Furthermore, recently, the U.S. dollar index has also fluctuated and fallen. Starting from August 8, as of 11:45 on August 10, in three trading days, the U.S. dollar index fell by a total of 385 points. However, the recent decline in the US dollar index has not caused the offshore RMB exchange rate to rise above 6.75. Does this mean that the offshore RMB exchange rate is easy to hold at 6.7500?
Regarding this issue, the editor believes that in the short term, the offshore RMB exchange rate will hold The probability of 6.7500 is very high. First, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has continued to rise recently, starting from August 1. , as of 14:34 on August 10, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose from 2.588 to 2.807.
Recently, as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond continued to rise, this not only caused the interest rate gap between China and the United States to "invert again" ”, which has also further “widened” the interest rate gap between China and the United States.
As of now, it is As of 14:40, the yield on China's 10-year treasury bonds was at 2.752. Under normal circumstances, the yield on each issue of my country's bonds is "higher" than the yield on each issue of US bonds. Now, the yield on 10-year US bonds is 2.752. The yield on government bonds is "higher" than the yield on my country's 10-year government bonds. This phenomenon is called "inversion". At the same time, according to data, so far (1 4:45), the interest rate difference between China and the United States is 45 basis points. As we all know, capital is profit-seeking, and funds will flow to whomever has higher interest rates.
It is obvious that now, the US 10-year Treasury bond has a higher interest rate. The yield is "higher" than the yield on my country's 10-year government bonds. Therefore, the editor believes that my country's capital outflow may prevent the offshore RMB exchange rate from rising above 6.7500, that is, the offshore RMB exchange rate The rate of 6.7500 is easy to maintain.
Secondly, the exchange rate of the euro against the offshore renminbi has fluctuated and risen recently, which may also be a reason to restrain the exchange rate of the offshore renminbi from rising above 6.7500. According to the market trend chart, starting from August 8. , as of 14:56 on August 10, 3 trading days, Europe The exchange rate of the Yuan against the offshore RMB has increased by 245 points, which means that the Euro has appreciated by 0.35% relative to the offshore RMB.
Recently, the offshore RMB has continued to depreciate relative to the Euro, mainly because the market expectations of the European Central Bank continuing to raise interest rates continue. Heating up.
As we all know, in recent months, the Eurozone economy has The deterioration is closely related to the fact that inflation remains high and continues to rise. At the end of February, the price of oil and natural gas rose sharply due to the outbreak of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Coupled with the economic sanctions imposed by European and American countries on Russia, this not only The failure to alleviate the inflationary pressure in the Eurozone also further increased the inflationary pressure in the Eurozone.
As a result, the European Central Bank had no choice but to speed up. Continue to raise refinancing rates. On July 21, the European Central Bank has started to raise interest rates and raised it by 50 basis points.
Recently, due to the "trouble" of Ukraine, the demand for natural gas in the euro area has become tense again. As for the market expectations that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates, it has heated up again, thus forcing the euro to appreciate, making it difficult for the offshore RMB exchange rate to rise above 6.7500.
Third, some time ago, due to rising market sentiment about the U.S. economic recession, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points or even 75 basis points in September have cooled down, thus forcing the dollar index to fall.
However, recently, the economic data released by the United States were not as "poor" as expected, and were relatively "strong". This has ignited optimism that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50 basis points and 75 basis points in September. Therefore, this may also be an important reason why the offshore RMB exchange rate failed to rise above 6.7500.
Yesterday, although the initial value of non-agricultural unit labor costs announced by the United States in the second quarter was "higher" than market expectations, it dropped by 1.8 percentage points compared with the previous value.
Data show that the initial value of non-agricultural unit labor costs in the United States in the second quarter was 10.8%, the expected value was 9.5%, and the previous value was 12.6%.
In the second quarter, non-agricultural unit labor costs in the United States dropped by 1.8 percentage points from the previous quarter. From another perspective, this is also a market signal that U.S. inflation is about to "peak." At the same time, this also boosted market confidence in the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points and 75 basis points in September.
Therefore, the editor feels that under the combined effect of these factors, there is a high probability that the offshore RMB exchange rate will hold at 6.7500 in the short term. What do you think about this? Is it consistent with the editor’s view?
