just to promote the long-standing tradition of unilateralism.

Chip 4 emphasizes the interests of the United States and completely excludes Europe. In the "alliance", although Taiwan Province has an absolute advantage in foundry, the US government has continuously accelerated the pace of draining TSMC on the grounds of changing the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Once advanced chip-related technologies and corporate tax payments flow to Japan and South Korea, the US government will definitely raise its sickle without hesitation.

U.S. President Biden visited Samsung semiconductor factory during his visit to South Korea, accompanied by Yoon Seo-young and Lee Jae-yong (Source: Korea Times)

For South Korea, Chip 4 is undoubtedly a "squid game": if Samsung semiconductor retreats to the United States and withdraws from China, its technology and supply chain will be separated from mastery, and the hard-built market share and supporting facilities in China will inevitably be eaten by teammates; if they do not follow the instructions of the United States to build factories in the United States, it will be difficult to pass the political situation, and they will face a blockade in technology, which will still be a catastrophe.

Moreover, South Korea has its own judgment on China's future.

Among the papers published in the internationally recognized journals of Nature and Science in 2021, 38% of papers from the United States ranked first; the United Kingdom followed closely with 12%; Germany ranked third, accounting for 9%; China has 463 academic papers published, accounting for 8% of the total number of papers, ranking fourth; South Korea has 75 papers published, ranking 20th with a share of 1%.

In the view of South Korea, even if the United States can block China's development on the chip issue, it will not undermine China's existing innovation capabilities advantages. The current shortcomings of China's advanced process chip technology may not necessarily affect the large-scale development of civilian equipment. In addition, in the fields of new energy vehicles, lithium-ion battery , China has witnessed a "counterattack" from technology backward to market leadership, South Korea hopes to make good use of the Chip 4 platform to consolidate its advantages in the semiconductor field, while maintaining close cooperation with China to strive for economic benefits - to put it bluntly, it is hoped that it will delay and postpone the "decision-making moment" and try not to choose a side station before the dust is settled. Politically, we can keep the second-last, and we can shout slogans together, but the pressure from China and the United States is left to our teammates to bear.

In the visible future, the internal affairs of the big on the dying side, the weak and the strong "sincere" and the diplomacy that does not stand out and only affordable may lead to pendulum repetition of the South Korean government's policies; with the ups and downs of internal elections and the clash between the outside world, the swing range may further increase, which will inevitably take the opportunity to fuel the "stinger" controlled by countries outside the region.

However, when the "central axis" such as geographical relations, historical origins, and people's mutual trust are stable, after the oscillation, it will inevitably be smooth.

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