Recently, Taiwan’s defense department confirmed that the Taiwan military’s 23 Tiangong-III air defense missiles have been mass-produced ahead of schedule and are expected to be delivered to the Taiwan Air Force for deployment soon. At the same time, Taiwan's defense department said it would continue to purchase a batch of extended-range Patriot -3MSE air defense missiles from the United States to strengthen the Taiwan Air Force's ability to intercept ballistic missiles . Recently, there are some signs that Taiwan is strengthening its anti-missile construction on a large scale, and Zhang Cheng, chief engineer of Taiwan's "Hsiung Feng" missile, also claimed that the interception height of the new Tiangong III missile is about 40-70 kilometers. In cooperation with the Patriot-3 When used, Taiwan's air defense system can carry out heavy-layer interception in three stages, so many Taiwanese media claim that Tiangong-III and Patriot-3 missiles can intercept mainland China's Dongfeng-21 ballistic missiles.
Judging from many data released by Taiwan, the Tiangong-III and Patriot-3 missiles are very strong, but judging from the actual combat effectiveness of the Patriot missile and the effective attributes of Taiwan's air defense system. When conducting large-scale anti-missile operations, these air defense missiles need to be deployed in open areas. In the face of our military's integrated sea, land, air and space reconnaissance methods, all Taiwan's air defense missiles will become no secret. It can be said that these air defense systems may not be able to play any role under the attack of different types of weapons of the People's Liberation Army from far, medium, near, high, medium and low.
It is reported that the "Tiangong" missile project began in 1996. In 2001, Taiwan's "Chinese Academy of Sciences" conducted the first flight test of the Tiangong-3 missile. It was only in 2015 that the operational evaluation was officially completed and delivered to the troops. It can be said that Taiwan's research and development The speed of missiles rivals India's shipbuilding speed. According to data, in the "full-strength actual test" target shooting experiment conducted by the Taiwan Air Force in 2018, the Tiangong-3 missile destroyed test targets at an altitude of more than 50 kilometers. Judging from some information released by Taiwan, the length of the Tiangong-3 anti-aircraft missile is 7 meters, the weight of the missile is 1635 kilograms, and the fastest flight speed can reach 4 Mach . This type is based on the original Tiangong-2 missile. The missile uses a two-section rocket propeller, and the body part uses numerous composite materials to reduce the weight of the missile and increase its range. According to information released by Taiwan Green Camp, the minimum firing height of the Tiangong-3 missile is about 45 kilometers, which can be increased to 70 kilometers through improvements. Its interception effect has exceeded the US Patriot-2 air defense system.
Of course, there is some bragging in this. The Tiangong-3 missile was originally an imitation of the US Patriot-2 missile. Many technologies also come from the United States, and the entire missile launch system is very similar to the US Patriot missile. It is reported that the Tiangong-3 air defense system consists of missiles, phased array radar , command vehicles and support vehicles. Each launcher can carry 4 interceptors, but the core "Changbai" phased array radar system The technology comes from the United States, and its detection range is between 0°-120°. Since the radar itself and the control system of the "Changbai" radar system are both on a carrier vehicle, the antenna cannot rotate left and right when the radar is working. If necessary, Stop and turn the shaft to adjust the engagement direction. However, this type of radar inherits the long and fast characteristics of the US military's phased array radar. Its maximum detection range can reach 300 kilometers and can monitor 100 air targets at the same time.
The new Patriot-3MSE air defense missiles that Taiwan will purchase additionally have much stronger combat performance than the Tiangong-3 missiles. It is reported that these new anti-aircraft missiles will be delivered to the Taiwan Air Force for use in 2025-2026. According to US military data, the new Patriot-3MSE missile has a body that is much larger than the previous basic version of the Patriot-3, and is equipped with a more powerful solid rocket motor. The United States has also improved the missile's composite guidance and control device on the original basis. The missile launch vehicle can load 12 launch devices at a time. After the interceptor is launched, it can hit the incoming missile at a flight speed of Mach 5. In addition, the phased array radar system equipped with this type of air defense system has the ability to scan 360 degrees in all directions, with a maximum detection range of up to 400 kilometers. It is also capable of capturing multiple low radar cross-section targets and can attack within a range of 160 kilometers. Incoming aircraft can intercept missiles at an altitude of up to 50 kilometers.
In short, judging from these theoretical data, these two missiles can indeed exert considerable power when used in conjunction with each other, but they still cannot pose a substantial threat to the mainland.
First, whether it is the Tiangong-3 air defense missile or the Patriot-3MSE, they are all derived from the US Patriot series missiles. However, the interception effect of the Patriot missiles has not been so ideal in local wars in recent years. In the 2003 Iraq war, the US military deployed thousands of Patriot-2/3 and Patriot-3MSE air defense missiles around Iraq. In actual combat, Iraq launched a total of 23 ballistic missiles and 5 css missiles at US military targets. Cruise missile , only 9 ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted, and the interception success rate was only 32%, which was far lower than the 95% dual-engine interception success rate in the test. The other 5 cruise missiles were not stopped at all.
In 2020, Iran launched a missile attack on the US military base. The interception capability of the US military Patriot defense system also performed unsatisfactory. The Tiangong-3 anti-aircraft missile developed by Taiwan based on the "Patriot-2" missile also fell off during a test in 2018, setting nearby mountains on fire. Therefore, even if the US military is supported by a powerful space early warning system, the success rate of Patriot missile interception in actual combat is far lower than the effect in testing.
Secondly, if a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the People's Liberation Army not only has the Dongfeng-21 missile to choose from, but also different types of ballistic missiles such as the Dongfeng 16, Dongfeng 17, and Dongfeng 15, which can carry out targeted attacks on important targets in Taiwan. Among them, the Dongfeng 15 has a range of At about 600 kilometers, a 500-kilogram single destructive warhead is used, which is deployed in coastal areas and can cover the entire island of Taiwan.
Judging from the actual combat effectiveness of the Patriots, the best way to deal with Taiwan's terminal interception system is to use cruise missiles. Currently, our military has two different types of cruise missiles, the Changjian-10/100, in service. Both of them have the ability to strike enemy targets thousands of kilometers away. It can be seen from some CCTV reports that the Changjian-10 missile, like the US Tomahawk missile, has the ability to penetrate stairs and enter through windows from thousands of miles away. The range of this type of missile is generally about 1,500 kilometers, and the fastest flight speed is about Mach 0.9. If the Patriot can intercept some of the Changjian-10 cruise missiles flying at subsonic speeds, then if they want to intercept them, they must use the supersonic high-altitude penetration mode. The Long Sword 100 will be more difficult.
In addition, my country's latest box-type rocket launcher has a range enough to hit Taiwan's air force bases or anti-aircraft missile sites. You must know that the pHL-191 adopts a modular design, and 2 groups of 5 can be selected according to different combat needs. 300mm rocket or 2 groups of 4 each of 37 0mm rockets and 750mm surface-to-surface missiles launch long-range strikes against enemy targets. The maximum range of the 370MM "Fire Dragon" rockets is generally between 300 and 400 kilometers, and these rockets use satellite navigation/inertial guidance technology. In terms of distance, it can basically hit most of Taiwan's missile positions. Therefore, Taiwan's Tiangong-3+Patriot-3 may not be able to display its skills in the face of long-range rocket attacks.
Thirdly, from a practical point of view, Taiwan’s terminal defense system is somewhat useless because this type of air defense missile lacks the support of a powerful early warning system or mid-course interception system. Moreover, this type of missile is generally deployed directly on the road. It has no concealment in front of various reconnaissance methods on the mainland. It is only a matter of time before it is destroyed. Mainland China's maritime electronic reconnaissance ships and airborne early warning aircraft both have strong reconnaissance capabilities. Among them, the Kongjing-2000 early warning aircraft uses an electronically scanned phased array "ESA" radar, which can perform 360-degree all-round scanning and has a detection range of more than 500 kilometers. Therefore, It is said that Taiwan’s Patriot defense system has no concealment in front of the mainland. From a military perspective, as long as the location of these missile sites or the locations of mobile deployments during war are known, the People's Liberation Army can find a variety of means to destroy them.
In short, the Patriot missile or Tiangong-3 missile is used to intercept missile warheads that re-enter the atmosphere and perform a dive attack stage. At the beginning of the design, the US military's expectation for the Patriot missile was that in the event of a conflict with other major powers, with the support of other US military combat systems, the wartime survival time of the Patriot defense system could be measured in hours. However, without the support of corresponding early warning systems or other combat systems, the survival time of Taiwan's Tiangong-3 and Patriot-3 missiles will be greatly reduced. Perhaps as military expert Du Wenlong said, the survival time of the Tiangong-3 and Patriot-3 missiles in Taiwan's hands can only be measured in minutes.
