has been coming out for a long time. This time the oil price adjustment is finally no longer half-hidden.
According to the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission, starting from 24:00 on July 12, 2022, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will decrease by 360 yuan and 345 yuan per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in various provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and central cities are as follows:
According to this oil price adjustment standard, No. 92 gasoline will be reduced by 0.28 yuan per liter; No. 95 gasoline will be reduced by 0.30 yuan per liter; No. 0 diesel The price is reduced by 0.29 yuan per liter, which is equivalent to saving more than 14 yuan by filling up a 50-liter tank of gasoline. The magnitude of this reduction is quite obvious.
After this oil price adjustment, the latest oil prices in each province starting tomorrow will be as follows:
According to this oil price data, after this oil price adjustment, except for the special situation in Hainan and Tibet, No. 92 in other provinces across the country Gasoline will fall back to less than 8 yuan across the board. The highest price is about 8.94 yuan in Yunnan Province, while the lowest price in Xinjiang is only about 8.5 yuan.
In addition, the average price of No. 95 gasoline nationwide is basically between 9.13 yuan and 9.59 yuan. The highest price of No. 95 gasoline is 9.59 yuan in Yunnan Province, and the lowest is 9.13 yuan in Xinjiang.
html The national average price of No. 10 diesel oil is 8.19 yuan. Between 1 yuan and 9 yuan, except for the special situations of Hainan and Tibet, the highest price of No. 0 diesel is 8.58 yuan in Guizhou Province, and the lowest is 8.19 yuan in Xinjiang.
This time the oil price has been lowered for the second time this year after June 28. It is also the only time the oil price has been lowered continuously during the year, which is relatively rare.
Then why can domestic refined oil prices experience two consecutive declines? Will oil prices rise or fall in the future? Is it possible to usher in three consecutive declines?
The reason why domestic refined oil prices have fallen this time is mainly because the international crude oil prices have dropped significantly.
Within this round of refined oil adjustment cycle, due to the impact of various factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the strengthening of global economic recession expectations, commodity prices have fallen significantly. Among them, the price of crude oil has dropped significantly. In July On the 5th, crude oil prices even fell by more than 8% in a single day.
Against the background of the obvious decline in international crude oil prices, it is normal for domestic refined oil products to follow suit.
After seeing the drop in oil prices, many car owners are very happy. In addition, everyone hopes that the oil price will fall further, preferably to the era of 6 yuan.
However, in the short term, it is unrealistic to allow refined oil to fall back to the 6 yuan era, but even if it cannot fall to the 6 yuan era, it is acceptable to continue to fall further.
Is it possible that refined oil products will continue to fall in the future? Is it possible to usher in the first wave of three consecutive declines this year?
Regarding this issue, it is difficult to judge based on the current trend of international crude oil prices. The international crude oil market has been in a state of shock during this period, and refined oil has been fluctuating around US$105. As for whether international crude oil will rise or fall in the future, The key depends on the market's expectations for the global economy and the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.
On the evening of July 13th, the Federal Reserve will announce the U.S. CPI and core CPI at the end of June. This data will have a great impact on the trend of oil prices. If the U.S. CPI still increases significantly in June, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve may continue Take a 75 basis point hike on and .
In May, the CPI and core CPI of the United States were 8.6% and 6% respectively. According to the current data model prediction, the CPI and core CPI of the United States in June will reach 8.8% and 5.8%, which means that the overall CPI of the United States CPI continues to rise, so there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points. The continuous decline in international crude oil in the past two days is the best reaction of the market.
If the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in the future, market liquidity will be further reduced, the U.S. dollar index will continue to strengthen, which will have a further squeeze-out effect on commodities, so we do not rule out the possibility of crude oil prices falling after the 13th There is also the possibility of further decline . In the future, crude oil prices may fluctuate between US$100 and US$105. As a result, during the next round of refined oil adjustment window period, which is July 26, domestic refined oil is expected to usher in Three consecutive declines during the year.
Of course, what kind of trend the international crude oil price will eventually have, we have to look at the observations during the new round of refined oil adjustment cycle to know the final answer.
