Yesterday, Kweichow Moutai (600519) rose throughout the day, rising 3.70% to close at 2,456 yuan per share. The total market value has steadily exceeded the 3 trillion mark, successfully surpassing Shenzhen's GDP and becoming "China's third largest city".
Today, CITIC Securities released a research report stating that the company's wholesale price/stock price has hit new highs during the epidemic, which has deepened the public's understanding of Moutai, making liquor the absolute leader, and its brand status has been improved to a higher level. According to channel research, the company has recently increased the price of customized wine by about 50%, and investment in the liquor sector remains optimistic. The company has raised its one-year target price to 3,000 yuan, corresponding to a PE of 72 times in 2021, and maintains a "buy" rating.
At present, the total share capital of Kweichow Moutai is 1.256 billion shares. If calculated based on the target price of 3,000 yuan given by CITIC, the total market value of Kweichow Moutai will exceed 3.76 trillion yuan, surpassing Beijing and becoming the "second largest city in China" ".
Frequently raised target prices
As the share price of Kweichow Moutai continues to rise, many institutions have once again raised their relevant target prices.
According to relevant statistics from Tongshun-Shenzhen Research Institute, four institutions have recently updated the target price of Moutai. Among them, Nomura Oriental International Securities, Pacific Securities , and Huatai Securities have all been lower than the current price of Moutai. CITIC Securities Securities significantly raised its target price to 3,000, an increase of approximately 22% from yesterday's closing price of 2,456 yuan.
Guohai Securities , Cinda Securities , Bank of China Securities (601696), Chuancai Securities , Everbright Securities , Tianfeng Securities (601162), Shenwan Hongyuan , Zhongtai Securities (600918), Huaan Securities (600909), China Merchants Securities and other institutions did not give specific target prices, but only made performance forecasts and gave buy ratings.
Earlier, CICC’s 24% adjustment shocked the market
html On July 29, CICC (601995) said that taking into account the clear increase in the average price of Moutai and the increase in the overall valuation center of the equity market, it raised the company’s target price by 24.6% to 2109 yuan renminbi.Although the stock price was still 1,672 yuan at that time, Moutai had experienced six consecutive months of growth at that time, with an overall increase of more than 62%. There was also a view in the market that the liquor sector as a whole was overvalued and in a bubble stage. Therefore, the public is not optimistic about CICC's significantly increased target price for Moutai, and questions the fairness and rationality of its assessment.
For this reason, CICC issued another research report in December to explain its views: the old valuation system can no longer effectively evaluate the liquor sector, and the liquor valuation system has shifted from cyclical attributes to consumption attributes (high-end consumption) , performance will become the core factor in trend judgment. It was clearly pointed out in the research report that based on the calculation results of the DCF model, the reasonable market value of some leading companies next year will still have room to increase by about 20-25% compared to the current level.
Listed companies have joined the bearish army
It is worth mentioning that the original view of being short on wine was not groundless. In the capital market, relevant listed companies and even the wine company Jinshiyuan (603369) are not willing to use this high valuation. Expansion mergers and acquisitions for consideration.
On September 23, 2020, Garden City Gold (600766) announced that it would acquire 100% of the shares of Kweichow Moutai Town Shengjiao Liquor Co., Ltd. by issuing shares and paying cash to purchase assets. However, in the end, because Park City Gold and the target party could not reach an agreement on the valuation of the target company, they finally announced the termination of the major asset restructuring matter on November 4, 2020.
Liquor company Jin Shiyuan gave a more straightforward reason. It stated in the announcement: As the current market valuation of the liquor industry has undergone major changes, both partners have a clear understanding of future market development trends and the long-term strategic positioning of the company. Different opinions arose and the parties failed to reach an agreement, so the merger and acquisition plan that had been prepared in December 2019 was cancelled.
CITIC is optimistic about Moutai’s future price increases
CITIC Securities believes that in terms of brand, Kweichow Moutai ’s wholesale price/stock price has hit new highs during the epidemic, deepening the public’s recognition of Moutai. Knowledge has made liquor the absolute leader and brand status to a higher level; in terms of inventory, before and after the Spring Festival, the company launched a multi-channel price control policy, with zero inventory in the top 2021, mandatory 100% unpacking, and joint industrial and commercial inspections of sales in some markets. Successfully suppressed the hoarding of Moutai, reduced social inventory, and promoted open-bottle consumption.
At the same time, according to CITIC Securities channel research, the company has recently increased the price of customized wine by about 50%. It is expected that this part of the wine will account for 4-5% of the overall sales, and the price increase will increase revenue by 3-4%. Therefore, without considering Puffy Under the price increase, the company is expected to achieve revenue growth of nearly 15% in 2021.
CITIC Securities believes that there is still room for release in sales or prices of other non-standard products in 2021, which will effectively boost the company's performance. The 2021/2022 EPS forecast is raised to 41.8/46.6 yuan (originally 40.5/44.9 yuan). The company's one-year target price is raised to 3,000 yuan, corresponding to a PE of 72 times in 2021, and the "buy" rating is maintained.
