As high inflation prompted the Federal Reserve to gradually tighten monetary policy, the U.S. stock market performed dismally in the first half of this year, with the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index falling into bear markets on March 7 and June 13 respectively. Analy

The index fell into a bear market on March 7 and June 13 respectively. Analysts believe that this is the worst first half of the U.S. stock market in many years. Until the inflation situation continues to improve, it will be difficult for the U.S. stock market to continue to rise.

In the first half of this year, the S&P 500 index fell a cumulative 20.58%, the largest first-half decline since 1970; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell a cumulative 29.51%, down 31.32% from its historical high in November last year; The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 15.31%.

U.S. recession worries continue

Market concerns are that the United States may experience a recession later this year or in 2023.

U.S. Department of Commerce data showed that the U.S.’s real gross domestic product fell by 1.6% at an annual rate in the first quarter of this year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous data. The latest macro indicators such as the Purchasing Managers' Index, House Price Index and Investor Confidence all declined.

This is the U.S. Department of Commerce building taken in Washington, the United States, on April 28. (Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Jie)

Nicholas Colas, co-founder of the "Data Trek" research company, a market research organization, said that the U.S. economy is cooling rapidly.

Ethan Harris, head of global economic research at Bank of America, said that due to weak consumer data in May, the institution has lowered its U.S. second-quarter economic forecast from the previous quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.5% to flat quarter-on-quarter.

Generally speaking, an economy experiencing two consecutive quarters of negative growth is considered to be in a technical recession. Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said that in this regard, the U.S. economy is indeed in danger of recession.

Former US Treasury Secretary and Harvard University Professor Summers said that in the next two years, the United States will almost inevitably experience an economic recession.

The earnings season may trigger a new round of decline

At the same time, the US department store Kohl's, Global Health Services, pharmacy chain Walgreens and Nike Inc. all reported negative results, triggering a significant decline in stock prices. In the upcoming second-quarter earnings season, more companies are expected to lower their performance expectations.

Greg Marcus, executive director of UBS Private Wealth Management, said that weak performance expectations from companies may further increase downward pressure on the stock market.

Michael Burry, founder of the American Sion Asset Management Company, warned that the collapse of the financial market is only halfway through, and the next step for companies There will be a fall in earnings.

Ross Mayfield, an investment strategy analyst at Robert Baird Asset Advisors, said that corporate performance in the second and third quarters will dominate the extent of the stock market decline, and there may not be a new bull market until inflation and its expectations are controlled. Appear.

UBS Group said that taking into account the trend of the US economy, the market may still be full of volatility in the second half of the year. Until inflation is brought under control and the Fed signals it will pause or stop raising interest rates, market sentiment is unlikely to see a lasting improvement.