Author: Zhukov
Recently, according to relevant news, Japan's 26th Congress Senate vote officially ended, the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Civic Party won a resounding victory. The Liberal Democratic Party won 119 seats and the Civic Party won 27 seats. The far-right forces in Japanese politics also won a resounding victory in this election. The number of seats in Congress increased from 6 to 12. What does this mean?
What does this mean? The above-mentioned parties are all parties that advocate Japan amending the constitution and reorganizing the national defense force. As Japan's military strength continues to increase, Japan's calls for the abolition of the Self-Defense Forces and the reconstruction of the army are getting louder. As the number of seats in the National Assembly advocating amending the constitution has exceeded 166, the overall number of seats has reached 177. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also officially announced that Japan will amend its constitution.
Why are there more and more people in Japan advocating amending the constitution?
first, the impact of Shinzo Abe’s death . Shinzo Abe is a typical politician of Japan’s right-wing forces. After the death of Shinzo Abe, the number of people in Japan who sympathize with the constitutional revisionists will increase, which will help the Japanese constitutional revisionists compete for more seats in the congressional elections, thereby further shifting the military and political situation in Japan to the right.
Second, the impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese economy. Japan is an export-oriented economy, and many things must be traded with foreign countries. However, as the COVID-19 epidemic impacts the Japanese economy, Japan's domestic economic strength is getting worse and worse. Japan is currently in a deep economic quagmire and cannot extricate itself. It is likely to adopt some relatively radical methods to shift people's attention from the inside to the outside. For example, launching a foreign war. After the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces provided intelligence to the Ukrainian military, and Japanese mercenaries went to Ukraine to participate in the war. Japan has shown an increasingly strong militarism.
However, if Japan wants to launch a war, it must encounter its " Peace Constitution ". The "Peace Constitution" clearly stipulates that Japan gives up the power of war and does not recognize the power of war between countries. Japan will always give up the regular armed forces of the army, navy and air force. strength. The adoption of this constitution put a legal curse on Japan, and legally blocked the possibility of Japan's armed forces launching another war and bringing disaster to the people of various Asian countries.
Therefore, Japan must do everything possible to pass a resolution to amend the "Peace Constitution", revive Japan's armed forces, and make all combat preparations for Japan's next war of aggression.
How should we interpret the future direction caused by Japan's revision of the "Peace Constitution"?
First, to what extent will Japan revise the "Peace Constitution"? This indeed fails to form a unified answer. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Civic Party in Japan want to resurrect the National Defense Forces. Japan's far-right forces want to directly expand the armaments of the National Defense Forces and establish a complete national defense mobilization system , so that Japan has the ability to form a million-strong army to launch aggressive wars during wartime. However, Japan's left-leaning political parties are unwilling to amend the constitution. Even if the constitution is revised, they must make small changes and do not abandon the core of the "Peace Constitution." Therefore, various political factions in Japan have different perceptions of amending the "Peace Constitution", which determines that Japan's amending the Constitution will not be smooth sailing.
However, it is still possible that Japan will establish a national defense force. This is because: Japan's current imaginary enemy has changed. Japan's original imaginary enemy was the Soviet Union, and the Soviet troops could land on Japan's mainland. Japan is backed by the mountain of the United States, and the US military stationed in Japan is responsible for Japan's defense tasks. Japan only needs a certain amount of Self-Defense Forces to defend its homeland, and it can be a pawn for the US military stationed in Japan.
Today, Japan not only faces the deterrence of Russia’s powerful military power, but also the deterrence of North Korea and South Korea’s military power. Although South Korea and Japan are allies of the United States, Koreans still will not forget their tragic history of being colonized and enslaved by the Japanese. Koreans have always regarded Japan as their imaginary enemy, and a war between Japan and South Korea is also possible.North Korea regards Japan as its mortal enemy. The intercontinental missiles developed by North Korea can reach the United States, and the medium-range missiles it develops can also reach the Japanese mainland.
Originally, when Japan faced the Soviet Union, with the support of the US military stationed in Japan, Japan could maintain the minimum use of its Self-Defense Forces. However, the strength of the US military stationed in Japan is likely to shrink. Coupled with the rapid growth of the military strength of North Korea and South Korea, Japan must rely on its own strength to defend its homeland to a large extent. Under this circumstance, Japan has always hoped that the Japan Self-Defense Forces will be upgraded to a national defense force with active defense capabilities. Even if it does not take the initiative to attack North Korea, South Korea and Russia, the Japanese army must develop a strong navy and air force, be ready to respond to attacks by North Korea, South Korea and Russia at any time, and cooperate with the US military to defend Japan's homeland. This is the minimum requirement for Japan to revive the Japanese army.
Second, what will be the direction of Japan after it resumes its military? The issue of is controversial, but some inferences can be made: after Japan resumes its military, the next step is to develop offensive military capabilities. Although the United States will not give the strategic bomber to Japan, it may allow Japan to develop a stronger missile force. Japan may establish a "Rocket Force" with the support of American missile technology, including medium-range missiles, long-range missiles and intercontinental missiles, imitating Russia's strategic rocket force and North Korea's rocket force to expand missiles. strength, and deploy missile units in Hokkaido and central Japan.
Once a war breaks out, Japan can use missiles to attack the Russian Far East military bases, South Korean military bases, and North Korean missile positions to preemptively strike. This is a very dangerous thing for South Korea, Russia, and North Korea. Moreover, once Japan expands its navy, Japan's ambitions will undoubtedly expand rapidly, and it may even embark on a historical cycle again. Therefore, Japan's move to expand its armaments must arouse the vigilance of people around the world.
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