Source: Privy Council No. 10
On the evening of the first working day after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, many Taiwanese media became uneasy because of the latest news about the People's Liberation Army released by Taiwan's military . They all called "Communist troops dispatched" Hot words such as "28 military planes disrupted Taiwan" and "a new record" were used as headlines to hype up this large-scale operation of the People's Liberation Army. But is this action really aimed at Taiwan? After comprehensively analyzing other military developments in the sea and airspace around Taiwan's southwest that day, Liu concluded that this cruise may have multiple purposes. The timing of the PLA military aircraft's patrol in the airspace around Taiwan was closely related to the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier strike group. The time of entering Nanhai is very close, and the two may be related to a certain extent.
Taiwan’s defense department released the day’s cruise route map for PLA fighter jets on the evening of the 15th.
According to a report by China Times News Network on the 15th, according to the Taiwan Air Force’s PLA military aircraft updates released on the 15th, a total of 28 Mainland Army aircraft “intruded into the Southwest Air Defense Identification Zone” (ADIZ), and multiple Mainland Army aircraft flew from the southwest airspace to the eastern sea area. This is the day with the most sorties since Taiwan’s defense department began to announce the dynamics of mainland army aircraft in September last year.
Lao Liu consulted the data released by Taiwan’s defense department. The 28 sorties of mainland army aircraft patrolling the southwestern airspace of the Taiwan Strait include: 1 sortie of Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft, 4 sorties of H-6 aircraft, 1 sortie of Y-8 long-range aircraft, and 500 air police aircraft. 2 aircraft sorties, J-16HT fighter aircraft 14 sorties, and J-11 fighter aircraft 6 sorties. The Taiwan military claimed that in response to this action by the mainland army aircraft, it implemented "dispatching air patrol forces to respond, broadcasting to drive away, and anti-aircraft missiles to pursue and monitor".
As for the reason for the large-scale dispatch of PLA military aircraft, Taiwan media analysis believes that it is related to the "Joint Communiqué on Friendship with Taiwan" issued by the G7 summit. Taiwanese media said that the last time a joint aircraft was used to "disrupt Taiwan" on a large scale was before the meeting between US President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. On April 13, the People's Liberation Army military aircraft sent 25 sorties to "disrupt Taiwan" in one day. ”, setting the highest record in history. After that, the number of fighter patrols decreased significantly. Unexpectedly, after the G7 summit came to an end, "the activities of common machines on our side suddenly increased sharply, and the outside world asked whether it was related to the release of the joint communiqué between Taiwan and Taiwan." Taiwanese media also claimed that when fighter jets from various bases of the Taiwan Air Force scrambled to take off to monitor mainland military aircraft, Taiwan military combat management personnel also shouted in a tough tone, "If anything happens, you will be responsible for all the consequences."
It's so ridiculous. The Taiwan military seems to have become much tougher all of a sudden, with an expression like it has the backing of its master and is not afraid of anything.
However, did the mainland army planes go for the "Joint Communiqué between Friendship and Taiwan"? Lao Liu believes that this is not ruled out as a consideration, but the G7 joint communiqué was released on the 13th. The 14th coincides with the traditional festival of the Dragon Boat Festival, and Taiwan is facing the fight against the new crown virus. The serious situation of the pneumonia epidemic. The mainland army only sent a Y-8 aircraft to patrol that day in a symbolic manner. According to Taiwanese media reports on the 14th, Taiwan’s defense department issued a message that day that a mainland Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft entered Taiwan’s “Southwestern Airspace Air Defense Identification Zone” from the airspace south of the “Taiwan Strait Central Line” on the afternoon of the 14th. It is said that this is the mainland army aircraft approaching Taiwan's outer airspace again after nine days since the 4th of this month.
Lao Liu believes that the PLA military aircraft's large-scale patrols in the direction of the Taiwan Strait on the first working day after the Dragon Boat Festival may also be related to the latest trends of the USS Ronald Reagan nuclear-powered aircraft carrier strike group. The South China Sea Strategic Situational Awareness Platform was titled "USS Ronald Reagan Enters the South China Sea" on the 15th. On June 15, the European Space Agency's "Sentinel-2" satellite captured the USS "Reagan" northwest of the Nansha Islands. aircraft carrier. The news said that on June 14, the "Reagan" aircraft carrier strike group, including the cruiser "Charlotte" and the destroyer "Halsey", entered the South China Sea through the Taiwan Strait. This was the first time the "Reagan" had entered the South China Sea. The first operation in the South China Sea after the 2021 deployment will be launched on May 19.
Lao Liu checked the latest version of fleet position tracking released on the official website of the United States Naval Institute on the 14th. The "Reagan" aircraft carrier strike group began spring combat patrols on May 29 and carried out operations in the Philippine Sea .The USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier strike group is expected to support the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan later this summer.
By then, the United States may not have a forward-deployed aircraft carrier strike group in the Asia-Pacific. Of course, the possibility of the U.S. Navy urgently deploying large warships from other fleets cannot be ruled out. However, it is inevitable that the U.S. Navy will be stretched thin.
Lao Liu believes that if the "Reagan" aircraft carrier strike group stays in the South China Sea for a period of time, it does not rule out the possibility that the People's Liberation Army's naval and air forces will increase the frequency and intensity of patrols in relevant directions in the coming days.
