On July 14, Zhonghui futures released a macro morning report, indicating that the domestic export data in June was relatively resilient, the United States CPI entered the "9 era", the Federal Reserve expectations for an interest rate hike of 100 basis points soared. '
The external market rose and fell weakly
The Dow fell 0.67%, the S&P fell 0.45%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.15%; Germany DAX rose 1.16%, and the French CAC40 fell 0.73%. U.S. oil rose 0.58% in August, and the Brent oil August contract rose 0.36%; COMEX gold rose 0.52, and silver rose 0.99%; LME copper fell 0.63%, and Jin fell 1.75%; CBOT soybean futures rose 0.28%, corn futures rose 1.79%; U.S. dollar index fell 0.1% to 108.05, continuing to hit a new high in the past 20 years.
Overseas macro: U.S. inflation hits a new high in nearly 40 years and enters the "9 era"; the possibility of a substantial 100 basis point interest rate hike in July in the United States has increased significantly
U.S. Department of Labor data shows that the U.S. CPI rose 91% year-on-year in June, which was The largest increase since November 1981, the month-on-month increase was 1.3%, a new high since September 2005; the core CPI in June increased by 5.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, and all four data were higher than market expectations. U.S. President Biden said that U.S. inflation data for June were "unacceptably high" but that the CPI data was outdated given the recent decline in gasoline prices and would give the Federal Reserve the necessary space to combat inflation.
swaps show that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 100 basis points in July has increased; the swap market shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 100 basis points in July is close to three-quarters. The U.S. interest rate futures market predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 100 basis points in July is more than 80%.
The Federal Reserve's paper has a pessimistic outlook, and the United Health Beige Book of Economic Conditions shows that overall, economic activity has expanded at a moderate pace since mid-May.
However, several regions reported growing signs of slowing demand, with respondents in five regions saying they were concerned about an increased risk of a recession. Expectations for future economic growth in the reporting regions are mostly negative.
Domestic macro: Domestic exports unexpectedly surged in June, and "forced supply suspensions" occurred in many places in the country.
China's exports in June increased by 17.9% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 16.9%. Imports in June increased by 1%, compared with 4.1% in the previous year. %. The trade surplus in June was US$97.94 billion. Compared with the same period last year, in June this year, the volume and price of imported bulk commodities such as copper and steel ore increased, the import volume of iron ore, coal and crude oil increased, and the volume and price of imported refined oil and steel products both fell. China 6 Monthly financial data exceeded expectations.
New RMB loans in the first half of the year were 13.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 91,927 yuan year-on-year. Among them, new RMB loans in June were 2.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 686.7 billion yuan year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the scale of social financing increased by 21 trillion yuan, 3.2 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, the increase in social financing in June was 5.17 trillion yuan, 1.47 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of June, it was M2 year-on-year. It grew by 11.4%, setting a new high compared to the previous year and maintaining double-digit growth for three consecutive months.
According to China Business News , in the past two days, some owners of unfinished buildings have unilaterally announced to stop repaying commercial housing mortgage loans, triggering a vigorous "forced suspension of supply". Incomplete statistics disclosed by some organizations show that there are currently More than 50 real estate developers in 15 provinces including Henan, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangxi issued public statements. Most said that if the real estate cannot resume work within a certain period of time, the owners will choose to forcibly stop repaying mortgage loans, and the risks and losses will be shared by all parties.
Market logic - Chinese economic data rebounded, global inflation declined in overseas economies, interest rate hike expectations
short-term domestic policies support the real economy and steady growth, financial data and import and export data in June were positive, but in order to ensure the economic growth target at the beginning of the year , the market expects incremental policies to be worth looking forward to, and attention will be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Overseas inflation is serious, and regulation remains the core goal of major European and American central banks. The market expects the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 100 basis points in July.
In terms of commodities, with the current domestic cost reduction and overseas anti-inflation, global economic demand is declining, bulk commodities, especially non-ferrous and other industrial products, are under greater pressure, which is good for downstream manufacturing companies.In the short term, sporadic epidemics have occurred domestically, supply suspensions have occurred in many places, and turbulence has occurred overseas, which has had a negative impact on the market. Focus on domestic economic data this week.
Source: Zhonghui Futures.
