Taiwan will hold its quadrennial "nine-in-one" local elections on November 26 this year. Since it is regarded as a "preliminary battle for the 2024 general election," the various political parties on the island have already sharpened their knives and prepared to fight you to the death. The Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party are already battle-tested old rivals. The People's Party, which was established less than three years ago, can be described as an "electoral newcomer" and is participating in Taiwan-wide local elections for the first time. From the "two heroes competing for hegemony" between blue and green to the "three pillars" of blue, green and white, this year's "nine-in-one" local elections are bound to be more intense.
The so-called "nine-in-one election" refers to the "mayor directly under the Central Government", "municipal" councillors, county (city) chief, county (city) councillor, township (town, city) chief, township (town, city) people's representative, " Nine categories of local public officials, including the chief of the mountainous indigenous district of the municipality directly under the Central Government, representatives of the mountainous indigenous people of the municipality directly under the Central Government, and village (district) chiefs, were elected on the same day. With so many elections being held at the same time, it’s dizzying. In fact, there is only one “highlight”: the county and mayor election. In the 2014 county mayor election, the DPP won 12 county mayor seats, the KMT only won 6 seats, and those without party membership had 2 seats. In the 2018 county mayor election, the KMT made a comeback and won 14 county mayor seats in one fell swoop; Those who joined the party lost half of their power and retained only 7 seats; those who did not have party membership had 1 seat. It can be seen that among the 22 counties and cities in Taiwan, the Kuomintang currently controls the majority and has an advantage in this year's election. However, the Democratic Progressive Party is the ruling party and has huge political resources . As for the People's Party, although it is " "Newcomer", but the party leader and Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe is very popular and can boost the momentum of the entire party.
In the county and mayor elections, the mayor elections in the "six cities" are especially used as the observation indicator, because the total population of the "six cities" of Taipei City, New Taipei City , Taichung City, Kaohsiung City, Taoyuan City, and Tainan City accounts for Nearly 70% of Taiwan's population. If we can win the "six capitals", it will be beneficial to the Taiwan region's leadership election two years later. Judging from the current situation, Hou Youyi, mayor of New Taipei from the Kuomintang, is satisfied with his administration as high as 80%, far behind his opponents from the Democratic Progressive Party. Lu Xiuyan, mayor of Taichung from the Kuomintang, also has a popularity rating of over 60%. Although she has been attacked by the DPP camp, she is still 10 percentage points ahead of her opponent. In the south, Kaohsiung and Tainan are regarded as the "DPP strongholds." Especially in the past 30 years, the mayors of Tainan have been members of the DPP, so these two cities may still be in the hands of the DPP. The more suspenseful ones are Taipei City and Taoyuan City. Taipei Mayor Ko Wenzhe has been in office for eight years and will not be re-elected. The Kuomintang's popular candidate for Taipei mayor, legislator Chiang Wanan, and his opponent from the Democratic Progressive Party, "Minister of Health and Welfare" Chen Shizhong, are in a stalemate. Taoyuan citizens who join the party are said to have a leading advantage. It seems that in the mayoral elections in the "Six Cities", blue and green have equal forces.
Judging from the previous general and local elections since 2000, the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party have won and lost each other. The island calls it the "pendulum effect", that is, voters do not want one party to dominate, so a certain camp wins a big victory in an election. Afterwards, they may lose in the next election, and the defeated camp is more likely to regain lost ground in the next election, such as the pendulum swinging to the left and then to the right. But this phenomenon is not inevitable. After winning the "nine-in-one" election in 2014, the DPP won consecutive general elections and legislative elections in 2016. However, the DPP was defeated in the 2018 "nine-in-one" election, but the Democratic Progressive Party won again in the 2020 general election. In this year's local elections, compared to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, the opposition Kuomintang may be under greater pressure: it has lost the "central" power to govern. If even local power is taken away, it will not be far from bubble formation. .
The article is selected from Dagong.com
The picture is from the Internet
