Time flies, and it’s the end of the year again in a blink of an eye. U.S. stocks hit record highs amidst bouts of bearishness, becoming the “overachiever” in 2019.
So, what are the stocks that will lead the U.S. stock market to continue the bull market in 2019? Which industry does the annual performance sector fall into? Do you remember the trends that emerged from the U.S. stock market (industrial hemp, e-cigarettes, artificial meat concepts)? Looking forward to 2020, will the U.S. stock market peak and fall? What are the structural opportunities for A shares under the next overseas market mapping?
Not much to say, let’s review with CSI; let’s look forward.
The top ten bull stocks in the U.S. stock market are released
Chip stocks carry the banner
U.S. stocks have performed well overall this year, not only better than the major European stock indexes and the Nikkei 225 index, but also better than most emerging market stock indexes.
After the three major stock indexes hit all-time highs on the 26th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index set new historical highs again on the 27th. Wind data shows that as of the close of the U.S. stock market on the 27th, the S&P 500 index was firmly above 3,200 points, and the Nasdaq index also remained at a historical high above 9,000 points.
In addition, as of the close of the US stock market on the 27th, only 52 of the 505 stocks covered by the S&P 500 Index have fallen since the beginning of the year, and about 90% of the constituent stocks have risen.
Source: Wind
CSI found that among the top ten stocks with the highest increase in , chip stocks (AMS Semiconductor, Ram Research, Ketian Semiconductor, QORVO, Applied Materials) accounted for half. Harlan Sur, a chip analyst at JPMorgan Chase, believes that after experiencing the cold winter in the fourth quarter of 2018, chip manufacturers have entered a more stable and less cyclical growth stage.
In addition, Apple Inc. , which is only 3.04% away from being among the top ten in terms of growth, is also a stock that has shone brightly in the US stock market this year. 's stock price has risen by 84% throughout the year. As of the close of the US stock market on the 27th, Apple's stock price was close to US$290, at a historical high, with a total market value of US$1.29 trillion.
Since the beginning of the year, all 11 major industry sectors covered by the S&P 500 Index have risen, with technology stocks including the information technology and communications equipment sectors leading the gains.
Trends arising from the US stock market:
Industrial cannabis, e-cigarettes, artificial meat
While the US stock market continues to rise, popular investment themes emerge one after another, and have even become the direction pursued by funds in the A-share market.
Industrial Hemp
The popularity of the concept of industrial hemp in US stocks started in 2018. Tilray officially listed on Nasdaq on July 19, 2018, becoming the first industrial cannabis stock in the U.S., with a surge of more than 30% on the first day of listing. Since then, the stock price has soared wildly, increasing 12 times in two months, and then fluctuated downwards. Until the beginning of this year, Tilray's stock price started to rebound, with its stock price rising by more than 40% in two weeks.
At the beginning of this year, this wave of industrial hemp successfully spread across the Pacific Ocean and reached the A-share market. At that time, it was popular for A-shares to refer to deer as "hemp": Golden Eagle, which makes hemp cloth and hemp rope, pulled up 4 daily limits; Guifaxiang, which produces hemp flowers, also rose by 7% one day; From the start of the year to the highest point in mid-April, the share price of Hao Shares has more than quadrupled... The industrial hemp concept sector has also surged by 90% in two months.
Electronic cigarettes
From May to August this year, with the lifting of the ban on the second-generation e-cigarette IQOS in the United States, and the rising expectations of the merger of Philip Morris International and Juul, the two major leaders in the U.S. e-cigarette industry, Philip Morris International's stock price rose significantly. . At that time, the market generally believed that e-cigarettes were a relatively mature “replacement” solution for cigarettes.
However, the good times did not last long. In September this year, the U.S. Department of Health stated that 12 people in the United States had died from e-cigarette-related diseases, and announced that it planned to remove unauthorized non-tobacco-flavored e-cigarettes from the market in the next few weeks; in November, China’s State Tobacco Monopoly Administration , the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued a notice stating that Internet sales of e-cigarettes are prohibited. Many market participants lamented that this sector is afraid of going out of business.
artificial meat
Beyond Meat is the most watched star new stock in the US stock market this year.As the "first artificial meat stock", its stock price soared 163% on the first day of listing on May 2, and has continued to rise since then, creating a record of 4 times the stock price in 60 trading days.
On the first day after the May Day holiday, the “artificial meat concept” emerged in the A-share market. On the same day, against the background of the decline in the A-share market, the artificial meat concept sector set off a rising trend.
Six major factors create the "high-achieving students" in the U.S. stock market
Judging from this year's performance, there are six major factors that jointly create the performance of the "high-achieving students" in the U.S. stock market.
1. The Fed’s easing is the most powerful: After raising interest rates four times in 2018, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates a total of three times this year, and the liquidity released by these three interest rate cuts has become the main reason for supporting U.S. stocks.
2. Economic recession has not occurred: In the middle of this year, the U.S. long- and short-term Treasury bond yield curve inverted several times, which was once regarded as a precursor signal of U.S. economic recession. Ultimately, however, the U.S. economy turned out to be more optimistic than even the most pessimistic expectations.
3. Corporate repurchase power is strong: In US stocks, companies themselves have always been one of the most important participating forces in the repurchase of stocks. In 2019, the repurchase power of US listed companies is still very strong. Goldman Sachs said it expects the total value of stock repurchases by companies in the S&P 500 Index alone to reach $480 billion this year.
4. The company's profit prospects are good: listed companies have good profitability, which is actually the basis for the company's strong repurchase power. Citi expects U.S. corporate earnings to grow moderately by about 7% in 2020, and U.S. stock market returns to be about 6%-8%.
5. Popular stocks "bloom more": In addition to traditional star technology stocks, industry institutions are optimistic about the outlook for many industry sectors and individual stocks in the US stock market, which also makes the US stock market have many choices.
6. The news is "thrilling" but "not deteriorating": This year's global trade, Brexit and other news all had "thrilling" factors, but in the end it did not evolve into an obvious "deterioration", nor did it cause a significant blow to the US stock market.
The recent changes faced by these six major factors are not large, which also means that the bull market in US stocks may still continue.
David Costin, chief U.S. stock strategist at Goldman Sachs, expects the U.S. stock bull market to continue in 2020. In the near term, 's enduring profit cycle and economic expansion will push the S&P 500 to continue rising 5% from current levels in early 2020. What is the next trend of
?
For the upcoming 2020, investors are most concerned about what is the “next trend”. After all, at a time when global stock markets are closely linked, hot topics in the U.S. stock market are likely to bring structural investment opportunities to the A-share market.
opinion
UBS said that in 2020, it will pay more attention to the three emerging investment themes in US technology stocks, namely digital transformation, gene therapy, and water resources .
Citi is optimistic about US stock health care, consumer discretionary and financial sectors in 2020. Grant Bowles, vice president and fund manager of the
Franklin Equity Team, said he is optimistic about sub-sectors such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, cloud computing, network security, digital payment and financial technology in the US stock market in 2020.
Michael Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, pointed out that even if the U.S. stock market fluctuates in 2020, consumer staples, utilities and health care will become "safe havens" and have the greatest possibility of outperforming the market.
This article comes from China Securities Journal
