Question: "Second Senior Brother" exerts his efforts, and the year-on-year increase in CPI in June may expand. On July 9, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the national consumer price index for June. Due to factors such as the recent rapid rise in pork prices, many

China News Service, July 9th, title: "Second Senior Brother" exerts his efforts, and the year-on-year increase in CPI in June may expand

China News Service reporter Xie Yiguan

html On July 9, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the national consumer price in June Index (CPI), the recent rapid rise in pork prices and other factors, many institutions predict that the year-on-year increase in CPI in June may expand.

htmlThe year-on-year increase in CPI in 16 may expand

htmlIn May, the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation improved, and the consumer market supply was generally sufficient, and the CPI remained stable year-on-year.

CPI increase and decrease trend chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics

html What will be the CPI in June compared with the same period last year? According to statistics from Flush iFinD, the average forecast value of 16 institutions for the year-on-year increase in CPI in June is 2.43%. If the above-mentioned average forecast value comes true, the year-on-year increase in CPI in June will expand.

monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that in June, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 21.57 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.3% month-on-month, and a decrease of 8% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of vegetables was 3.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 13.1% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. up 1.9%.

CITIC Securities said that the average price of pork in June increased month-on-month. Taking into account the price level in the same period last year, it is expected that the drag of pork prices on CPI in June may be further reduced.

"Considering that my country's epidemic situation has improved in June, the resumption of work and production has been steadily advancing, and offline and contact-based consumer demand has increased significantly," CITIC Securities predicts that CPI may show a moderate upward trend in June.

Industrial Securities believes that as pig production capacity continues to be reduced, pig prices have bottomed out and rebounded, and the pig cycle has begun an upward cycle. In addition, the strong increase in crude oil prices in May led to a month-on-month increase in gasoline prices in June. However, June is the season when vegetables and fruits are on the market in large quantities, and the prices of vegetables and fruits fall seasonally. Looking at the comprehensive base, the CPI in June is expected to record 2.4% year-on-year.

Will my country face inflationary pressure in the future?

In a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing, a reporter from Sino-Singapore Finance noticed that on June 24, the price of front and back tips was still 14.8 yuan per catty, and pork belly was 18.8 yuan per catty. A week later (July 1), the price of front tip and back tip has risen to 16.8 yuan per catty, and the price of pork belly has risen to 20.8 yuan per catty.

Data map: Chongming, Shanghai, residents buy pork at the Miao Town Market. Photo by China News Service reporter Tian Yuhao

Pig prices are rising rapidly, and relevant departments are also intensively taking action. On July 4 and 5, the National Development and Reform Commission made three statements to deploy work to ensure supply and stable prices in the pig market.

According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of 14:00 on July 8, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 28.98 yuan/kg, down 0.4% from the 7th, and is now in a correction trend.

Pork price is one of the important factors affecting monthly CPI. Zheng Houcheng, a macro researcher at Yingda Securities, believes that looking forward to June to October, the probability of the "lard resonance" phenomenon is low. In terms of pork CPI year-on-year, against the backdrop of a unilateral decline in the average wholesale price of pork from June to October 2021, it is expected that pork CPI from June to October 2022 will rise steadily year-on-year.

html In May, the CPI of the United States and the United Kingdom increased by 8.6% and 9.1% respectively, reaching a 40-year high; the CPI of the Eurozone increased by 8.1% year-on-year, setting another record high; the CPI of many emerging economies increased by more than 10%, and a few countries Even reaching more than 50%.

Will my country face inflationary pressure in the future? Meng Wei, spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, previously stated that looking forward to the latter part of this year, my country's production of important livelihood commodities such as grains, oils, meat, eggs, milk, fruits, and vegetables will be stable and in sufficient supply. Especially with the large number of seasonal fresh agricultural products on the market, market supply will continue to increase. In addition, Logistics congestion points in various regions have been effectively alleviated, cross-regional transportation capabilities have been significantly enhanced, and there is a solid foundation for stabilizing consumer prices. Domestic CPI will continue to operate within a reasonable range and can achieve the expected target of about 3% for the whole year. (End)