However, the U.S. dollar index has continued to fall in recent days. Starting from August 8, as of 11:40 on August 12, in 5 trading days, the U.S. dollar index fell by a total of 1,380 points. Recently, the US dollar index has been "falling and falling", but the offshore RMB exchange rate has been "not rising". What is the reason for this?
Regarding this issue, the editor feels that in recent days, against the backdrop of the US dollar index being "falling and falling" However, the offshore RMB exchange rate "cannot rise", which is most likely because the market expectations of an "improvement" in the economies of European and American countries are affecting the RMB.
First, let’s take a look at the Eurozone economy represented by Germany. As we all know, Germany is the engine of economic growth in the Eurozone. However, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, Germany's economy was like flowers in a bottle, deteriorating day by day.
However, yesterday, an economic data released by Germany "brightened" our eyes. In June, Germany's unseasonally adjusted current account increased by 13.7 billion euros month-on-month.
data shows that Germany's current account without seasonally adjustment in June was 16.2 billion euros, compared with the previous value of 2.5 billion euros.
Everyone knows that an "increase" in a country's or region's current account and trade account will cause its currency to appreciate. Therefore, in June, Germany's unseasonally adjusted current account increased by 13.7 billion euros month-on-month, which is beneficial to the euro. Appreciated.
In addition, on August 3, Germany’s unseasonally adjusted trade account for June was also “higher” than the previous value. Data show that Germany's unseasonally adjusted trade balance in June was 7.7 billion euros, compared with the previous value of 500 million euros.
At the same time, according to historical data, before June, Germany's unseasonally adjusted trade account had fallen for three consecutive months. Data show that from January to June 2022, Germany's monthly unseasonally adjusted trade account was 35, 114, 97, 13, 5, and 77 respectively. (Unit: 100 million euros).
html In June, Germany's current account and trade account "increased" significantly, which may be a strong trend signal. Judging from the changes in the euro exchange rate, Germany's current account and trade account may be better in July.
According to the market trend chart, the exchange rate of the euro against Russian rubles has continued to rise since July. As of 14:56 today, the exchange rate of the euro against Russian rubles has increased by 83,333 in more than a month. point, that is, the euro has appreciated by 15.36% relative to ruble .
As we all know, Germany is a manufacturing export-oriented country. At the same time, it is also a major energy importer. In the first half of 2022, due to the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict and "high" global inflation, the euro continued to depreciate. This has worsened the German economy. Now that the euro has appreciated, inflation has also dropped. This is bound to be beneficial to the German economy, further promoting the appreciation of the euro, and even hindering the rise of the offshore RMB exchange rate.
Secondly, although the US dollar index has continued to fall recently, the editor feels that its continuity is not strong. In this regard, some people may not agree with the editor's view. They feel that U.S. inflation has declined in July, which will inevitably cool down market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September, forcing the U.S. dollar index to fall further.
Data show that the U.S. non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in July was 8.5%, the expected value was 8.7%, and the previous value was 9.1%. Judging from the data, in July, the annual rate of U.S. unseasonally adjusted CPI was not only "lower" than market expectations, but also dropped by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous value.
At the same time, the annual rate of PPI in the United States in July also dropped by 1.5 percentage points month-on-month. Data show that the annual PPI rate in the United States in July was 9.8%, the expected value was 10.4%, and the previous value was 11.30%.
7, although the annual rate of CPI and PPI in the United States have declined, this does not mean that the market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September have cooled down.
We can see this from the recent performance of the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield.According to the market trend chart, starting from August 1, as of 15:46 on August 12, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose from 2.588 to 2.900.
If market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September cool down, then the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond will not continue to rise in recent days.
In addition, in the first half of 2022, the U.S. economic growth slowed down, and one of the biggest constraints was the "remaining high" inflation in the United States. In July, U.S. inflation declined, which not only allowed the Federal Reserve to see the effects of continuing to raise interest rates, but also provided market confidence for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates in September. Therefore, the editor feels that market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September have not cooled down, and the continued decline of the U.S. dollar index in recent days is "temporary" and not sustainable.
Therefore, the editor feels that although the U.S. index has been "falling and falling" recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate has been "unable to rise". It is most likely because the market expectations of an "improvement" in the economies of European and American countries are restraining offshore RMB exchange rates. The RMB exchange rate has risen, so the RMB exchange rate is still hovering around 6.75! What do you think of this? Is it consistent with the editor's view?
