Source: Dute
The second summer of coexisting with the new coronavirus has passed halfway, and it is still unknown when I can truly breathe a sigh of relief, but the number has been refreshed again.
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, as of 3:21 Beijing time on August 5, 2021, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus pneumonia worldwide has exceeded 200 million. Starting from the day Wuhan was locked down, the total number of confirmed cases worldwide exceeded 100 million, which took 370 days, but it only took 191 days to grow from 100 million to 200 million.
The United States is still the country with the most confirmed cases. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that the number of new cases of COVID-19 in the United States on July 30 was as high as 101,171 in a single day, setting a record in the past six months.
Although frequent hand washing and wearing masks have gradually become a consensus, and the vaccination plan is being promoted worldwide, the new coronavirus has also undergone mutations in the process of "adapting to" human epidemic prevention measures, which has added new variables to the development of the global epidemic.
Governments have become more cautious in their prudent optimism: Wuhan, China restarts national nucleic acid testing; US President Biden requires federal government staff who are not fully vaccinated to wear masks at work; due to the surge in COVID-19 cases, the Japanese government has added four new emergency areas outside Tokyo and Okinawa Prefecture.
Regarding the possible fatigue caused by the government and the people, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus gave an extremely serious response in his speech at the 138th Plenary Session of the International Olympic Committee: "Only by eliminating threats from all places can we end the threats from a certain place. Because the epidemic in the place where you live has ended and the pandemic has ended, people who think that the pandemic has ended live in a paradise of idiots."
From Alpha to Delta, the mutant strain is a new variable of the new crown epidemic
The new crown epidemic mutant strain is an important factor in the continued uncertainty of the epidemic.
NEXTSTRAIN based on the COVID-19 data of the Global Shared Influenza Data Initiative (GISAID), 3782 sample data were collected and different types of strains were counted. In the past year, the mutant strain Delta has replaced the mainstream viruses of the previous global COVID-19 epidemic - the primitive strain and the mutant strain Alpha, becoming the main driving force of the new round of epidemic.
According to GISAID data, as of 8 pm on August 4, 2021, the Delta virus has spread to 118 countries and regions around the world, infected 347,000 patients.
Every time the mutates, the new coronavirus carries a stronger transmission power. A research literature on mutant viruses published in The Lancet found that compared with the previous alpha mutant strain, Delta's contagiousness in the UK was about 60%.
According to an internal document of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) disclosed by the Washington Post on July 29, the current infection rate of the Delta strain is between 5 and 9, that is, a new coronavirus patient can transmit the virus to up to 9 people. Its transmission power is far beyond the original strain of the new crown, SARS, smallpox and other viruses. However, chickenpox, which has a similar transmission speed to Delta, has a mortality rate far lower than that.
The infectivity and mortality distribution of different viruses. From left to right in the figure, the average number of people per patient can be infected, the vertical axis is the logarithmic axis, and from low to high indicates the proportion of the virus mortality rate from 0 to 100%. The pink area represents the distribution range of the infectivity and lethality of the original novel coronavirus strain, while the blue area represents the distribution range of the Delta mutant strain. Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), How effective is the vaccination of
on July 29, 2021?
Two studies published in the New England Journal of Medicine in July this year affirmed the effectiveness of the vaccine with real-world data.
Research conducted on 10.2 million Chilean people from February 2 to May 1, 2021 showed that for fully vaccinated people, the effectiveness of China's inactivated vaccine in preventing new coronavirus infection, preventing hospitalization and preventing patients from entering the ICU was 65.9%, 87.5% and 90.3% respectively.
Another study supported by the British Ministry of Health, using vaccination information registered in the National Immunisation Management System from October 26, 2020 to May 16, 2021, analyzed the data of infected and uninfected groups after vaccination. It was found that for people who completed the two doses of vaccination, the Pfizer vaccine and AstraZeneca vaccine were 93.7% and 74.5% of the Alpha variant strain, respectively. Although the protection against the Delta variant has been weakened - the effectiveness of the two vaccines is 88% and 67% respectively - it is still effective in inhibiting the spread of the virus.
Judging from the results of various observational research, what the public needs to make most subjective adjustments is to recognize the purpose of vaccination.
"If the goal is to slow down transmission and reduce the mortality rate, (vaccines) can bear certain protection, but as a zeroing and eradicating the epidemic of diseases, it may be the goal that vaccines cannot achieve at present... Even if each of us is vaccinated in the future, the new crown will still be epidemic, but the degree of epidemic will be reduced, and the mortality rate can be reduced." Zhang Wenhong, head of the Shanghai Clinical Treatment Expert Group for COVID-19, wrote in an article published on the official account "Huashan Infection" on August 1.
Compared to continuing to worry about the strength of the vaccine, insufficient global vaccination rate is a more urgent issue at the moment. According to statistics from Our World In Data (as of August 3, 2021), the proportion of the total vaccine vaccination population is higher than 50%, accounting for only 14%; in 63% of the countries and regions, the complete vaccine vaccination rate is less than 20%.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus calls on each country to complete a vaccination rate of at least 40% by the end of this year and increase it to 70% by the middle of next year. Judging from the current situation of the continuous increase in global cases and the huge gap in vaccination rates among countries, achieving this goal undoubtedly requires effective global cooperation.
. Before the global spread of the virus can be effectively blocked, the response strategies of governments are particularly critical. Judging from the government epidemic policy "Stringency Index" launched by the Bravatnik School of Government of Oxford University, the 20 countries with the largest number of confirmed cases are indeed frequently adjusting their response measures in the numerical fluctuations of daily new cases.
But compared with the early stages of the outbreak, with the adjustment of the government and the public's expectations for the end of the epidemic, the definition of "appropriate policies" is obviously changing. Whether to continue to catch up with the goal of zero new additions or to minimize the impact of the epidemic on normal life as much as possible, the government will need to exert considerable wisdom.
. For each individual, at the node where the global cumulative number of new coronavirus pneumonia exceeded 200 million, the repeated mention of "learning to live with the virus for a long time" by public health experts from various countries is no longer an exaggerated prediction, but a reality that has to be accepted. How to find a sustainable way to survive in fatigue and uncertainty will become a new proposition for our lifelong learning.
Source: Xinhua News Agency Pengpai News
(Original title "200 million confirmed cases worldwide, how to fight the "protracted war" of the fight against the epidemic?")
Editor Fan Jinhua Review Liu Chunsheng Review Zhan Wanrong
(Author: Dute Client Comprehensive)
This article comes from [Doute], which only represents the author's views. The national party media information public platform provides information release and dissemination services.
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